Wimbledon Wimbledon, GBR Grass Grand Slam Quarterfinals

Marta Kostyuk vs Jasmine Paolini: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Marta Kostyuk

Rank: #13
81%
VS

Jasmine Paolini

Rank: #17
19%
Expected Total Games: 23.3
Predicted Winner: Marta Kostyuk

Why the Model Favors Marta Kostyuk

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +8.9 Marta Kostyuk
Overall record & opposition quality +4.8 Marta Kostyuk
Surface fit +4.8 Marta Kostyuk
Serve & return game +4.4 Marta Kostyuk
Age +3.2 Marta Kostyuk

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 81% for Marta Kostyuk. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Marta Kostyuk

  • Current #13 2026-06-29
  • 3 mo ago #27 2026-03-30
  • 6 mo ago #26 2025-12-29
  • 9 mo ago #28 2025-09-29
  • 12 mo ago #26 2025-06-30

Jasmine Paolini

  • Current #17 2026-06-29
  • 3 mo ago #8 2026-03-30
  • 6 mo ago #8 2025-12-29
  • 9 mo ago #8 2025-09-29
  • 12 mo ago #5 2025-06-30

Player Metrics

Marta Kostyuk

Form Index: 87.7
ELO Rating: 2109.3
Glicko2 Rating: 2114.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 480.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 48.8
Clay: 61.5
Grass: 34.5
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 94.6

Jasmine Paolini

Form Index: 52.2
ELO Rating: 1843.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1823.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 480.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 42.7
Clay: 42.0
Grass: 51.2
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 87.6

Recent Matches

Marta Kostyuk
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Ashlyn Krueger (2-0) grass Wimbledon 120 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Emma Navarro (2-1) grass Wimbledon 120 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Anna Blinkova (2-1) grass Wimbledon 120 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Nadia Podoroska (2-0) grass Wimbledon 120 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Mirra Andreeva (0-2) clay Roland Garros 120 min

Jasmine Paolini
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Alexandra Eala (2-1) grass Wimbledon 120 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Maria Sakkari (2-0) grass Wimbledon 120 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Viktorija Golubic (2-0) grass Wimbledon 120 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Robin Montgomery (1-1) grass Wimbledon 120 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Tatjana Maria (0-2) grass Eastbourne 90 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Marta Kostyuk
vs
0
Jasmine Paolini
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Wimbledon quarterfinals on grass in London, Marta Kostyuk meets Jasmine Paolini with a place in the last four at stake. The model favors Kostyuk to win (81.29% chance) over Paolini (18.71%), with a predicted total of about 23.33 games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Kostyuk comes mainly from her recent form at this level and her superior overall record and opposition quality, supported by a strong serve/return profile and age advantage. Kostyuk is ranked 13 with a form index of 87.66 and an Elo of 2109.32; Paolini is 17, with a form index of 52.19 and an Elo of 1842.96. Both players have identical tournament fatigue so court time won’t be a differentiator. Surface strength index slightly favors Paolini (51.19 vs Kostyuk’s 34.46), but the model still weights Kostyuk’s recent results and higher Elo heavily in her favor. Kostyuk’s serving and returning numbers are notable: mean serve index 96.19 and mean return index 94.59. Paolini posts similar serving (95.98) but a lower return index (87.63) — the return index gap of nearly seven points is meaningful and tilts return exchanges toward Kostyuk. Over their last three matches at Wimbledon both are unbeaten: Kostyuk has three wins including two 3-setters and a straight-sets win; Paolini also has three wins, with two comfortable straight-sets victories and a 3-setter against Eala.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.3 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Marta Kostyuk - Jasmine Paolini) +3.1 Most likely spread: +3 (Marta Kostyuk wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this contest is modest: predicted aces total 3.18, while the double faults prediction sits at an expected double faults count of 5.21. Grass usually boosts ace numbers, but here neither player has a significantly higher serve rating, so a low-to-moderate ace count is expected. Kostyuk’s stronger return could also suppress opponent aces, contributing to the relatively low predicted aces and higher expected double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 3.2 Most likely: 3 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.2 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

25.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Marta Kostyuk's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (52.2%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Kostyuk’s recent record at this level is the top factor behind the projection and gives her the clear edge. Watch her return game early — if she breaks Paolini’s serve consistently, the match should follow the model’s forecast.

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