Miami FL, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 16

Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Tommy Paul: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Rank: #32
40%
VS

Tommy Paul

Rank: #23
60%
Expected Total Games: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Tommy Paul

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Ranking Trends

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

  • Current #32 2026-03-16
  • 3 mo ago #59 2025-12-15
  • 6 mo ago #63 2025-09-15
  • 9 mo ago #63 2025-06-16
  • 12 mo ago #44 2025-03-17

Tommy Paul

  • Current #23 2026-03-16
  • 3 mo ago #20 2025-12-15
  • 6 mo ago #15 2025-09-15
  • 9 mo ago #8 2025-06-16
  • 12 mo ago #13 2025-03-17

Player Metrics

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Form Index: 87.3
ELO Rating: 1778.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1849.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 267.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 52.1
Clay: 41.8
Grass: 38.1
Serve Rating: 79.1
Return Rating: 54.2

Tommy Paul

Form Index: 70.9
ELO Rating: 1799.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1837.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 267.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 75.5
Clay: 71.5
Grass: 62.4
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 90.0

Recent Matches

Tomas Martin Etcheverry
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Rafael Jodar (2-0) hard Miami 110 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Zizou Bergs (2-0) hard Miami 157 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Denis Shapovalov (1-2) hard Indian Wells 158 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Tabilo (2-1) clay Rio 184 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Vit Kopriva (2-1) clay Rio 237 min

Tommy Paul
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Raphael Collignon (2-1) hard Miami 140 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Adrian Mannarino (2-1) hard Miami 127 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Joao Fonseca (0-2) hard Indian Wells 82 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Zizou Bergs (2-0) hard Indian Wells 68 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Korda (0-2) hard Delray Beach 82 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
vs
0
Tommy Paul
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Miami Masters in Florida, the round-of-16 clash on hard courts pits Tomas Martin Etcheverry against Tommy Paul in a high-stakes Masters 1000 tie. The model projects Tommy Paul as the favorite, with a 60.43% chance to win versus Etcheverry’s 39.57%, and an expected total of roughly 24.01 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Etcheverry (rank 32) arrives with an eye-catching form index of 87.29 and an Elo of 1778.21; his surface strength on hard courts is moderate at 52.14. Paul (rank 23) has a slightly higher Elo (1799.53) but a lower form index (70.87), and boasts a much stronger surface strength of 75.49. Fatigue is identical on paper (267 minutes in the tournament) so recent workload won’t be a differentiator. The gap in mean serve index is notable — Paul’s 96.50 versus Etcheverry’s 79.12 — and his mean return index (90.04) towers over Etcheverry’s 54.21, both differences well above five points and key to the matchup. Over the last three outings Etcheverry has shown resilience: two straight wins in Miami (defeating Rafael Jodar and Zizou Bergs, including a 157-minute battle) after a loss to Denis Shapovalov at Indian Wells. Paul’s recent form includes two Miami victories (Raphael Collignon and Adrian Mannarino) and an earlier loss at Indian Wells to Joao Fonseca; his matches have been competitive and occasionally lengthy (140 and 127 minutes).

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.0 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Tommy Paul) +0.3 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at about 14.04 for the match, with predicted aces skewed toward Paul thanks to his superior serve index. Expected double faults are 5.08 for the contest. On Miami’s medium-paced hard courts, this level of serving production is consistent — a balance where big servers can still rack up aces but returns remain relevant.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.0 Most likely: 14 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.1 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Paul’s edge comes from superior serving and returning metrics combined with a stronger hard-court profile, which the model translates into a clear advantage. The key factor to watch is whether Etcheverry can neutralize Paul’s serve with early returns and high-percentage baseline play; if he does, the match could tighten beyond the expected 24 games.

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