Monte Carlo Engine

Euroleague Title Simulations

We simulate the rest of the Euroleague season 10,000 times on our team Elo & Glicko ratings: every remaining game, the play-in, the best-of-5 quarterfinals and the single-site Final Four. Out comes each club's chance of winning the trophy, and the bracket we expect, round by round. Games already played are shown as actual results. Only what's still undecided is a probability.

Updated Sep 29, 07:15 10,000 simulated seasons Calibrated probabilities

Projected Final Standings 2026-27

Projected from 10,000 sims
Playoffs Play-In Out Cells = chance to reach each stage; standings projected from expected wins.
# Club Play-In Playoffs Final Four Final Champion
1 Olympiacos Piraeus OLY · 1-0 <1% 89% 61% 41%
2 Valencia Basket PAM · 1-0 12% 95% 64% 34% 16%
3 Real Madrid MAD · 0-1 19% 89% 56% 28% 13%
4 Zalgiris Kaunas ZAL · 1-0 27% 80% 39% 17% 6.6%
5 Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul ULK · 1-0 28% 78% 38% 17% 7.2%
6 Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens PAN · 1-0 33% 72% 33% 14% 5.5%
7 FC Bayern Munich MUN · 1-0 36% 62% 22% 8% 3.2%
8 Dubai Basketball DUB · 1-0 37% 59% 21% 8% 3.1%
9 FC Barcelona BAR · 1-0 37% 45% 14% 5% 1.6%
10 Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade PAR · 1-0 35% 34% 8% 3% <1%
11 Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv HTA · 0-1 30% 24% 6% 2% <1%
12 Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade RED · 0-1 25% 18% 4% 1% <1%
13 Besiktas Istanbul BES · 0-1 22% 15% 3% <1% <1%
14 Paris Basketball PRS · 0-1 21% 13% 2% <1% <1%
15 Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv TEL · 0-1 14% 7% 1% <1% <1%
16 Anadolu Efes Istanbul IST · 0-1 10% 5% <1% <1% <1%
17 Armani Olimpia Milan MIL · 0-1 6% 3% <1% <1% <1%
18 Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz BAS · 0-1 4% 1% <1% <1% <1%
19 LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne ASV · 1-0 2% <1% <1% - 0%
20 Virtus Bologna VIR · 0-1 <1% <1% - - 0%

The Draw 2026-27

Projected bracket

Tap a quarterfinal for the full best-of-5 score distribution. Decided games show the actual result; matchup odds are shown while the field is still open.

Play-In
Quarterfinals · Best-of-5
Final Four · Semifinals
Final

10,000 seasons

Every remaining game, the play-in and each best-of-5 quarterfinal are sampled from win probabilities built on our team Elo & Glicko ratings (home court, the 2-2-1 series format and the neutral Final Four all included).

Results lock in

Played games are facts, not guesses: a finished regular season shows the real standings, a quarterfinal our model sees at 2-1 resumes from 2-1. Only the undecided is a probability.

Honest odds

The single-game Final Four is a coin-flip by design, so the title is genuinely hard to call. We report calibrated probabilities, not hype, and show the Final-Four field forecast alongside the champion.

How is the Euroleague post-season simulated?

After the regular season, seeds 7-10 contest the play-in for the last two playoff spots. The eight playoff teams play best-of-5 quarterfinals (2-2-1 home court), and the four winners meet at a single-site Final Four: two semifinals and a final, single games at a neutral venue. We simulate that whole path 10,000 times.

Why is the title so hard to predict?

Unlike a best-of-7 series, the Euroleague is decided by single-game semifinals and a single-game final. Even the strongest team is only around 40% to win two single games back-to-back, so champion odds are spread wide. The Final-Four field is far more predictable than the eventual winner.

Do the numbers show what already happened?

Yes. Completed phases are shown as actual results: the final regular-season standings, decided play-in games and finished series. Only games that haven't been played yet are shown as probabilities.

How often do the numbers update?

Daily, on our prediction run: completed games are locked in and the rest of the season is re-simulated 10,000 times.