WTA Tournament Simulations
For every live WTA tournament we simulate the entire remaining bracket 20,000 times on our Elo & Glicko-2 player ratings. Completed matches are locked in, every match still to play is sampled from its win probability: what comes out is each player's chance of reaching every round and lifting the trophy.
Cincinnati 2026
Title race
how the forecast moved · daily runs Aug 13 to Aug 21
Coloured lines: players who entered the daily top 5 of title probability at least once. A line ending in ✕ is an elimination. Grey lines are the best of the rest. Tap a player to isolate their line.
Data table: title probability by day
| Player | Aug 13 | Aug 14 | Aug 15 | Aug 16 | Aug 17 | Aug 18 | Aug 19 | Aug 20 | Aug 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iga Swiatek | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 15.6% | 19.9% | 20.1% | 20.3% | 30.1% | 43.1% |
| Jessica Pegula | 9.7% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 13.2% | 25.1% |
| Coco Gauff | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 22.6% | 17.2% |
| Marta Kostyuk | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 6.5% | 7.8% |
| Madison Keys | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 6.8% | 5.6% |
| Aryna Sabalenka | 48.9% | 50.0% | 50.9% | 40.2% | 41.8% | 37.9% | 45.6% | out | - |
| Elena Rybakina | 10.6% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 7.5% | 12.7% | out |
| Amanda Anisimova | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 7.2% | out |
Projected draw our pick to lift the trophy: Swiatek
Each box is the player most likely to reach that round from that part of the draw, with the chance they get there. Orange traces our projected champion's path. Solid boxes are already decided. swipe to follow the draw to the title
Eliminated (90)
How the simulations work
Where do these probabilities come from?
Every player carries Elo, Glicko-2 and surface-specific strength ratings rebuilt from 25,000+ WTA matches. A calibrated model turns any rating gap into a match win probability, and we then play out the entire remaining bracket 20,000 times, sampling every not-yet-played match from its probability. A player's title chance is simply the share of those 20,000 tournaments she wins.
Why simulate instead of just picking the favourite?
Because the draw matters. Two equally strong players can have very different title chances if one has byes and qualifiers ahead while the other faces seeds from the second round. Simulation prices the whole path (including the matches your rivals might lose for you), which a single head-to-head number can't capture.
When do the forecasts update?
On every daily prediction run while a tournament is live: finished matches are locked in, ratings refresh, and the remaining bracket is re-simulated, so the odds sharpen round by round until the final.
1 · Rate
Every player carries continuously updated Elo, Glicko-2 and surface-specific strength ratings, rebuilt from 25,000+ WTA matches since 2016.
2 · Simulate
The remaining bracket is played out 20,000 times. Each hypothetical match is sampled from the rating model's win probability. Rating uncertainty is resampled per simulation so volatile players get honest long shots.
3 · Verify
Our probabilities are built to be calibrated: when the model says a player has a 40% chance of reaching a round, it should happen about 40% of the time. Audit our models on model transparency.
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
The WTA tournament title odds dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/wta_tennis_tournament_simulations">WTA tournament title odds by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
<iframe src="https://www.predixsport.com/embed/bracket/wta"
style="width:100%;min-width:320px;height:660px;border:0;border-radius:10px" loading="lazy"
title="WTA tournament title odds · Predixsport"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/wta_tennis_tournament_simulations">WTA tournament title odds by Predixsport</a>
The widget always shows the live tournament: right now that's
Cincinnati. When several tournaments run at once, pin the one
you want by appending ?t=<tournament> to the iframe URL
(e.g. ?t=cincinnati).