Monte Carlo Engine

Euroleague Title Simulations

We simulate the rest of the Euroleague season 10,000 times on our team Elo & Glicko ratings — every remaining game, the play-in, the best-of-5 quarterfinals and the single-site Final Four. Out comes each club's chance of winning the trophy, and the bracket we expect — round by round. Games already played are shown as actual results; only what's still undecided is a probability.

Updated Jun 29, 12:00 10,000 simulated seasons Calibrated probabilities

Final Regular-Season Standings 2025-26

Actual standings
Playoffs Play-In Out Cells = chance to reach each stage.
# Club Play-In Playoffs Final Four Final Champion
1 Olympiacos Piraeus OLY · 26-12 – 83% 54% 35%
2 Valencia Basket PAM · 25-13 – 51% 23% 8.8%
3 Real Madrid MAD · 24-14 – 86% 43% 23%
4 Fenerbahce Beko Istanbul ULK · 24-14 – 81% 37% 16%
5 Zalgiris Kaunas ZAL · 23-15 – 17% 6% 1.7%
6 Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv HTA · 23-15 – 16% 5% 1.4%
7 Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens PAN · 22-16 88% 34% 17% 7.8%
8 AS Monaco MCO · 22-16 87% 31% 15% 6.5%
9 FC Barcelona BAR · 21-17 15% 1% <1% <1%
10 Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade RED · 21-17 10% <1% <1% <1%
11 Dubai Basketball DUB · 19-19 – – – – 0%
12 Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv TEL · 18-20 – – – – 0%
13 FC Bayern Munich MUN · 17-21 – – – – 0%
14 EA7 Emporio Armani Milan MIL · 17-21 – – – – 0%
15 Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade PAR · 16-22 – – – – 0%
16 Paris Basketball PRS · 15-23 – – – – 0%
17 Virtus Bologna VIR · 14-24 – – – – 0%
18 Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz BAS · 13-25 – – – – 0%
19 Anadolu Efes Istanbul IST · 12-26 – – – – 0%
20 LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne ASV · 8-30 – – – – 0%

The Draw 2025-26

Post-season live

Tap a quarterfinal for the full best-of-5 score distribution. Decided games show the actual result.

Play-In
Quarterfinals · Best-of-5
Final Four · Semifinals
Final

10,000 seasons

Every remaining game, the play-in and each best-of-5 quarterfinal are sampled from win probabilities built on our team Elo & Glicko ratings — home court, the 2-2-1 series format and the neutral Final Four all included.

Results lock in

Played games are facts, not guesses: a finished regular season shows the real standings, a quarterfinal our model sees at 2-1 resumes from 2-1. Only the undecided is a probability.

Honest odds

The single-game Final Four is a coin-flip by design — so the title is genuinely hard to call. We report calibrated probabilities, not hype, and show the Final-Four field forecast alongside the champion.

How is the Euroleague post-season simulated?

After the regular season, seeds 7–10 contest the play-in for the last two playoff spots; the eight playoff teams play best-of-5 quarterfinals (2-2-1 home court); the four winners meet at a single-site Final Four — two semifinals and a final, single games at a neutral venue. We simulate that whole path 10,000 times.

Why is the title so hard to predict?

Unlike a best-of-7 series, the Euroleague is decided by single-game semifinals and a single-game final. Even the strongest team is only around 40% to win two single games back-to-back — so champion odds are spread wide. The Final-Four field is far more predictable than the eventual winner.

Do the numbers show what already happened?

Yes. Completed phases are shown as actual results — the final regular-season standings, decided play-in games and finished series. Only games that haven't been played yet are shown as probabilities.

How often do the numbers update?

Daily, on our prediction run: completed games are locked in and the rest of the season is re-simulated 10,000 times.