London Great Britain Grass Atp 500 Round of 16

Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Tommy Paul

Rank: #28
65%
VS

Botic van de Zandschulp

Rank: #56
35%
Expected Total Games: 26.8
Predicted Winner: Tommy Paul

Why the Model Favors Tommy Paul

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +5.1 Tommy Paul
Recent record by level +4.8 Tommy Paul
Surface fit +4.6 Tommy Paul
Serve & return game +4.4 Botic van de Zandschulp
Recent form +3.1 Tommy Paul

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 65% for Tommy Paul. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Tommy Paul

  • Current #28 2026-06-15
  • 3 mo ago #23 2026-03-16
  • 6 mo ago #20 2025-12-15
  • 9 mo ago #15 2025-09-15
  • 12 mo ago #8 2025-06-16

Botic van de Zandschulp

  • Current #56 2026-06-15
  • 3 mo ago #65 2026-03-16
  • 6 mo ago #77 2025-12-15
  • 9 mo ago #83 2025-09-15
  • 12 mo ago #91 2025-06-16

Player Metrics

Tommy Paul

Form Index: 50.7
ELO Rating: 1824.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1876.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 85.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 36.7
Clay: 37.5
Grass: 18.1
Serve Rating: 94.9
Return Rating: 91.8

Botic van de Zandschulp

Form Index: 40.6
ELO Rating: 1631.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1704.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 114.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.1
Clay: 16.7
Grass: 11.7
Serve Rating: 94.9
Return Rating: 87.9

Recent Matches

Tommy Paul
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Zachary Svajda (2-0) grass London 85 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Casper Ruud (2-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Lorenzo Sonego (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Rinky Hijikata (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Ignacio Buse (1-2) clay Hamburg 183 min

Botic van de Zandschulp
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Harry Wendelken (2-0) grass London 114 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Tallon Griekspoor (1-2) grass S Hertogenbosch 134 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Cerundolo (1-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Karen Khachanov (1-2) clay Rome 148 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (2-1) clay Rome 127 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tommy Paul
vs
0
Botic van de Zandschulp
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the London grass event, round of 16 action sees Tommy Paul face Botic van de Zandschulp in a 500-level tournament on the quickest surface. The model picks Tommy Paul to advance (65.32% win probability) over van de Zandschulp (34.68%), with a predicted total of about 26.8 games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Paul is driven primarily by overall strength and recent results at comparable levels, with surface fit also tipping the balance toward him. Paul’s rank (28), higher Elo (1824.16) and better form index (50.69) underpin the overall-strength advantage; his surface strength index (18.13) and strong mean return index (91.81) suggest he translates his baseline game well to grass. Recent form also favors Paul—he beat Zachary Svajda in two sets in London and has two solid wins in his last three matches, with a five-set loss to Casper Ruud in between that required long court time. Van de Zandschulp carries the counterweight in serve-and-return metrics: his mean serve index (94.94) is essentially on par with Paul, and his return index (87.85) is competitive. However, his lower rank (56), lower Elo (1631.06) and weaker form index (40.65) leave him on the back foot. Fatigue is a real factor—Botic has 114 minutes on court already this tournament versus Paul’s 85, which the model factored into the probability. Over the last three matches, Botic has one straight-sets grass win in London but suffered defeats at s-Hertogenbosch and Roland Garros, showing less consistency than Paul.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.8 Most likely outcome: 26 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tommy Paul - Botic van de Zandschulp) +1.5 Most likely spread: +1 (Tommy Paul wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this grass match is high: the model’s predicted aces total is 14.81. Grass amplifies serve rewards, so predicted aces are elevated compared with slower surfaces. The double faults prediction is 5.52 for the match; given both players show similarly high serve indices, neither dominates the ace count by a wide margin, so expected double faults remain moderate.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.8 Most likely: 14 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.5 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

41.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Tommy Paul's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (38.3%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Paul’s edge comes chiefly from overall strength (the top model factor) and stronger recent results at higher levels, combined with a better return profile on a surface that still rewards clean serving. Watch fatigue and serve performance—if van de Zandschulp’s serve holds up and Paul tires, the match could tighten; otherwise Paul’s depth and recent form should carry him through.

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