Monte Carlo Engine

La Liga Title Simulations

We simulate the rest of the La Liga season 10,000 times on our team Elo ratings: every remaining fixture gets a sampled scoreline (draws included), tables are built on points and goal difference, and out comes each club's chance of the title, the Champions League, the Europa League and relegation. Played games are facts, not guesses. Only what's still undecided is a probability.

Updated Sep 25, 10:41 10,000 simulated seasons Calibrated probabilities

Projected Final Standings 2026-27

Projected from 10,000 sims
Champions League Europa League Relegation Cells = chance to finish in each band. Order = mean simulated finish. Tap a row to spotlight it in the timeline.
# Club Pts GD xPts Champions League Europa League Relegation Champion
1 Barcelona 7 played · 7-0-0 21 +24 92.6 - - 97%
2 Real Madrid 7 played · 5-0-2 15 +10 73.2 94% 5% - 1.9%
3 Ath Madrid 7 played · 5-1-1 16 +9 68.6 82% 13% - <1%
4 Betis 7 played · 5-1-1 16 +2 65.5 66% 23% <1% <1%
5 Villarreal 7 played · 2-2-3 8 +1 55.7 15% 31% <1% 0%
6 Sevilla 7 played · 4-1-2 13 +1 55.9 14% 29% <1% 0%
7 Alaves 7 played · 3-2-2 11 +5 53.9 10% 25% 1% <1%
8 Sociedad 7 played · 3-1-3 10 -4 50.6 4% 14% 4% 0%
9 Vallecano 7 played · 2-2-3 8 -5 50.1 4% 12% 5% 0%
10 La Coruna 7 played · 2-4-1 10 +2 48.8 3% 10% 7% 0%
11 Ath Bilbao 6 played · 2-2-2 8 +1 48.7 3% 10% 7% 0%
12 Celta 7 played · 1-4-2 7 +2 47.6 2% 8% 8% 0%
13 Levante 6 played · 1-2-3 5 -4 47.0 2% 7% 11% 0%
14 Getafe 7 played · 2-2-3 8 -3 46.5 1% 6% 11% 0%
15 Elche 7 played · 1-2-4 5 -6 42.4 <1% 2% 28% 0%
16 Espanol 7 played · 2-1-4 7 0 42.1 <1% 2% 28% 0%
17 Osasuna 7 played · 2-2-3 8 -7 42.3 <1% 2% 29% 0%
18 Santander 7 played · 2-1-4 7 -10 41.4 <1% 1% 34% 0%
19 Valencia 7 played · 1-1-5 4 -9 38.7 <1% <1% 49% 0%
20 Malaga 7 played · 0-3-4 3 -9 34.0 <1% <1% 75% 0%

The Race, Match by Match 2026-27

Solid = played · dashed = projected

Each line is a club's average simulated league position after every match date, 1st at the top. The calendar matters: a soft run of fixtures pulls a line up, a brutal one drags it down. Pick a club to spotlight its road.

Swipe the chart sideways to travel the season.

Simulated Matchdays 2026-27

Next 5 matchdays

Win, draw and loss probabilities for every fixture of the next 5 matchdays, with expected goals and the three likeliest exact scores (each rarely above 15%, which is why the probabilities come first). Pick a club to see its own run. Matchday 9 is next up and lives on the match predictions page (our dedicated match models, sharper at close range).

From the Poisson goals model behind the season simulation: medium-range expectations, not match-day picks.

10,000 seasons

Every remaining fixture gets a full sampled scoreline from a Poisson goals model built on our team Elo ratings, home advantage included, draws included. Points, goal difference and the final table fall out of the goals.

Results lock in

Played matches are facts, not forecasts: the table always starts from the real points and goal difference, and the timeline's past is the actual rank trajectory. Only the remaining calendar is simulated.

Honest odds

A league season is decided over 34-38 rounds, so strong sides separate, but draws, goal difference and the fixture calendar keep the races open. We report calibrated probabilities, not hype.

How is the La Liga season simulated?

We fit a Poisson goals model on a decade of matches: team Elo ratings (plus a carry-over anchor from last season) set each side's expected goals, with home advantage on top. Every remaining fixture is sampled 10,000 times. Wins, draws, goal difference and points build 10,000 final tables, and the odds you see are simple counts over those tables.

Do the simulations include draws?

Yes, draws come out of the sampled scorelines naturally, and the model's draw coupling is calibrated so the simulated draw share matches the real one (about a quarter of matches). Goal difference is simulated too, so tight races are broken the way real tables are.

What do the Champions League and relegation bands mean?

Each league's qualification spots are configured to its real format: Champions League places, Europa League places, direct relegation and, where the league has one, the relegation play-off slot. A club's band probability is the share of simulated seasons in which it finishes inside that band.

What does the rank timeline show?

Each club's average simulated position after every match date. Past dates show the actual rank trajectory. Future dates show where the simulations expect each club to be, including the effect of the fixture calendar it is about to face.

How often do the numbers update?

On every prediction run: completed rounds are locked in and the remaining season is re-simulated 10,000 times.

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

The La Liga title odds dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit: 

Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/la_liga_title_simulations">La Liga title odds by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)

Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in): 

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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/la_liga_title_simulations">La Liga title odds by Predixsport</a>
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