Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Auger-Aliassime comes mainly from recent form and his serve/return profile. Auger-Aliassime sits higher in the rankings (No. 4) with an Elo of 1880.56 and a form index of 67.70; his mean serve index (97.95) and return index (92.60) are both elite, and those attributes pushed the prediction toward him. Davidovich Fokina is a dangerous opponent (rank 23, Elo 1826.92) whose slightly superior surface strength index (36.53 vs 33.61) and aggression on court contribute to the head-to-head factor that moves probability toward him. Fatigue is effectively neutral—both players register the same accumulated minutes this week—so it plays only a small role in the model. Auger-Aliassime’s overall strength (reflected in ranking and Elo) and the serve & return metric jointly account for much of the gap, while Davidovich Fokina’s head-to-head influence is the primary factor working against that trend. Both players come in with identical short-form lines at this event: three straight-set wins through the first three rounds (Auger-Aliassime over Shevchenko, Prizmic and Zheng; Davidovich Fokina over Cerundolo, Marozsan and Fucsovics), so confidence and rhythm are present on both sides.