Premier League Title Simulations
We simulate the rest of the Premier League season 10,000 times on our team Elo ratings: every remaining fixture gets a sampled scoreline (draws included), tables are built on points and goal difference, and out comes each club's chance of the title, the Champions League, the Europa League and relegation. Played games are facts, not guesses. Only what's still undecided is a probability.
Final Standings 2025-26
The Race, Match by Match 2025-26
Each line is a club's average simulated league position after every match date, 1st at the top. The calendar matters: a soft run of fixtures pulls a line up, a brutal one drags it down. Pick a club to spotlight its road.
Swipe the chart sideways to travel the season.
10,000 seasons
Every remaining fixture gets a full sampled scoreline from a Poisson goals model built on our team Elo ratings, home advantage included, draws included. Points, goal difference and the final table fall out of the goals.
Results lock in
Played matches are facts, not forecasts: the table always starts from the real points and goal difference, and the timeline's past is the actual rank trajectory. Only the remaining calendar is simulated.
Honest odds
A league season is decided over 34-38 rounds, so strong sides separate, but draws, goal difference and the fixture calendar keep the races open. We report calibrated probabilities, not hype.
How is the Premier League season simulated?
We fit a Poisson goals model on a decade of matches: team Elo ratings (plus a carry-over anchor from last season) set each side's expected goals, with home advantage on top. Every remaining fixture is sampled 10,000 times. Wins, draws, goal difference and points build 10,000 final tables, and the odds you see are simple counts over those tables.
Do the simulations include draws?
Yes, draws come out of the sampled scorelines naturally, and the model's draw coupling is calibrated so the simulated draw share matches the real one (about a quarter of matches). Goal difference is simulated too, so tight races are broken the way real tables are.
What do the Champions League and relegation bands mean?
Each league's qualification spots are configured to its real format: Champions League places, Europa League places, direct relegation and, where the league has one, the relegation play-off slot. A club's band probability is the share of simulated seasons in which it finishes inside that band.
What does the rank timeline show?
Each club's average simulated position after every match date. Past dates show the actual rank trajectory. Future dates show where the simulations expect each club to be, including the effect of the fixture calendar it is about to face.
How often do the numbers update?
On every prediction run: completed rounds are locked in and the remaining season is re-simulated 10,000 times.
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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