Houston TX, U.S.A. Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Mackenzie McDonald: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Rank: #83
47%
VS

Mackenzie McDonald

Rank: #125
53%
Expected Total Games: 23.1
Predicted Winner: Mackenzie McDonald

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Ranking Trends

Thiago Agustin Tirante

  • Current #83 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #106 2025-12-29
  • 6 mo ago #97 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #121 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #111 2025-03-31

Mackenzie McDonald

  • Current #125 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #114 2025-12-29
  • 6 mo ago #99 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #88 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #100 2025-03-31

Player Metrics

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Form Index: 60.4
ELO Rating: 1602.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1661.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 71.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 53.3
Clay: 38.7
Grass: 40.4
Serve Rating: 67.5
Return Rating: 65.4

Mackenzie McDonald

Form Index: 59.9
ELO Rating: 1574.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1572.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 79.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 51.4
Clay: 37.7
Grass: 40.6
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 89.5

Recent Matches

Thiago Agustin Tirante
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Colton Smith (1-0) clay Houston 71 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Cerundolo (0-2) hard Miami 84 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Valentin Royer (2-1) hard Miami 204 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Martin Landaluce (1-2) hard Miami 153 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Diego Dedura (2-0) hard Miami 72 min

Mackenzie McDonald
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jenson Brooksby (2-0) clay Houston 79 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Martin Landaluce (0-2) hard Miami 80 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Cameron Norrie (0-2) hard Indian Wells 81 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Matteo Arnaldi (1-0) hard Indian Wells 62 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Trevor Svajda (2-0) hard Indian Wells 67 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Thiago Agustin Tirante
vs
0
Mackenzie McDonald
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Houston, TX — Round of 16 on clay at an ATP 250 event pits Thiago Agustin Tirante against Mackenzie McDonald in a match that projects to be tight and tactical. The model gives McDonald the edge: Mackenzie McDonald 53.04% to Thiago Agustin Tirante 46.96%, with a predicted total of about 23.05 games.

Match Analysis

Tirante arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 83) with a slightly superior Elo (1602.9) and a form index of 60.4, while McDonald is ranked 125 with a 59.85 form index and an Elo of 1574.7. Both players show modest clay credentials — Tirante’s surface strength index is 38.73 and McDonald’s 37.69 — effectively level in surface comfort. Fatigue is a factor: Tirante has logged 71 minutes in the event so far, McDonald 79 minutes, so both have had recent court time but McDonald slightly more. There’s a notable contrast in serving and returning tools. McDonald’s mean serve index (97.60) comfortably exceeds Tirante’s (67.54) by well over 5 points, and his mean return index (89.49) also tops Tirante’s (65.42) by a large margin; those gaps favour McDonald on both serve and return metrics in raw scoring. Recent form backs a competitive picture: Tirante beat Colton Smith in Houston after a long marathon win in Miami qualifying and a straight-sets loss to Francisco Cerundolo, while McDonald defeated Jenson Brooksby in Houston but carries two prior hard-court losses in Miami and Indian Wells.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.1 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Thiago Agustin Tirante - Mackenzie McDonald) -0.7 Most likely spread: -1 (Mackenzie McDonald wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Aces prediction for the match sits at a modest 9.92 total; clay’s slower pace typically suppresses big-serving numbers, so the predicted aces are lower than on faster surfaces. The predicted aces figure is nevertheless boosted by McDonald’s substantially higher serve rating, which should concentrate most ace production on his service games. Double faults prediction is 5.15 expected double faults for the match, reflecting clay’s longer rallies and accumulated fatigue raising error risk.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 9.9 Most likely: 9 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.2 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

McDonald’s superior serve and return indices give him the narrow edge in a matchup otherwise balanced by ranking and form. The key factor to watch will be how effectively McDonald converts serve power into free points on clay and whether fatigue influences the frequency of double faults late in sets.

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