Bucharest Romania Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Roberto Bautista Agut vs Titouan Droguet: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Roberto Bautista Agut

Rank: #80
51%
VS

Titouan Droguet

Rank: #122
49%
Expected Total Games: 23.8
Predicted Winner: Roberto Bautista Agut

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Ranking Trends

Roberto Bautista Agut

  • Current #80 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #90 2025-12-29
  • 6 mo ago #56 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #42 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #52 2025-03-31

Titouan Droguet

  • Current #122 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #153 2025-12-29
  • 6 mo ago #166 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #194 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #210 2025-03-31

Player Metrics

Roberto Bautista Agut

Form Index: 44.3
ELO Rating: 1540.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1537.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 51.3
Clay: 39.8
Grass: 41.1
Serve Rating: 76.4
Return Rating: 68.8

Titouan Droguet

Form Index: 43.0
ELO Rating: 1581.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1733.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 52.2
Clay: 40.6
Grass: 41.0
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 87.7

Recent Matches

Roberto Bautista Agut
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Karen Khachanov (0-2) hard Miami 73 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs James Duckworth (2-0) hard Miami 126 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Jack Draper (1-2) hard Indian Wells 105 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Fabian Marozsan (2-1) hard Indian Wells 140 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Cameron Norrie (0-2) hard Rotterdam 114 min

Titouan Droguet
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (1-2) hard Montpellier 147 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Tallon Griekspoor (2-0) hard Montpellier 106 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (2-1) hard Montpellier 114 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jan Choinski (2-0) hard Montpellier 84 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Ugo Blanchet (2-1) hard Montpellier 137 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Roberto Bautista Agut
vs
0
Titouan Droguet
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Bucharest 250-level event in Romania, round of 32 on clay sets up a contrast in styles as Roberto Bautista Agut meets Titouan Droguet. The model nudges Bautista Agut as the slight favorite — 51.24% to Droguet’s 48.76% — with a projected total of roughly 24 games in the match (23.77).

Match Analysis

Bautista Agut arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 80) with a solid form index (44.31) and an Elo of 1540.2; his surface strength index on clay is 39.82 and he shows a reliable return profile (mean return index 68.77). Droguet, ranked 122, carries a marginally lower form index (42.95) but a higher Elo (1581.7) and nearly identical clay strength (40.61). Fatigue is neutral for both — neither has minutes on court in this event so both should be fresh. Where the matchup is stark is serving and returning: Droguet’s mean serve index (96.56) substantially outguns Bautista Agut’s (76.38) by more than 20 points, and his mean return index (87.75) also sits well above Bautista Agut’s. Those gaps suggest Droguet can both produce more free points on serve and handle Bautista Agut’s baseline consistency more aggressively. Recent form favors Droguet on a hot streak in Montpellier (two wins, then a loss to Felix Auger‑Aliassime), while Bautista Agut is 1–2 in his last three, with his wins and losses coming on hard courts; neither has recent clay results in the sample provided.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.8 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Roberto Bautista Agut - Titouan Droguet) +1.8 Most likely spread: +2 (Roberto Bautista Agut wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at an expected 16.29 for the match, with an expected double faults total of 6.2. On clay, predicted aces normally dip because the slower surface with higher bounce gives returners time to react, so those 16.29 predicted aces are modest for two service-oriented players. Given Droguet’s significantly higher serve rating, the predicted aces skew toward him, while the expected double faults reflect the clay-driven tendency for longer, more grinding service games and potential lapse points.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.3 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.2 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Bautista Agut’s edge comes from consistency and ranking experience on tour, enough to nudge him in a tight clay duel. The key factor to watch is Droguet’s serve — if his high serve index translates to free points on this slower surface, he can swing the match; if Bautista Agut neutralizes that weapon, the favorite holds the advantage.

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