Monte Carlo Monaco Clay Masters 1000 Round of 32

Andrey Rublev vs Zizou Bergs: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Andrey Rublev

Rank: #16
58%
VS

Zizou Bergs

Rank: #46
42%
Expected Total Games: 23.2
Predicted Winner: Andrey Rublev

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Ranking Trends

Andrey Rublev

  • Current #16 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #16 2026-01-05
  • 6 mo ago #14 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #14 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #9 2025-04-07

Zizou Bergs

  • Current #46 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #42 2026-01-05
  • 6 mo ago #44 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #50 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #50 2025-04-07

Player Metrics

Andrey Rublev

Form Index: 38.3
ELO Rating: 1747.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1818.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 94.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 58.3
Clay: 45.0
Grass: 46.9
Serve Rating: 77.7
Return Rating: 69.3

Zizou Bergs

Form Index: 45.3
ELO Rating: 1596.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1585.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 81.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 54.5
Clay: 38.7
Grass: 40.8
Serve Rating: 98.3
Return Rating: 92.6

Recent Matches

Andrey Rublev
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Nuno Borges (2-1) clay Monte Carlo 94 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Tabilo (1-2) hard Miami 126 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Gabriel Diallo (1-2) hard Indian Wells 172 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Tallon Griekspoor (0-2) hard Dubai 105 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Rinderknech (2-0) hard Dubai 75 min

Zizou Bergs
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Adrian Mannarino (2-0) clay Monte Carlo 81 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (0-2) hard Miami 157 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Jenson Brooksby (2-0) hard Miami 88 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Tommy Paul (0-2) hard Indian Wells 68 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jan-Lennard Struff (2-0) hard Indian Wells 73 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Andrey Rublev
vs
1
Zizou Bergs
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Monte Carlo, Monaco — Round of 32 on clay at a Masters 1000 event sets up a contrast in styles as 16th-ranked Andrey Rublev meets 46th-ranked Zizou Bergs. The model predicts Rublev to win (57.89%) with Bergs at 42.11%, and forecasts a relatively short clay match of about 23.19 total games.

Match Analysis

Rublev arrives with the higher rank (16) and superior Elo (1747.27 versus Bergs’ 1596.15), but his form index (38.28) is lower than Bergs’ (45.34). Rublev’s cumulative fatigue is also higher (94 minutes on court vs Bergs’ 81), while his surface strength index on clay is modestly better (44.99 to 38.71). Bergs stands out with markedly higher mean serve (98.28) and mean return (92.56) indices compared with Rublev’s serve 77.70 and return 69.33 — both gaps exceed 5 points and will be central to the tactical battle. Recent results underline the contrasting momentum: Rublev beat Nuno Borges in Monaco in a 94-minute, three-set opener but had back-to-back early exits at Miami and Indian Wells in longer matches. Bergs arrives more refreshed after a straight-sets 81-minute win over Adrian Mannarino in Monaco, bookending mixed Miami results (a loss to Etcheverry and a win over Brooksby). Those recent outcomes suggest Rublev’s ranking and Elo remain advantages, while Bergs’ serving and returning metrics could produce bursts of pressure.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.2 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Andrey Rublev - Zizou Bergs) +3.4 Most likely spread: +3 (Andrey Rublev wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

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Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clash sits at about 10.08 total; the predicted aces figure reflects Bergs’ much higher serve index but is tempered by clay’s slower bounce. The expected double faults tally is 6.85 — an expected double faults number that could rise if rallies lengthen and fatigue mounts. Given Bergs’ elite serve index here, he’s likely to contribute a larger share of the predicted aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.1 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.8 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Rublev’s edge in ranking and Elo, coupled with a slightly stronger clay index, is why he is favored despite Bergs’ eye-catching serve and return ratings. The key factor to watch will be whether Bergs can convert his serving dominance into free points early; if he does, this match could tighten well beyond the projected margin.

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