NBA Player Predictability Board

Every 2025-26 starter with 20+ starts, ranked by how well our projection models track him. In plain words: before every game we publish a full probability distribution for his points and rebounds, and so does an imaginary naive forecaster who just averages his season and last-5 numbers. We grade both with CRPS (Continuous Ranked Probability Score, the standard measure for probabilistic forecasts: how much probability you placed close to what actually happened). The score is how much better we are than the naive, in percent. High score: his games follow patterns our models read well. Low or negative: box-score chaos, even for a model that beats the naive league-wide. Full model-vs-naive numbers for every stat, whichever side wins, and the complete write-up in how the score works.

Season 2025-26 season backtest
# Player Pos Team Starts Score PTS MAEmodel / naive REB MAEmodel / naive AST MAEmodel / naive 3PM MAEmodel / naive
1 Jock Landale C Atlanta Hawks 21 23.8 4.33 / 5.52 2.39 / 2.85 1.12 / 1.34 0.97 / 1.06
2 Jalen Williams SG Oklahoma City Thunder 37 17.2 4.97 / 5.77 2.11 / 2.31 2.12 / 2.42 0.73 / 0.76
3 Jalen Green SG Phoenix Suns 31 16.0 7.19 / 8.47 1.54 / 1.63 1.82 / 1.83 1.54 / 1.67
4 Ja'Kobe Walter SG Toronto Raptors 24 15.0 6.15 / 6.22 1.94 / 2.19 1.04 / 1.04 1.65 / 1.69
5 Gui Santos PF Golden State Warriors 30 14.5 5.6 / 6.11 2.27 / 2.45 1.94 / 2.0 1.04 / 1.08
6 Kyle Filipowski C Utah Jazz 36 13.7 5.53 / 6.04 3.01 / 3.29 1.55 / 1.65 0.68 / 0.75
7 GG Jackson II PF Memphis Grizzlies 28 13.5 4.95 / 5.64 2.03 / 2.01 1.23 / 0.99 0.92 / 0.97
8 Will Richard SG Golden State Warriors 21 13.5 5.84 / 5.57 1.86 / 1.99 1.42 / 1.47 0.99 / 0.91
9 Kevin Porter Jr. SG Milwaukee Bucks 35 12.6 6.6 / 7.13 1.97 / 2.17 2.3 / 2.35 1.17 / 1.08
10 Keegan Murray PF Sacramento Kings 22 12.4 6.44 / 6.75 3.22 / 3.46 0.92 / 1.07 1.05 / 1.04
11 Nolan Traoré PG Brooklyn Nets 31 12.3 4.41 / 4.96 0.93 / 0.92 2.03 / 2.09 1.05 / 0.95
12 Spencer Jones SF Denver Nuggets 40 12.2 5.13 / 5.08 1.69 / 1.75 0.97 / 0.81 1.29 / 1.33
13 Joel Embiid C Philadelphia 76ers 41 11.8 6.04 / 6.69 2.63 / 2.84 1.89 / 1.88 0.97 / 0.76
14 Oso Ighodaro PF Phoenix Suns 24 11.8 3.57 / 3.95 2.04 / 2.27 2.26 / 2.09 0.03 / 0.0
15 Cody Williams SG Utah Jazz 41 11.5 5.23 / 5.56 1.99 / 2.07 1.53 / 1.65 0.71 / 0.58
16 Baylor Scheierman SG Boston Celtics 21 11.3 4.36 / 5.04 2.71 / 2.88 1.76 / 1.89 1.04 / 1.17
17 Brook Lopez C Los Angeles Clippers 40 10.9 5.43 / 5.4 2.26 / 2.39 1.05 / 1.09 1.39 / 1.32
18 Andre Drummond C Philadelphia 76ers 26 10.8 3.98 / 3.91 3.58 / 4.06 1.06 / 1.06 0.74 / 0.7
19 Daniss Jenkins PG Detroit Pistons 22 10.7 5.71 / 6.5 1.54 / 1.46 2.67 / 2.96 1.1 / 1.14
20 Jaren Jackson Jr. C Utah Jazz 42 10.7 5.42 / 5.74 1.99 / 2.14 1.18 / 1.1 1.11 / 1.14
21 Ryan Nembhard PG Dallas Mavericks 27 10.6 4.66 / 5.05 1.59 / 1.58 2.81 / 2.9 0.97 / 1.07
22 Tyler Herro SG Miami Heat 28 10.2 5.08 / 5.82 2.24 / 2.19 1.64 / 1.46 1.5 / 1.55
23 Jaylon Tyson SG Cleveland Cavaliers 38 10.1 4.91 / 5.6 2.24 / 2.45 1.08 / 1.31 1.27 / 1.38
24 Pelle Larsson SG Miami Heat 50 10.1 4.58 / 4.87 1.76 / 1.86 1.52 / 1.58 0.99 / 0.9
25 Zach LaVine SG Sacramento Kings 30 10.1 7.34 / 7.87 1.48 / 1.5 1.39 / 1.24 1.45 / 1.56
26 Jerami Grant PF Portland Trail Blazers 38 9.8 6.39 / 6.71 1.43 / 1.55 1.36 / 1.19 1.39 / 1.44
27 Kelly Oubre Jr. SF Philadelphia 76ers 46 9.8 5.63 / 6.26 1.76 / 1.79 1.12 / 0.97 1.36 / 1.36
28 Sam Merrill SG Cleveland Cavaliers 34 9.8 4.9 / 5.24 1.59 / 1.59 1.01 / 1.2 1.51 / 1.61
29 Ace Bailey SF Utah Jazz 61 9.7 5.68 / 6.15 1.89 / 2.0 1.27 / 1.17 1.25 / 1.33
30 Andrew Nembhard SG Indiana Pacers 56 9.2 5.87 / 6.22 1.49 / 1.58 2.46 / 2.41 1.0 / 1.05
31 Ivica Zubac C Indiana Pacers 41 9.2 5.03 / 5.2 2.77 / 3.06 1.21 / 1.19 0.05 / 0.0
32 Peyton Watson SF Denver Nuggets 40 9.2 6.05 / 6.4 1.93 / 1.99 1.11 / 1.2 1.21 / 1.28
33 Ajay Mitchell SG Oklahoma City Thunder 23 9.1 4.68 / 4.98 1.16 / 1.34 1.69 / 1.84 0.79 / 0.77
34 P.J. Washington PF Dallas Mavericks 46 9.1 4.98 / 5.16 2.29 / 2.43 1.3 / 1.05 0.99 / 0.96
35 Paul George PF Philadelphia 76ers 48 9.0 5.13 / 5.45 2.1 / 2.08 1.42 / 1.46 1.45 / 1.48
36 Jayson Tatum PF Boston Celtics 22 8.9 3.64 / 4.22 3.92 / 3.97 2.87 / 2.96 1.25 / 1.31
37 Brandon Miller SF Charlotte Hornets 63 8.8 5.0 / 5.53 2.2 / 2.32 1.44 / 1.45 1.28 / 1.42
38 Stephen Curry PG Golden State Warriors 34 8.7 8.25 / 8.84 1.67 / 1.75 2.15 / 2.13 1.92 / 2.18
39 Derik Queen C New Orleans Pelicans 48 8.5 5.99 / 6.01 2.7 / 2.91 2.11 / 2.17 0.51 / 0.43
40 Egor Dёmin – Brooklyn Nets 38 8.5 5.91 / 6.03 2.23 / 2.23 1.49 / 1.46 1.39 / 1.43
41 Jay Huff C Indiana Pacers 46 8.5 4.57 / 5.04 2.17 / 2.06 0.96 / 0.97 1.13 / 1.2
42 Noah Clowney PF Brooklyn Nets 60 8.5 5.4 / 5.4 1.97 / 2.02 1.13 / 1.11 1.41 / 1.42
43 Giannis Antetokounmpo PF Milwaukee Bucks 31 8.4 5.74 / 6.42 3.7 / 3.85 2.87 / 2.75 0.44 / 0.5
44 Reed Sheppard PG Houston Rockets 26 7.9 4.95 / 5.36 1.9 / 1.97 2.39 / 2.64 1.41 / 1.49
45 Collin Murray-Boyles PF Toronto Raptors 20 7.8 4.41 / 4.56 2.78 / 2.76 1.47 / 1.52 0.45 / 0.4
46 Cameron Johnson PF Denver Nuggets 54 7.7 5.13 / 5.3 1.65 / 1.71 1.28 / 1.31 1.26 / 1.27
47 Alperen Şengün C Houston Rockets 72 7.5 6.48 / 6.44 3.0 / 3.2 2.22 / 2.23 0.76 / 0.67
48 Brandon Ingram SF Toronto Raptors 76 7.5 6.53 / 6.77 1.86 / 1.97 1.71 / 1.52 1.31 / 1.33
49 Isaac Okoro SG Chicago Bulls 56 7.5 4.2 / 4.23 1.3 / 1.33 1.15 / 1.15 1.04 / 1.0
50 Darius Garland PG Los Angeles Clippers 43 7.4 5.53 / 6.32 1.47 / 1.3 1.97 / 2.18 1.54 / 1.73
51 Deandre Ayton C Los Angeles Lakers 76 7.4 5.67 / 5.84 3.22 / 3.25 0.9 / 0.76 0.04 / 0.0
52 Nikola Vučević C Boston Celtics 43 7.4 5.08 / 5.3 2.8 / 2.98 1.72 / 1.76 0.87 / 0.92
53 Moussa Diabaté C Charlotte Hornets 47 7.3 3.78 / 3.99 2.95 / 3.12 1.46 / 1.42 0.06 / 0.04
54 Nique Clifford SG Sacramento Kings 27 7.3 5.78 / 5.96 1.61 / 1.65 1.6 / 1.77 1.11 / 1.05
55 Anthony Black PG Orlando Magic 39 7.2 6.32 / 6.7 1.45 / 1.46 1.43 / 1.44 1.21 / 1.22
56 Lauri Markkanen PF Utah Jazz 36 7.2 6.17 / 6.62 2.37 / 2.38 1.16 / 1.02 1.14 / 1.26
57 Sidy Cissoko SF Portland Trail Blazers 26 7.1 4.17 / 3.81 1.51 / 1.39 1.14 / 0.91 1.0 / 0.85
58 Austin Reaves SG Los Angeles Lakers 43 7.0 7.26 / 7.18 1.97 / 2.05 2.19 / 2.22 1.24 / 1.14
59 De'Anthony Melton PG Golden State Warriors 24 7.0 7.58 / 7.46 1.87 / 1.87 1.32 / 1.26 1.12 / 1.07
60 Maxime Raynaud C Sacramento Kings 56 7.0 5.36 / 5.5 2.65 / 2.78 1.0 / 0.97 0.52 / 0.49
61 Brice Sensabaugh SF Utah Jazz 22 6.8 8.0 / 8.06 1.02 / 1.01 1.4 / 1.65 1.42 / 1.49
62 Anthony Edwards SG Minnesota Timberwolves 65 6.7 7.99 / 8.26 2.15 / 2.23 1.71 / 1.53 1.54 / 1.62
63 Bennedict Mathurin SF Los Angeles Clippers 23 6.5 6.6 / 6.47 1.71 / 1.72 1.28 / 0.94 1.14 / 1.2
64 Khris Middleton SF Dallas Mavericks 44 6.5 4.67 / 4.67 1.88 / 1.89 1.64 / 1.57 0.79 / 0.77
65 LeBron James SF Los Angeles Lakers 70 6.5 4.96 / 5.16 2.34 / 2.46 2.4 / 2.61 1.04 / 0.99
66 Daniel Gafford C Dallas Mavericks 42 6.4 4.84 / 4.85 2.66 / 2.67 1.16 / 1.01 0.03 / 0.0
67 Tre Jones PG Chicago Bulls 35 6.4 5.58 / 5.65 1.78 / 1.88 2.12 / 2.11 0.8 / 0.81
68 CJ McCollum PG Atlanta Hawks 60 6.3 7.12 / 7.11 1.6 / 1.65 1.51 / 1.43 1.58 / 1.61
69 Collin Gillespie PG Phoenix Suns 61 6.3 5.59 / 5.89 1.51 / 1.56 1.92 / 2.03 1.56 / 1.63
70 Saddiq Bey SF New Orleans Pelicans 63 6.2 5.38 / 5.94 1.99 / 2.12 1.43 / 1.46 1.18 / 1.17
71 Dean Wade PF Cleveland Cavaliers 51 6.1 3.77 / 3.66 1.64 / 1.68 1.08 / 1.06 0.95 / 0.89
72 Ousmane Dieng C Milwaukee Bucks 20 6.1 5.05 / 5.42 2.6 / 2.68 2.74 / 2.88 1.15 / 1.11
73 Jake LaRavia PF Los Angeles Lakers 41 6.0 5.26 / 5.0 1.82 / 1.9 1.19 / 1.12 1.21 / 1.15
74 Precious Achiuwa – Sacramento Kings 57 6.0 5.54 / 5.44 2.99 / 2.92 1.17 / 1.16 0.6 / 0.58
75 De'Aaron Fox PG San Antonio Spurs 93 5.9 5.66 / 5.76 1.66 / 1.69 1.92 / 1.99 1.18 / 1.13
76 VJ Edgecombe SG Philadelphia 76ers 80 5.9 5.99 / 5.99 2.03 / 2.07 1.81 / 1.84 1.35 / 1.35
77 Zaccharie Risacher SF Atlanta Hawks 42 5.9 4.98 / 4.42 1.61 / 1.6 1.39 / 1.27 1.31 / 1.23
78 Drake Powell SG Brooklyn Nets 24 5.8 3.41 / 3.95 1.62 / 1.42 1.2 / 1.19 1.06 / 0.93
79 Jamal Murray PG Denver Nuggets 75 5.8 7.53 / 7.89 1.92 / 1.97 2.54 / 2.64 1.89 / 2.03
80 Paolo Banchero PF Orlando Magic 72 5.8 6.71 / 6.92 2.59 / 2.69 1.88 / 1.87 1.15 / 1.06
81 Herbert Jones SF New Orleans Pelicans 50 5.7 4.1 / 3.9 1.57 / 1.7 1.53 / 1.51 1.0 / 0.91
82 Dillon Brooks SF Phoenix Suns 57 5.6 5.9 / 5.95 1.59 / 1.59 1.27 / 1.19 1.23 / 1.19
83 Max Christie SG Dallas Mavericks 64 5.6 4.28 / 4.53 1.52 / 1.63 1.35 / 1.25 1.09 / 1.14
84 Rudy Gobert C Minnesota Timberwolves 82 5.6 4.36 / 4.52 2.99 / 3.02 1.13 / 1.11 0.02 / 0.0
85 Cason Wallace SG Oklahoma City Thunder 54 5.5 4.95 / 4.99 1.63 / 1.62 1.56 / 1.55 1.28 / 1.27
86 OG Anunoby PF New York Knicks 78 5.5 6.12 / 6.21 2.3 / 2.38 1.29 / 1.29 1.3 / 1.31
87 Jarace Walker PF Indiana Pacers 38 5.4 4.3 / 4.41 2.28 / 2.52 1.79 / 1.83 1.06 / 1.05
88 Kyshawn George SG Washington Wizards 42 5.4 5.35 / 5.52 2.39 / 2.45 1.97 / 1.7 1.15 / 1.21
89 Donovan Mitchell SG Cleveland Cavaliers 83 5.3 6.88 / 7.17 1.98 / 1.98 1.91 / 1.83 1.33 / 1.36
90 Jordan Walsh PF Boston Celtics 25 5.3 4.07 / 4.06 2.27 / 2.22 1.11 / 1.15 0.69 / 0.74
91 Victor Wembanyama C San Antonio Spurs 71 5.3 7.25 / 7.52 3.48 / 3.49 1.68 / 1.49 1.36 / 1.45
92 Kyle Kuzma PF Milwaukee Bucks 42 5.2 5.97 / 6.13 2.19 / 2.11 2.0 / 2.07 1.18 / 1.16
93 Luguentz Dort SF Oklahoma City Thunder 78 5.2 4.23 / 4.08 1.39 / 1.42 0.96 / 0.94 1.13 / 1.13
94 Miles Bridges SF Charlotte Hornets 70 5.2 5.93 / 5.91 2.42 / 2.5 1.81 / 1.88 1.5 / 1.46
95 DeMar DeRozan SF Sacramento Kings 70 5.1 7.62 / 7.85 1.47 / 1.42 1.96 / 1.98 0.84 / 0.73
96 Luka Dončić PG Los Angeles Lakers 60 5.1 6.88 / 7.38 2.57 / 2.68 2.64 / 2.77 1.49 / 1.57
97 Tyrese Maxey PG Philadelphia 76ers 75 5.1 6.26 / 6.48 2.09 / 2.1 2.25 / 2.4 1.43 / 1.5
98 Donovan Clingan C Portland Trail Blazers 76 5.0 4.66 / 4.9 3.18 / 3.13 1.38 / 1.43 0.91 / 0.91
99 Jalen Brunson PG New York Knicks 87 5.0 6.54 / 6.98 1.57 / 1.59 2.46 / 2.48 1.45 / 1.48
100 Toumani Camara PF Portland Trail Blazers 81 5.0 4.91 / 5.14 1.98 / 2.01 1.16 / 1.24 1.39 / 1.44
101 Marcus Smart PG Los Angeles Lakers 61 4.9 4.84 / 4.72 1.48 / 1.48 1.83 / 1.87 1.31 / 1.25
102 Tre Johnson SG Washington Wizards 42 4.9 4.06 / 4.07 1.86 / 1.89 1.12 / 1.05 1.22 / 1.17
103 James Harden PG Cleveland Cavaliers 82 4.8 5.83 / 5.92 1.97 / 1.96 2.08 / 2.23 1.41 / 1.49
104 Onyeka Okongwu C Atlanta Hawks 67 4.8 5.42 / 5.39 2.31 / 2.34 1.51 / 1.51 1.42 / 1.47
105 Cade Cunningham PG Detroit Pistons 72 4.7 6.95 / 7.12 2.21 / 2.3 2.47 / 2.43 1.26 / 1.3
106 Cooper Flagg SF Dallas Mavericks 63 4.7 7.09 / 7.18 2.12 / 2.17 1.97 / 2.03 0.98 / 0.88
107 Davion Mitchell PG Miami Heat 63 4.7 3.7 / 3.84 1.2 / 1.17 2.26 / 2.2 0.96 / 1.0
108 Moses Moody SG Golden State Warriors 49 4.7 5.91 / 5.8 1.65 / 1.58 1.09 / 1.11 1.56 / 1.46
109 Neemias Queta C Boston Celtics 74 4.7 3.94 / 4.03 3.18 / 3.27 1.1 / 1.14 0.05 / 0.02
110 Immanuel Quickley PG Toronto Raptors 64 4.5 5.57 / 5.66 1.58 / 1.66 2.26 / 2.24 1.27 / 1.32
111 Sam Hauser PF Boston Celtics 53 4.5 4.48 / 4.53 1.41 / 1.43 0.97 / 1.04 1.34 / 1.38
112 Tristan Da Silva SF Orlando Magic 34 4.5 4.83 / 5.33 2.21 / 1.99 1.23 / 1.15 1.0 / 1.08
113 Evan Mobley PF Cleveland Cavaliers 75 4.4 4.48 / 4.59 2.81 / 3.02 1.4 / 1.41 0.95 / 0.93
114 Johnny Furphy SG Indiana Pacers 21 4.4 3.89 / 3.33 2.3 / 2.56 0.84 / 1.01 0.83 / 0.71
115 Chet Holmgren C Oklahoma City Thunder 80 4.3 5.03 / 5.16 2.52 / 2.52 1.0 / 1.01 1.01 / 1.0
116 Jaden McDaniels PF Minnesota Timberwolves 79 4.3 5.31 / 5.43 1.85 / 1.86 1.17 / 1.19 1.17 / 1.07
117 Jarrett Allen C Cleveland Cavaliers 69 4.3 5.49 / 5.33 2.82 / 2.86 1.19 / 1.01 0.1 / 0.03
118 Jrue Holiday PG Portland Trail Blazers 50 4.3 6.0 / 6.2 1.89 / 1.84 2.61 / 2.57 1.62 / 1.71
119 Nikola Jokić C Denver Nuggets 65 4.2 6.69 / 6.82 3.18 / 3.29 3.09 / 3.0 1.16 / 1.18
120 Tobias Harris PF Detroit Pistons 71 4.1 5.52 / 5.6 1.93 / 1.95 1.46 / 1.43 1.14 / 1.05
121 Julius Randle PF Minnesota Timberwolves 85 3.9 6.39 / 6.22 2.15 / 2.19 2.12 / 2.17 1.1 / 0.98
122 Keyonte George PG Utah Jazz 48 3.9 7.77 / 8.21 1.73 / 1.63 2.04 / 1.93 1.6 / 1.66
123 Kris Dunn PG Los Angeles Clippers 68 3.9 3.85 / 3.68 1.75 / 1.75 1.84 / 1.77 0.91 / 0.88
124 RJ Barrett SF Toronto Raptors 58 3.9 4.52 / 4.52 1.71 / 1.84 1.36 / 1.3 1.06 / 1.12
125 Rui Hachimura PF Los Angeles Lakers 44 3.8 4.68 / 4.62 1.67 / 1.76 0.91 / 0.75 0.99 / 0.97
126 A.J. Green SG Milwaukee Bucks 62 3.7 5.48 / 5.37 1.48 / 1.46 1.25 / 1.3 1.75 / 1.71
127 Kel'el Ware C Miami Heat 29 3.7 5.37 / 5.5 3.23 / 3.14 0.83 / 0.63 1.01 / 1.03
128 Josh Okogie SG Houston Rockets 30 3.6 3.53 / 3.38 1.78 / 1.94 0.99 / 0.75 0.85 / 0.7
129 Ryan Rollins PG Milwaukee Bucks 62 3.6 5.54 / 5.56 2.06 / 2.08 1.98 / 2.03 1.25 / 1.32
130 Jakob Poeltl C Toronto Raptors 47 3.5 4.63 / 4.77 2.52 / 2.35 1.39 / 1.37 0.02 / 0.0
131 Quinten Post PF Golden State Warriors 32 3.5 4.2 / 4.21 2.78 / 2.51 1.17 / 1.25 1.15 / 1.18
132 Deni Avdija SF Portland Trail Blazers 65 3.4 5.79 / 5.98 2.13 / 2.22 2.52 / 2.67 1.09 / 0.97
133 Donte DiVincenzo SG Minnesota Timberwolves 80 3.4 5.02 / 5.03 1.69 / 1.71 1.74 / 1.72 1.37 / 1.45
134 Mark Williams C Phoenix Suns 52 3.4 5.16 / 5.08 2.8 / 2.69 0.99 / 0.83 0.1 / 0.04
135 Russell Westbrook PG Sacramento Kings 55 3.4 5.32 / 5.32 2.71 / 2.74 2.75 / 2.56 1.09 / 1.15
136 Harrison Barnes PF San Antonio Spurs 46 3.3 5.73 / 5.54 1.68 / 1.65 1.34 / 1.41 1.39 / 1.34
137 Julian Champagnie SF San Antonio Spurs 85 3.3 4.92 / 4.99 2.19 / 2.22 1.0 / 1.01 1.55 / 1.61
138 Naji Marshall SF Dallas Mavericks 47 3.3 5.9 / 6.05 2.09 / 2.06 1.7 / 1.77 0.89 / 0.8
139 Isaiah Hartenstein C Oklahoma City Thunder 54 3.2 3.82 / 3.82 3.08 / 3.08 1.73 / 1.81 0.03 / 0.0
140 Myles Turner C Milwaukee Bucks 65 3.2 5.09 / 4.97 2.34 / 2.32 1.0 / 1.02 1.07 / 1.17
141 Josh Hart SG New York Knicks 71 3.0 5.24 / 5.19 2.58 / 2.61 1.78 / 1.83 1.26 / 1.26
142 Karl-Anthony Towns C New York Knicks 88 3.0 5.59 / 5.67 3.03 / 3.07 1.73 / 1.63 1.03 / 1.08
143 Michael Porter Jr. SF Brooklyn Nets 46 3.0 6.32 / 6.15 2.88 / 2.96 1.68 / 1.54 1.79 / 1.72
144 Alex Sarr C Washington Wizards 42 2.9 5.88 / 6.02 3.21 / 3.01 1.52 / 1.43 0.8 / 0.86
145 Duncan Robinson SF Detroit Pistons 82 2.9 4.15 / 4.18 1.3 / 1.36 1.14 / 1.14 1.25 / 1.3
146 Jalen Suggs PG Orlando Magic 58 2.9 4.93 / 4.89 1.77 / 1.65 2.02 / 2.1 1.15 / 1.13
147 Wendell Carter Jr. C Orlando Magic 78 2.9 4.48 / 4.5 2.28 / 2.32 1.09 / 1.04 0.78 / 0.74
148 Andrew Wiggins SF Miami Heat 61 2.8 4.74 / 4.81 1.99 / 1.96 1.3 / 1.31 1.08 / 1.09
149 Derrick Jones Jr. SF Los Angeles Clippers 39 2.8 4.51 / 4.46 1.63 / 1.62 1.11 / 1.11 1.05 / 0.99
150 Dyson Daniels SG Atlanta Hawks 76 2.7 4.76 / 4.61 2.22 / 2.24 2.34 / 2.47 0.51 / 0.41
151 Jalen Duren C Detroit Pistons 78 2.7 5.16 / 5.13 3.24 / 3.37 1.23 / 1.23 0.05 / 0.0
152 Matas Buzelis SF Chicago Bulls 71 2.7 5.07 / 5.25 2.03 / 2.04 1.29 / 1.26 1.09 / 1.11
153 Coby White SG Chicago Bulls 26 2.5 5.29 / 5.33 1.89 / 1.93 1.94 / 1.91 1.61 / 1.6
154 Jalen Johnson SF Atlanta Hawks 73 2.5 6.37 / 6.45 2.71 / 2.65 2.29 / 2.32 1.1 / 1.15
155 Norman Powell SG Miami Heat 48 2.5 5.01 / 5.26 1.58 / 1.62 1.49 / 1.35 1.59 / 1.61
156 Brandin Podziemski SG Golden State Warriors 39 2.4 5.12 / 5.08 2.17 / 2.1 2.12 / 2.09 1.11 / 1.13
157 Desmond Bane SG Orlando Magic 82 2.4 6.21 / 6.4 1.74 / 1.71 1.6 / 1.63 1.23 / 1.29
158 Aaron Nesmith SF Indiana Pacers 36 2.3 5.57 / 5.49 2.05 / 2.03 1.38 / 1.39 1.31 / 1.31
159 Cam Spencer SG Memphis Grizzlies 20 2.3 5.23 / 5.05 1.61 / 1.59 3.35 / 3.3 1.29 / 1.36
160 Jeremiah Fears PG New Orleans Pelicans 45 2.3 5.7 / 5.5 1.42 / 1.5 1.56 / 1.34 1.04 / 0.9
161 Jusuf Nurkić C Utah Jazz 35 2.1 4.43 / 4.23 2.82 / 3.02 2.35 / 2.56 0.73 / 0.62
162 Olivier-Maxence Prosper PF Memphis Grizzlies 24 2.1 5.04 / 5.42 2.56 / 2.17 0.94 / 0.85 0.98 / 1.08
163 Payton Pritchard PG Boston Celtics 43 2.1 7.47 / 7.68 1.34 / 1.24 1.81 / 1.95 1.49 / 1.55
164 Cedric Coward SG Memphis Grizzlies 47 2.0 4.62 / 4.48 2.86 / 2.89 1.46 / 1.42 1.15 / 1.13
165 John Collins PF Los Angeles Clippers 56 2.0 4.78 / 4.62 2.31 / 2.36 1.09 / 0.92 1.08 / 1.07
166 Bilal Coulibaly SF Washington Wizards 54 1.9 4.72 / 4.56 1.82 / 1.78 1.34 / 1.3 1.11 / 1.05
167 Derrick White SG Boston Celtics 77 1.9 6.05 / 5.87 1.74 / 1.69 1.84 / 1.85 1.45 / 1.48
168 Kon Knueppel SF Charlotte Hornets 74 1.9 5.56 / 5.61 2.13 / 2.17 1.59 / 1.6 1.45 / 1.46
169 Mikal Bridges SF New York Knicks 95 1.9 5.0 / 5.06 1.77 / 1.75 1.53 / 1.65 1.16 / 1.15
170 Tari Eason PF Houston Rockets 37 1.8 4.75 / 4.26 2.44 / 2.58 1.15 / 1.14 1.05 / 0.94
171 Terance Mann SG Brooklyn Nets 45 1.8 3.74 / 3.34 1.49 / 1.5 1.73 / 1.72 0.86 / 0.74
172 Nickeil Alexander-Walker SG Atlanta Hawks 74 1.7 5.32 / 5.54 1.68 / 1.66 1.6 / 1.66 1.37 / 1.41
173 Svi Mykhailiuk SF Utah Jazz 35 1.6 4.12 / 4.08 1.2 / 1.24 1.14 / 1.23 1.06 / 1.03
174 Devin Vassell SG San Antonio Spurs 82 1.5 4.6 / 4.6 1.68 / 1.71 1.11 / 1.13 1.34 / 1.33
175 Royce O'Neale SF Phoenix Suns 63 1.5 3.71 / 3.76 1.68 / 1.65 1.35 / 1.42 1.26 / 1.33
176 Devin Booker SG Phoenix Suns 61 1.4 6.0 / 6.18 1.88 / 1.85 2.07 / 2.23 1.18 / 1.11
177 Draymond Green PF Golden State Warriors 61 1.4 4.84 / 4.39 1.9 / 1.89 2.3 / 2.29 1.19 / 1.22
178 Jimmy Butler SF Golden State Warriors 31 1.3 5.43 / 5.15 1.88 / 1.97 1.83 / 2.05 0.92 / 0.85
179 De'Andre Hunter SF Sacramento Kings 21 1.1 5.55 / 5.61 1.47 / 1.24 1.69 / 1.4 1.47 / 1.41
180 Jalen Smith C Chicago Bulls 21 1.1 2.95 / 3.31 2.74 / 2.73 1.01 / 0.93 0.89 / 0.93
181 Jaylen Wells SG Memphis Grizzlies 63 1.0 4.8 / 4.45 1.42 / 1.42 1.14 / 1.1 1.04 / 1.05
182 Bam Adebayo C Miami Heat 66 0.9 6.22 / 6.12 2.67 / 2.71 1.55 / 1.63 1.25 / 1.24
183 Aaron Gordon PF Denver Nuggets 30 0.8 6.16 / 5.68 2.25 / 2.16 1.53 / 1.51 1.09 / 1.05
184 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander PG Oklahoma City Thunder 76 0.7 5.85 / 6.22 1.79 / 1.72 2.23 / 2.14 0.92 / 0.88
185 Trey Murphy III SF New Orleans Pelicans 60 0.7 6.09 / 6.16 2.11 / 2.13 1.53 / 1.51 1.49 / 1.49
186 Josh Giddey PG Chicago Bulls 45 0.5 5.99 / 5.56 2.89 / 2.94 3.06 / 2.98 1.25 / 1.26
187 Franz Wagner SF Orlando Magic 29 0.4 4.65 / 4.8 1.75 / 1.73 1.55 / 1.36 1.3 / 1.19
188 Kevin Durant PF Houston Rockets 73 0.4 5.77 / 5.86 1.82 / 1.84 2.07 / 2.14 1.14 / 1.18
189 Luke Kornet C San Antonio Spurs 26 0.4 4.46 / 4.16 2.06 / 1.92 1.3 / 1.28 0.07 / 0.04
190 Shaedon Sharpe SG Portland Trail Blazers 36 0.2 5.36 / 5.54 1.81 / 1.82 1.47 / 1.19 1.44 / 1.38
191 Kawhi Leonard SF Los Angeles Clippers 59 0.1 5.24 / 5.67 2.2 / 2.13 1.33 / 1.32 1.35 / 1.46
192 LaMelo Ball PG Charlotte Hornets 63 0.1 5.43 / 5.25 1.92 / 1.88 2.11 / 2.15 1.61 / 1.57
193 Bub Carrington PG Washington Wizards 44 0.0 4.26 / 4.63 1.44 / 1.4 1.77 / 1.91 1.31 / 1.36
194 Pascal Siakam PF Indiana Pacers 56 -0.0 5.16 / 5.3 2.06 / 1.99 1.72 / 1.67 1.27 / 1.3
195 Ayo Dosunmu SG Minnesota Timberwolves 23 -0.1 5.01 / 5.02 2.46 / 2.5 2.72 / 2.78 1.15 / 1.16
196 Stephon Castle PG San Antonio Spurs 84 -0.7 5.16 / 4.9 2.28 / 2.19 2.24 / 2.3 1.03 / 0.96
197 Jabari Smith Jr. PF Houston Rockets 78 -1.0 3.95 / 4.24 2.58 / 2.52 1.14 / 1.07 1.16 / 1.23
198 Christian Braun SG Denver Nuggets 44 -1.4 5.12 / 4.52 2.09 / 2.01 1.69 / 1.64 0.94 / 0.82
199 Amen Thompson SF Houston Rockets 79 -1.5 4.8 / 4.9 2.59 / 2.47 1.98 / 2.01 0.66 / 0.48
200 Jaylen Brown SF Boston Celtics 71 -1.5 5.62 / 5.66 2.42 / 2.38 2.05 / 1.98 1.02 / 1.02
201 Dominick Barlow SF Philadelphia 76ers 57 -2.1 3.95 / 3.82 2.71 / 2.58 1.27 / 1.09 0.57 / 0.46
202 Scottie Barnes PF Toronto Raptors 81 -2.5 4.89 / 4.62 2.7 / 2.6 2.45 / 2.42 0.89 / 0.88
203 Zion Williamson PF New Orleans Pelicans 50 -3.1 5.18 / 5.24 2.23 / 2.09 1.63 / 1.5 0.15 / 0.03
204 Ausar Thompson SF Detroit Pistons 80 -3.4 3.75 / 3.23 2.05 / 2.08 1.7 / 1.65 0.28 / 0.14
205 Grayson Allen SG Phoenix Suns 20 -3.5 5.89 / 5.26 1.52 / 1.42 1.55 / 1.54 1.83 / 1.72
206 Nic Claxton C Brooklyn Nets 62 -4.0 3.79 / 3.48 2.31 / 2.27 1.95 / 2.09 0.12 / 0.09
207 Ryan Kalkbrenner C Charlotte Hornets 24 -5.6 3.27 / 2.66 2.29 / 2.22 0.96 / 0.92 0.03 / 0.0

Starts = games started (projections assume the starting five, so only those games count). MAE = mean absolute error per game, lower is better; the grey number is the naive rolling-average baseline on the same games. Tap any column header to sort.

How the score works

A high score does not mean a better player, it means a player whose production our models can call game by game. For fantasy that is the difference between a floor you can bank on and a coin flip. The score compares two forecasters on the games a player started: our model, which publishes a full probability distribution for his points and rebounds before tip-off, and a naive one that just averages his season and last-5 numbers. We measure both with CRPS, a standard score for probabilistic forecasts, and report how much better the model is, in percent. Positive means the model reads that player better than the rolling average; around zero means his games are hard to call for anyone. The full write-up, including why assists and threes are shown but kept out of the score, is in how the predictability score works.

Click any player for his game-by-game predicted vs actual profile with probability bands. Today's projections live on the NBA player projections page; how the models work is on the methodology page.