EuroLeague Player Projections
AI-powered statistical projections for upcoming starters
Updated: 24 Jun 2026Full distributions as JSON or CSV
| Player | Team | Opponent | H/A | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | PIR |
|---|
How Player Projections Work
We generate full probability distributions for five stat categories — points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers made, and PIR (Performance Index Rating, EuroLeague's signature efficiency metric) — for every projected starter in the upcoming round. Each stat has its own dedicated model trained on thousands of player-game observations.
The models learn from a combination of player-level and game-level features: recent game logs, opponent defensive context, pace of play, home/away splits, expected minutes and usage patterns, and opportunity redistribution when key teammates are unavailable.
The result is not a single number — it's a complete picture of what's likely, what's possible, and how confident the model actually is. The PDF chart shows the probability of each specific outcome. The CDF chart answers "what's the probability of going over X?" at any threshold.
Frequently Asked Questions
What stats do you project for EuroLeague players?
We generate projections for five categories: points (PTS), rebounds (REB), assists (AST), three-pointers made (3PM), and PIR (Performance Index Rating). Each projection includes a full probability distribution, not just a single expected value.
What is PIR?
PIR (Performance Index Rating) is EuroLeague's official all-in-one efficiency metric. It rewards positive contributions (points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, drawn fouls) and subtracts negatives (missed shots, turnovers, fouls committed), producing a single number that summarises a player's overall impact on the game.
How are the player projection models built?
Each stat has its own dedicated model trained on historical player game logs combined with contextual features like opponent defensive efficiency, game pace, home/away splits, playing time expectations, and team context. The models output a complete probability distribution for each stat category.
How do I read the PDF chart?
The PDF (Probability Density Function) chart shows the probability of each specific outcome as a bar. The tallest bar is the most likely single outcome. The dashed E[X] line marks the expected value. A narrow distribution means high confidence; a wide one indicates more uncertainty. Full guide to probability charts.
How do I use the CDF chart for over/under analysis?
The CDF chart shows the probability of a player going over any given value. Find a threshold on the x-axis and read the corresponding percentage. For example, if the chart shows 62% at 15 PIR, there is a 62% chance the player records more than 15 PIR. The complementary 38% is the under probability.
How often are player projections updated?
Projections are generated before each round of games, incorporating the latest lineup information and recent performance data for every expected starter.
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