Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Hugo Dellien vs Valentin Royer: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Hugo Dellien

Rank: #139
34%
VS

Valentin Royer

Rank: #73
66%
Expected Total Games: 38.3
Predicted Winner: Valentin Royer

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Ranking Trends

Hugo Dellien

  • Current #139 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #165 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #139 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #121 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #90 2025-05-26

Valentin Royer

  • Current #73 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #54 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #58 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #98 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #120 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Hugo Dellien

Form Index: 54.4
ELO Rating: 1595.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1588.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.3
Clay: 17.5
Grass: 6.9
Serve Rating: 94.2
Return Rating: 91.2

Valentin Royer

Form Index: 12.9
ELO Rating: 1448.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1355.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.0
Clay: 7.2
Grass: 19.6
Serve Rating: 95.7
Return Rating: 87.0

Recent Matches

Hugo Dellien
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Matej Dodig (2-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Sean Cuenin (2-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Jesper de Jong (1-2) clay Rome 179 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Luca Van Assche (2-0) clay Rome 107 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Dino Prizmic (1-2) clay Santiago 113 min

Valentin Royer
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Comesana (1-2) clay Geneva 122 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Hamad Medjedovic (0-2) clay Rome 102 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Tabilo (0-2) clay Madrid 76 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Thiago Agustin Tirante (1-2) hard Miami 204 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Benjamin Bonzi (0-2) hard Indian Wells 76 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Hugo Dellien
vs
0
Valentin Royer
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roland Garros, Paris — Round of 128 on clay in a Grand Slam setting pits Hugo Dellien against Valentin Royer. The model favors Valentin Royer to win with a 66.30% probability versus a 33.70% chance for Dellien, and projects a relatively compact match of about 38.32 total games.

Match Analysis

There is a contrast in the profiles: Dellien is ranked 139 with a stronger recent form index (54.43) and a higher Elo (1595.12), but carries heavy tournament fatigue (348 minutes on court) and posts a modest surface strength index (17.54). Royer, ranked 73, comes in with a much lower form index (12.90) and a lower Elo (1448.81) but has no accumulated fatigue (0 minutes) and a surface strength index of 7.20. Both players show strong serving metrics on paper — Dellien’s mean serve index is 94.19 and Royer’s 95.68 — and Dellien also holds a very high mean return index (91.19) compared with Royer’s 87.01. Recent results underline the divergence: Dellien has won his last two Roland Garros matches in straight sets (long, physically demanding 174-minute contests) after a three-set loss in Rome. Royer’s last three recorded matches are losses on clay (Geneva, Rome, Madrid), including a 1-2 defeat most recently. Those performances, paired with Royer’s freshness and higher ranking, appear to drive the prediction in his favor despite Dellien’s sturdier form indicators and superior Elo.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.3 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Hugo Dellien - Valentin Royer) -2.2 Most likely spread: -3 (Valentin Royer wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match sits at about 13.42 total; the predicted aces tally is moderate, reflecting clay’s slower speed and higher bounce which typically reduces outright aces. Expected double faults are 5.48 for the match — the expected double faults figure is elevated by the possibility of longer rallies and fatigue, particularly relevant given Dellien’s time on court. Neither player’s serve index exceeds the other by more than five points, so no single big-server dominance is anticipated to dramatically inflate the ace count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.4 Most likely: 13 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.5 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

39.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Hugo Dellien's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (34.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Royer’s edge comes from his ranking position and the freshness advantage, which the projections favor over Dellien’s better-form and higher Elo. Key factor to watch: Dellien’s endurance and return quality versus Royer’s ability to avoid long, draining rallies — that balance should decide whether the match stays tight or tilts toward Royer.

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