Jessica Pegula vs Coco Gauff: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Pegula comes mainly from the fatigue & recent workload factor (a 4.3 percentage-point boost toward Pegula), supported by smaller bumps from recent record by level (+1.6) and recent form (+1.5). Conversely, age and head-to-head data nudge slightly toward Gauff (+2.5 and +1.3 points respectively). On paper both players show very similar tournament workloads (480 minutes on court), but Pegula’s metrics — a higher Elo (2035.24 vs 2020.43), marginally better surface strength (64.53 vs 62.19) and slightly higher mean serve and return indices — underpin the model’s lean. Pegula is ranked 4 with a form index of 56.43 and strong serve/return indices (mean serve 97.48, mean return 93.97). Gauff, ranked 7, posts a nearly identical form index (56.46) with serve/return indices of 95.21 and 90.07. Differences in serve and return are under the 5-point threshold, so neither player holds a clear statistical power advantage in those specific metrics. Over the last three matches at Wimbledon, Pegula has won all three (two straight-set wins and one three-set), while Gauff has also progressed with three wins — each listed as 2-1 set results — showing resilience but slightly more three-set work.