Bundesliga 2025-2026: Augsburg vs M'gladbach Prediction - 9 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Augsburg

Home Team
47%
VS

M'gladbach

Away Team
28%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 61%
Under 2.5: 39%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 27.8
Expected Spread: +0.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 32 26 5 1 116 35 81 83
2 Dortmund 32 20 7 5 65 32 33 67
3 RB Leipzig 32 19 5 8 63 42 21 62
4 Leverkusen 32 17 7 8 66 43 23 58
5 Stuttgart 32 17 7 8 66 46 20 58
6 Hoffenheim 32 17 7 8 64 48 16 58
7 Freiburg 32 12 8 12 45 53 -8 44
8 Ein Frankfurt 32 11 10 11 57 60 -3 43
9 Augsburg 32 11 7 14 42 56 -14 40
10 Mainz 32 9 10 13 41 50 -9 37
11 M'gladbach 32 8 11 13 37 50 -13 35
12 Hamburg 32 8 10 14 36 51 -15 34
13 Union Berlin 32 8 9 15 37 57 -20 33
14 FC Koln 32 7 11 14 47 55 -8 32
15 Werder Bremen 32 8 8 16 37 57 -20 32
16 Wolfsburg 32 6 8 18 42 67 -25 26
17 St Pauli 32 6 8 18 27 55 -28 26
18 Heidenheim 32 5 8 19 38 69 -31 23

Recent Trends

Augsburg W D W D D

  • Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Leverkusen (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Hamburg (Goals: 1 - 1)

M'gladbach W D D L D

  • Last Match: W vs Dortmund (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Heidenheim (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Augsburg

xG (avg) 1.97
xGA (avg) 1.47
Clean Sheets 0

M'gladbach

xG (avg) 1.09
xGA (avg) 1.98
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Augsburg are slight favourites here, with a 47.0% chance of taking all three points against a M’gladbach side given a 28.0% chance, and a draw at 25.0%. The model leans towards a home win (predicted result: H) in this mid‑table clash between 9th‑placed Augsburg (40 points) and 11th‑placed Gladbach (35 points. With a 61.0% probability of over 2.5 goals, the expectation is for an open, attacking game rather than a cagey stalemate.

Match Analysis

Augsburg come in with momentum: two wins and a draw from their last three, including impressive away victories at Leverkusen (2-1) and Werder Bremen (3-1). They’ve shown resilience, picking up four points on the road and holding Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 at home, even when getting out-shot (11-35 vs Leverkusen, 14-15 vs Bremen). The pattern is familiar: they concede chances but are efficient enough in front of goal to edge tight games. Gladbach’s recent form is more cautious than explosive: unbeaten in three, but with just one win – a gritty 1-0 home victory over Dortmund – followed by a pair of draws (0-0 at Wolfsburg, 1-1 vs Mainz). They’ve tightened up defensively lately, with two clean sheets in that run, yet still allow a fair number of shots (12 faced vs Dortmund, 12 vs Wolfsburg, 17 vs Mainz), suggesting Augsburg will get opportunities. The advanced numbers back up Augsburg’s slight edge. Over the last five games they’ve averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, but their expected goals for (1.968) significantly outstrip their actual returns, while xG against sits at a solid 1.468. Gladbach average just 1.0 goal scored and 2.0 conceded, with xG for at 1.092 and xG against high at 1.976. Augsburg are creating more and conceding slightly better chances; Gladbach are relying on defensive organisation and those two recent clean sheets to stay competitive.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Augsburg
Goals in last 5 matches
M'gladbach
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 61.0%, and the recent scorelines give it some support. Two of Augsburg’s last three have gone over 2.5 goals (3-1 at Bremen, 2-1 at Leverkusen), with only the 1-1 vs Frankfurt staying under. For Gladbach, all three latest matches have been under 2.5 (1-0, 0-0, 1-1), but their longer‑term defensive xG of 1.976 conceded per game hints that this low‑scoring spell may be hard to sustain. Given Augsburg’s 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded on average, plus their higher attacking xG, over 2.5 still looks the more likely outcome.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Augsburg
Corners in last 5 matches
M'gladbach
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a moderate tally, with 9.56 expected total corners in this match. Augsburg’s recent games have been corner‑heavy overall: 10 at Bremen (2-8), 16 vs Frankfurt (9-7), and 15 at Leverkusen (4-11), as they often soak up pressure and then break, allowing opponents to rack up flags. Gladbach, meanwhile, have seen more modest corner counts in two of their last three – 2 vs Dortmund (1-1) and 5 at Wolfsburg (5-8) – but 6 vs Mainz (0-6) shows they can force opponents deep. With both sides inclined to concede territory at times, the predicted corners figure around the 9–10 mark feels well balanced.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Augsburg
Shots in last 5 matches
M'gladbach
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 27.82 expected shots, suggesting a lively contest without turning into a shooting gallery. Augsburg’s last three have all been shot‑rich: 14 attempts at Bremen, 17 vs Frankfurt and 11 at Leverkusen, but they’ve also allowed 15, 19 and 35 respectively, reflecting their open style. Gladbach’s matches have seen slightly lower but still healthy totals (12-6 vs Dortmund, 10-12 at Wolfsburg, 9-17 vs Mainz). Given Augsburg’s higher attacking xG and Gladbach’s xG conceded of 1.976, the expected shots number lines up with two teams capable of generating chances even if they don’t always finish them clinically.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Augsburg wins by X goals. Negative = M'gladbach wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Augsburg vs M'gladbach with expected spread of +0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Augsburg vs M'gladbach
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction gives an expected spread of +0.18 in favour of Augsburg, meaning the home side are projected to edge it by a narrow margin. Recent results support that small gap: Augsburg are +3 on goal difference over their last three (6 scored, 3 conceded), while Gladbach sit at 0 (2 scored, 2 conceded), relying on defensive discipline more than attacking power. That slim positive spread matches the 47.0% home‑win probability and reflects Augsburg’s stronger attacking numbers against a Gladbach team still conceding clear chances despite recent clean sheets.

Final Prediction

Augsburg’s superior attacking output and stronger underlying xG numbers give them a slight but justified edge over a Gladbach side that has improved defensively but remains fragile whenever pressure builds. If Augsburg can maintain the clinical edge shown at Bremen and Leverkusen, their home advantage should tell. The key battle to watch is Augsburg’s high‑value chances against Gladbach’s recently tightened back line – whichever side wins that duel is likely to dictate the result.

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