Monte Carlo Monaco Clay Masters 1000 Round of 64

Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Grigor Dimitrov: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Rank: #31
63%
VS

Grigor Dimitrov

Rank: #93
37%
Expected Total Games: 24.2
Predicted Winner: Tomas Martin Etcheverry

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Player Metrics

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Form Index: 57.0
ELO Rating: 1747.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1825.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 56.8
Clay: 43.7
Grass: 40.0
Serve Rating: 80.8
Return Rating: 69.7

Grigor Dimitrov

Form Index: 28.7
ELO Rating: 1540.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1536.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 54.6
Clay: 40.4
Grass: 44.6
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 88.8

Recent Matches

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

  • Last Match: vs Tommy Paul (0-2) clay Houston 96 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Alex Bolt (2-1) clay Houston 132 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Federico Agustin Gomez (2-1) clay Houston 117 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Tommy Paul (0-2) hard Miami 74 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Rafael Jodar (2-0) hard Miami 110 min

Grigor Dimitrov

  • Last Match: vs Raphael Collignon (1-2) hard Miami 151 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-2) hard Indian Wells 66 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Terence Atmane (2-1) hard Indian Wells 145 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Terence Atmane (0-2) hard Acapulco 82 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Alex Michelsen (1-2) hard Dallas 125 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
vs
0
Grigor Dimitrov
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Monte-Carlo, Round of 64 on clay at the Masters 1000 in Monaco delivers a tasty contrast in styles as Tomas Martin Etcheverry meets Grigor Dimitrov. The model backs Etcheverry to prevail (63.12% vs 36.88%) with a predicted total of about 24.2 games, suggesting a match of moderate length rather than an extended three-set classic.

Match Analysis

Etcheverry arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 31) with a stronger form index (57.0) and a superior Elo (1747.7) compared with Dimitrov’s rank of 93, form 28.7 and Elo 1540.3. Both show similar clay affinity—Etcheverry’s surface strength index is 43.7 to Dimitrov’s 40.4—so surface comfort is not a decisive gap. Fatigue is neutral for both with zero minutes logged in the event so far. The serve/return profiles diverge: Dimitrov’s mean serve index (97.4) is substantially higher than Etcheverry’s (80.8), and Dimitrov also posts a markedly better mean return index (88.8 vs 69.7), differences that will shape key exchanges. Recent form underlines the prediction: Etcheverry has two wins and a loss in his last three (wins over Alex Bolt and Federico Agustín Gómez on clay, followed by a loss to Tommy Paul), showing rhythm on the surface. Dimitrov has been patchy—one win (Terence Atmane) and back-to-back losses to Carlos Alcaraz and Raphael Collignon, both on hard courts—reflecting lower recent momentum and adaptability concerns when shifting surfaces and opponents.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.2 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Tomas Martin Etcheverry versus Grigor Dimitrov. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Tomas Martin Etcheverry versus Grigor Dimitrov. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Grigor Dimitrov) +1.7 Most likely spread: +1 (Tomas Martin Etcheverry wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Tomas Martin Etcheverry versus Grigor Dimitrov. Positive values indicate Tomas Martin Etcheverry winning more games, negative values indicate Grigor Dimitrov winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Tomas Martin Etcheverry versus Grigor Dimitrov. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at 13.28 for the match while the predicted double faults are 7.69. On clay, expected aces typically fall because the slower, high-bouncing surface reduces serve penetration, so the predicted aces are tempered despite Dimitrov’s big-serve profile. Given Dimitrov’s significantly higher serve rating, he likely accounts for a large share of the predicted aces, while the expected double faults may creep up late in rallies or pressure situations.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.3 Most likely: 13 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 7.7 Most likely: 7 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Tomas Martin Etcheverry versus Grigor Dimitrov. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Tomas Martin Etcheverry versus Grigor Dimitrov. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Tomas Martin Etcheverry versus Grigor Dimitrov. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Tomas Martin Etcheverry versus Grigor Dimitrov. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Etcheverry’s higher ranking, recent clay form and superior Elo give him the edge; Dimitrov’s serving firepower is the counterbalance. Watch the return/serve exchanges—if Etcheverry can neutralize Dimitrov’s serve early, the match should tilt decisively.

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