WTA Tournament Simulations
For every live WTA tournament we simulate the entire remaining bracket 20,000 times on our Elo & Glicko-2 player ratings. Completed matches are locked in, every match still to play is sampled from its win probability — what comes out is each player's chance of reaching every round and lifting the trophy.
Wimbledon 2026
Projected draw our pick to lift the trophy: Gauff
Each box is the player most likely to reach that round from that part of the draw, with the chance they get there. Orange traces our projected champion's path; solid boxes are already decided. swipe to follow the draw to the title
Eliminated (120)
How the simulations work
Where do these probabilities come from?
Every player carries Elo, Glicko-2 and surface-specific strength ratings rebuilt from 25,000+ WTA matches. A calibrated model turns any rating gap into a match win probability, and we then play out the entire remaining bracket 20,000 times — sampling every not-yet-played match from its probability. A player's title chance is simply the share of those 20,000 tournaments she wins.
Why simulate instead of just picking the favourite?
Because the draw matters. Two equally strong players can have very different title chances if one has byes and qualifiers ahead while the other faces seeds from the second round. Simulation prices the whole path — including the matches your rivals might lose for you — which a single head-to-head number can't capture.
When do the forecasts update?
On every daily prediction run while a tournament is live: finished matches are locked in, ratings refresh, and the remaining bracket is re-simulated — so the odds sharpen round by round until the final.
1 · Rate
Every player carries continuously updated Elo, Glicko-2 and surface-specific strength ratings, rebuilt from 25,000+ WTA matches since 2016.
2 · Simulate
The remaining bracket is played out 20,000 times. Each hypothetical match is sampled from the rating model's win probability; rating uncertainty is resampled per simulation so volatile players get honest long shots.
3 · Verify
Our probabilities are built to be calibrated: when the model says a player has a 40% chance of reaching a round, it should happen about 40% of the time. Audit our models on model transparency.