Miami FL, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 32

Rafael Jodar vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Rafael Jodar

Rank: #109
40%
VS

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Rank: #32
60%
Expected Total Games: 22.9
Predicted Winner: Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Rafael Jodar

  • Current #109 2026-03-16
  • 3 mo ago #168 2025-12-15
  • 6 mo ago #325 2025-09-15
  • 9 mo ago #1000 None
  • 12 mo ago #901 2025-03-03

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

  • Current #32 2026-03-16
  • 3 mo ago #59 2025-12-15
  • 6 mo ago #63 2025-09-15
  • 9 mo ago #63 2025-06-16
  • 12 mo ago #44 2025-03-17

Player Metrics

Rafael Jodar

Form Index: 53.9
ELO Rating: 639.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1713.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 329.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.2
Clay: 3.1
Grass: 2.9
Serve Rating: 55.0
Return Rating: 48.8

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Form Index: 59.4
ELO Rating: 1023.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1650.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 157.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.1
Clay: 9.4
Grass: 7.1
Serve Rating: 98.1
Return Rating: 90.2

Recent Matches

Rafael Jodar
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Vukic (2-0) hard Miami 55 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Yannick Hanfmann (2-1) hard Miami 112 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Benjamin Bonzi (2-0) hard Miami 75 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Manas Dhamne (2-0) hard Miami 87 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Tabilo (0-2) hard Indian Wells 58 min

Tomas Martin Etcheverry
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Zizou Bergs (2-0) hard Miami 157 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Denis Shapovalov (1-2) hard Indian Wells 158 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Tabilo (2-1) clay Rio 184 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Vit Kopriva (2-1) clay Rio 237 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jaime Faria (2-0) clay Rio 123 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Rafael Jodar
vs
0
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Miami Masters in Florida, round of 32 on hard courts, Tomas Martin Etcheverry is favored to progress against Rafael Jodar. The model gives Etcheverry a 60.46% probability of winning versus Jodar’s 39.54%, with an expected total of about 22.9 games in the match — suggesting a straight-sets outcome is likeliest.

Match Analysis

The two players present a clear contrast on paper. Etcheverry arrives as world No. 32 with an Elo of 1023.24 and a form index of 59.4, while Jodar is ranked 109 with an Elo of 639.70 and a form index of 53.9. Fatigue is a notable factor: Jodar has logged 329 minutes already in Miami compared to Etcheverry’s 157, which could blunt Jodar’s legs in extended rallies. Both carry modest surface strength indices on hard courts (Jodar 5.18, Etcheverry 9.14), though Etcheverry’s figure is higher. Serve and return profiles heavily favor Etcheverry. His mean serve index (98.05) is substantially higher than Jodar’s (54.98) — a difference large enough to shape the match — and his mean return index (90.17) also outstrips Jodar’s (48.76) by a wide margin. Over the last three matches Jodar has been in excellent tournament form, winning all three matches in Miami with relatively short match times (55, 112, 75 minutes). Etcheverry’s recent results are solid but mixed: wins in Miami and Rio sandwich a loss to Denis Shapovalov at Indian Wells; his matches tend to be longer affairs (157 and 184 minutes), showing staying power when needed.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.9 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Rafael Jodar - Tomas Martin Etcheverry) +6.5 Most likely spread: +8 (Rafael Jodar wins 8 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The model’s aces prediction sits at 8.89 for the match and the expected double faults total 6.37. On a medium-paced hard court, the expected aces and expected double faults align with a balance between power and consistency; hard courts typically produce a moderate ace count. Given Etcheverry’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to drive much of the predicted ace count and can push returners into riskier play, which may also influence the double faults prediction.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.9 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Etcheverry’s superior serve and return metrics, combined with a ranking and Elo advantage and lower fatigue, give him the edge in Miami. Watch how Etcheverry’s serve dominance forces short points — that will be the decisive factor.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel