Tommy Paul vs Raphael Collignon: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Paul arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 23) with a substantially higher Elo (1830.31) and a slightly stronger form index (51.41) than Collignon (rank 72, Elo 867.45, form 43.38). Fatigue is a notable factor: Paul has logged 127 minutes in this event while Collignon is visibly more taxed at 245 minutes. Surface strength indices are low for both on hard courts (Paul 14.30, Collignon 8.45), but Paul’s game metrics suggest steadier baseline play. The mean serve index gap is large (Paul 61.14 vs Collignon 97.61), and the mean return gap is similarly wide (Paul 53.94 vs Collignon 90.66), underlining that Collignon’s profiles for both serving and returning stand out in the raw indices. Recent form tells a mixed story. Paul has two wins in his last three matches (including a hard-court five-set victory earlier in Miami vs Mannarino) and one straight-sets loss at Indian Wells to Joao Fonseca. Collignon has been impressive here, beating Flavio Cobolli in straight sets and taking down Grigor Dimitrov in a long 151-minute encounter, with a prior loss to Fonseca at Indian Wells. Those Miami wins give Collignon momentum, but the cumulative minutes could blunt that edge.