NBA Player Predictability Board

How predictable is each NBA starter? Before every game we project points and rebounds for the expected starting five. This board compares those projections with what each player actually produced over the 2025-26 season, for every starter with at least 20 starts. The score measures how much closer our projections get than a simple average of the player's recent games: the higher it is, the easier that player is to call in advance. The details are in how the score works.

Season 2025-26 season backtest
# Player Pos Team Starts Score PTS MAEmodel / naive REB MAEmodel / naive AST MAEmodel / naive 3PM MAEmodel / naive
1 Jock Landale C Atlanta Hawks 21 23.8 4.33 / 5.52 2.39 / 2.85 1.12 / 1.34 0.97 / 1.06
2 Jalen Williams SG Oklahoma City Thunder 37 17.2 4.97 / 5.77 2.11 / 2.31 2.12 / 2.42 0.73 / 0.76
3 Jalen Green SG Phoenix Suns 31 16.0 7.19 / 8.47 1.54 / 1.63 1.82 / 1.83 1.54 / 1.67
4 Ja'Kobe Walter SG Toronto Raptors 24 15.0 6.15 / 6.22 1.94 / 2.19 1.04 / 1.04 1.65 / 1.69
5 Gui Santos PF Golden State Warriors 30 14.5 5.6 / 6.11 2.27 / 2.45 1.94 / 2.0 1.04 / 1.08
6 Kyle Filipowski C Utah Jazz 36 13.7 5.53 / 6.04 3.01 / 3.29 1.55 / 1.65 0.68 / 0.75
7 GG Jackson II PF Memphis Grizzlies 28 13.5 4.95 / 5.64 2.03 / 2.01 1.23 / 0.99 0.92 / 0.97
8 Will Richard SG Golden State Warriors 21 13.5 5.84 / 5.57 1.86 / 1.99 1.42 / 1.47 0.99 / 0.91
9 Kevin Porter Jr. SG Milwaukee Bucks 35 12.6 6.6 / 7.13 1.97 / 2.17 2.3 / 2.35 1.17 / 1.08
10 Keegan Murray PF Sacramento Kings 22 12.4 6.44 / 6.75 3.22 / 3.46 0.92 / 1.07 1.05 / 1.04
11 Nolan Traoré PG Brooklyn Nets 31 12.3 4.41 / 4.96 0.93 / 0.92 2.03 / 2.09 1.05 / 0.95
12 Spencer Jones SF Denver Nuggets 40 12.2 5.13 / 5.08 1.69 / 1.75 0.97 / 0.81 1.29 / 1.33
13 Joel Embiid C Philadelphia 76ers 41 11.8 6.04 / 6.69 2.63 / 2.84 1.89 / 1.88 0.97 / 0.76
14 Oso Ighodaro PF Phoenix Suns 24 11.8 3.57 / 3.95 2.04 / 2.27 2.26 / 2.09 0.03 / 0.0
15 Cody Williams SG Utah Jazz 41 11.5 5.23 / 5.56 1.99 / 2.07 1.53 / 1.65 0.71 / 0.58
16 Baylor Scheierman SG Boston Celtics 21 11.3 4.36 / 5.04 2.71 / 2.88 1.76 / 1.89 1.04 / 1.17
17 Brook Lopez C Los Angeles Clippers 40 10.9 5.43 / 5.4 2.26 / 2.39 1.05 / 1.09 1.39 / 1.32
18 Andre Drummond C Philadelphia 76ers 26 10.8 3.98 / 3.91 3.58 / 4.06 1.06 / 1.06 0.74 / 0.7
19 Daniss Jenkins PG Detroit Pistons 22 10.7 5.71 / 6.5 1.54 / 1.46 2.67 / 2.96 1.1 / 1.14
20 Jaren Jackson Jr. C Utah Jazz 42 10.7 5.42 / 5.74 1.99 / 2.14 1.18 / 1.1 1.11 / 1.14
21 Ryan Nembhard PG Dallas Mavericks 27 10.6 4.66 / 5.05 1.59 / 1.58 2.81 / 2.9 0.97 / 1.07
22 Tyler Herro SG Miami Heat 28 10.2 5.08 / 5.82 2.24 / 2.19 1.64 / 1.46 1.5 / 1.55
23 Jaylon Tyson SG Cleveland Cavaliers 38 10.1 4.91 / 5.6 2.24 / 2.45 1.08 / 1.31 1.27 / 1.38
24 Pelle Larsson SG Miami Heat 50 10.1 4.58 / 4.87 1.76 / 1.86 1.52 / 1.58 0.99 / 0.9
25 Zach LaVine SG Sacramento Kings 30 10.1 7.34 / 7.87 1.48 / 1.5 1.39 / 1.24 1.45 / 1.56
26 Jerami Grant PF Portland Trail Blazers 38 9.8 6.39 / 6.71 1.43 / 1.55 1.36 / 1.19 1.39 / 1.44
27 Kelly Oubre Jr. SF Philadelphia 76ers 46 9.8 5.63 / 6.26 1.76 / 1.79 1.12 / 0.97 1.36 / 1.36
28 Sam Merrill SG Cleveland Cavaliers 34 9.8 4.9 / 5.24 1.59 / 1.59 1.01 / 1.2 1.51 / 1.61
29 Ace Bailey SF Utah Jazz 61 9.7 5.68 / 6.15 1.89 / 2.0 1.27 / 1.17 1.25 / 1.33
30 Andrew Nembhard SG Indiana Pacers 56 9.2 5.87 / 6.22 1.49 / 1.58 2.46 / 2.41 1.0 / 1.05
31 Ivica Zubac C Indiana Pacers 41 9.2 5.03 / 5.2 2.77 / 3.06 1.21 / 1.19 0.05 / 0.0
32 Peyton Watson SF Denver Nuggets 40 9.2 6.05 / 6.4 1.93 / 1.99 1.11 / 1.2 1.21 / 1.28
33 Ajay Mitchell SG Oklahoma City Thunder 23 9.1 4.68 / 4.98 1.16 / 1.34 1.69 / 1.84 0.79 / 0.77
34 P.J. Washington PF Dallas Mavericks 46 9.1 4.98 / 5.16 2.29 / 2.43 1.3 / 1.05 0.99 / 0.96
35 Paul George PF Philadelphia 76ers 48 9.0 5.13 / 5.45 2.1 / 2.08 1.42 / 1.46 1.45 / 1.48
36 Jayson Tatum PF Boston Celtics 22 8.9 3.64 / 4.22 3.92 / 3.97 2.87 / 2.96 1.25 / 1.31
37 Brandon Miller SF Charlotte Hornets 63 8.8 5.0 / 5.53 2.2 / 2.32 1.44 / 1.45 1.28 / 1.42
38 Stephen Curry PG Golden State Warriors 34 8.7 8.25 / 8.84 1.67 / 1.75 2.15 / 2.13 1.92 / 2.18
39 Derik Queen C New Orleans Pelicans 48 8.5 5.99 / 6.01 2.7 / 2.91 2.11 / 2.17 0.51 / 0.43
40 Egor Dёmin - Brooklyn Nets 38 8.5 5.91 / 6.03 2.23 / 2.23 1.49 / 1.46 1.39 / 1.43
41 Jay Huff C Indiana Pacers 46 8.5 4.57 / 5.04 2.17 / 2.06 0.96 / 0.97 1.13 / 1.2
42 Noah Clowney PF Brooklyn Nets 60 8.5 5.4 / 5.4 1.97 / 2.02 1.13 / 1.11 1.41 / 1.42
43 Giannis Antetokounmpo PF Milwaukee Bucks 31 8.4 5.74 / 6.42 3.7 / 3.85 2.87 / 2.75 0.44 / 0.5
44 Reed Sheppard PG Houston Rockets 26 7.9 4.95 / 5.36 1.9 / 1.97 2.39 / 2.64 1.41 / 1.49
45 Collin Murray-Boyles PF Toronto Raptors 20 7.8 4.41 / 4.56 2.78 / 2.76 1.47 / 1.52 0.45 / 0.4
46 Cameron Johnson PF Denver Nuggets 54 7.7 5.13 / 5.3 1.65 / 1.71 1.28 / 1.31 1.26 / 1.27
47 Alperen Şengün C Houston Rockets 72 7.5 6.48 / 6.44 3.0 / 3.2 2.22 / 2.23 0.76 / 0.67
48 Brandon Ingram SF Toronto Raptors 76 7.5 6.53 / 6.77 1.86 / 1.97 1.71 / 1.52 1.31 / 1.33
49 Isaac Okoro SG Chicago Bulls 56 7.5 4.2 / 4.23 1.3 / 1.33 1.15 / 1.15 1.04 / 1.0
50 Darius Garland PG Los Angeles Clippers 43 7.4 5.53 / 6.32 1.47 / 1.3 1.97 / 2.18 1.54 / 1.73
51 Deandre Ayton C Los Angeles Lakers 76 7.4 5.67 / 5.84 3.22 / 3.25 0.9 / 0.76 0.04 / 0.0
52 Nikola Vučević C Boston Celtics 43 7.4 5.08 / 5.3 2.8 / 2.98 1.72 / 1.76 0.87 / 0.92
53 Moussa Diabaté C Charlotte Hornets 47 7.3 3.78 / 3.99 2.95 / 3.12 1.46 / 1.42 0.06 / 0.04
54 Nique Clifford SG Sacramento Kings 27 7.3 5.78 / 5.96 1.61 / 1.65 1.6 / 1.77 1.11 / 1.05
55 Anthony Black PG Orlando Magic 39 7.2 6.32 / 6.7 1.45 / 1.46 1.43 / 1.44 1.21 / 1.22
56 Lauri Markkanen PF Utah Jazz 36 7.2 6.17 / 6.62 2.37 / 2.38 1.16 / 1.02 1.14 / 1.26
57 Sidy Cissoko SF Portland Trail Blazers 26 7.1 4.17 / 3.81 1.51 / 1.39 1.14 / 0.91 1.0 / 0.85
58 Austin Reaves SG Los Angeles Lakers 43 7.0 7.26 / 7.18 1.97 / 2.05 2.19 / 2.22 1.24 / 1.14
59 De'Anthony Melton PG Golden State Warriors 24 7.0 7.58 / 7.46 1.87 / 1.87 1.32 / 1.26 1.12 / 1.07
60 Maxime Raynaud C Sacramento Kings 56 7.0 5.36 / 5.5 2.65 / 2.78 1.0 / 0.97 0.52 / 0.49
61 Brice Sensabaugh SF Utah Jazz 22 6.8 8.0 / 8.06 1.02 / 1.01 1.4 / 1.65 1.42 / 1.49
62 Anthony Edwards SG Minnesota Timberwolves 65 6.7 7.99 / 8.26 2.15 / 2.23 1.71 / 1.53 1.54 / 1.62
63 Bennedict Mathurin SF Los Angeles Clippers 23 6.5 6.6 / 6.47 1.71 / 1.72 1.28 / 0.94 1.14 / 1.2
64 Khris Middleton SF Dallas Mavericks 44 6.5 4.67 / 4.67 1.88 / 1.89 1.64 / 1.57 0.79 / 0.77
65 LeBron James SF Los Angeles Lakers 70 6.5 4.96 / 5.16 2.34 / 2.46 2.4 / 2.61 1.04 / 0.99
66 Daniel Gafford C Dallas Mavericks 42 6.4 4.84 / 4.85 2.66 / 2.67 1.16 / 1.01 0.03 / 0.0
67 Tre Jones PG Chicago Bulls 35 6.4 5.58 / 5.65 1.78 / 1.88 2.12 / 2.11 0.8 / 0.81
68 CJ McCollum PG Atlanta Hawks 60 6.3 7.12 / 7.11 1.6 / 1.65 1.51 / 1.43 1.58 / 1.61
69 Collin Gillespie PG Phoenix Suns 61 6.3 5.59 / 5.89 1.51 / 1.56 1.92 / 2.03 1.56 / 1.63
70 Saddiq Bey SF New Orleans Pelicans 63 6.2 5.38 / 5.94 1.99 / 2.12 1.43 / 1.46 1.18 / 1.17
71 Dean Wade PF Cleveland Cavaliers 51 6.1 3.77 / 3.66 1.64 / 1.68 1.08 / 1.06 0.95 / 0.89
72 Ousmane Dieng C Milwaukee Bucks 20 6.1 5.05 / 5.42 2.6 / 2.68 2.74 / 2.88 1.15 / 1.11
73 Jake LaRavia PF Los Angeles Lakers 41 6.0 5.26 / 5.0 1.82 / 1.9 1.19 / 1.12 1.21 / 1.15
74 Precious Achiuwa - Sacramento Kings 57 6.0 5.54 / 5.44 2.99 / 2.92 1.17 / 1.16 0.6 / 0.58
75 De'Aaron Fox PG San Antonio Spurs 93 5.9 5.66 / 5.76 1.66 / 1.69 1.92 / 1.99 1.18 / 1.13
76 VJ Edgecombe SG Philadelphia 76ers 80 5.9 5.99 / 5.99 2.03 / 2.07 1.81 / 1.84 1.35 / 1.35
77 Zaccharie Risacher SF Atlanta Hawks 42 5.9 4.98 / 4.42 1.61 / 1.6 1.39 / 1.27 1.31 / 1.23
78 Drake Powell SG Brooklyn Nets 24 5.8 3.41 / 3.95 1.62 / 1.42 1.2 / 1.19 1.06 / 0.93
79 Jamal Murray PG Denver Nuggets 75 5.8 7.53 / 7.89 1.92 / 1.97 2.54 / 2.64 1.89 / 2.03
80 Paolo Banchero PF Orlando Magic 72 5.8 6.71 / 6.92 2.59 / 2.69 1.88 / 1.87 1.15 / 1.06
81 Herbert Jones SF New Orleans Pelicans 50 5.7 4.1 / 3.9 1.57 / 1.7 1.53 / 1.51 1.0 / 0.91
82 Dillon Brooks SF Phoenix Suns 57 5.6 5.9 / 5.95 1.59 / 1.59 1.27 / 1.19 1.23 / 1.19
83 Max Christie SG Dallas Mavericks 64 5.6 4.28 / 4.53 1.52 / 1.63 1.35 / 1.25 1.09 / 1.14
84 Rudy Gobert C Minnesota Timberwolves 82 5.6 4.36 / 4.52 2.99 / 3.02 1.13 / 1.11 0.02 / 0.0
85 Cason Wallace SG Oklahoma City Thunder 54 5.5 4.95 / 4.99 1.63 / 1.62 1.56 / 1.55 1.28 / 1.27
86 OG Anunoby PF New York Knicks 78 5.5 6.12 / 6.21 2.3 / 2.38 1.29 / 1.29 1.3 / 1.31
87 Jarace Walker PF Indiana Pacers 38 5.4 4.3 / 4.41 2.28 / 2.52 1.79 / 1.83 1.06 / 1.05
88 Kyshawn George SG Washington Wizards 42 5.4 5.35 / 5.52 2.39 / 2.45 1.97 / 1.7 1.15 / 1.21
89 Donovan Mitchell SG Cleveland Cavaliers 83 5.3 6.88 / 7.17 1.98 / 1.98 1.91 / 1.83 1.33 / 1.36
90 Jordan Walsh PF Boston Celtics 25 5.3 4.07 / 4.06 2.27 / 2.22 1.11 / 1.15 0.69 / 0.74
91 Victor Wembanyama C San Antonio Spurs 71 5.3 7.25 / 7.52 3.48 / 3.49 1.68 / 1.49 1.36 / 1.45
92 Kyle Kuzma PF Milwaukee Bucks 42 5.2 5.97 / 6.13 2.19 / 2.11 2.0 / 2.07 1.18 / 1.16
93 Luguentz Dort SF Oklahoma City Thunder 78 5.2 4.23 / 4.08 1.39 / 1.42 0.96 / 0.94 1.13 / 1.13
94 Miles Bridges SF Charlotte Hornets 70 5.2 5.93 / 5.91 2.42 / 2.5 1.81 / 1.88 1.5 / 1.46
95 DeMar DeRozan SF Sacramento Kings 70 5.1 7.62 / 7.85 1.47 / 1.42 1.96 / 1.98 0.84 / 0.73
96 Luka Dončić PG Los Angeles Lakers 60 5.1 6.88 / 7.38 2.57 / 2.68 2.64 / 2.77 1.49 / 1.57
97 Tyrese Maxey PG Philadelphia 76ers 75 5.1 6.26 / 6.48 2.09 / 2.1 2.25 / 2.4 1.43 / 1.5
98 Donovan Clingan C Portland Trail Blazers 76 5.0 4.66 / 4.9 3.18 / 3.13 1.38 / 1.43 0.91 / 0.91
99 Jalen Brunson PG New York Knicks 87 5.0 6.54 / 6.98 1.57 / 1.59 2.46 / 2.48 1.45 / 1.48
100 Toumani Camara PF Portland Trail Blazers 81 5.0 4.91 / 5.14 1.98 / 2.01 1.16 / 1.24 1.39 / 1.44
101 Marcus Smart PG Los Angeles Lakers 61 4.9 4.84 / 4.72 1.48 / 1.48 1.83 / 1.87 1.31 / 1.25
102 Tre Johnson SG Washington Wizards 42 4.9 4.06 / 4.07 1.86 / 1.89 1.12 / 1.05 1.22 / 1.17
103 James Harden PG Cleveland Cavaliers 82 4.8 5.83 / 5.92 1.97 / 1.96 2.08 / 2.23 1.41 / 1.49
104 Onyeka Okongwu C Atlanta Hawks 67 4.8 5.42 / 5.39 2.31 / 2.34 1.51 / 1.51 1.42 / 1.47
105 Cade Cunningham PG Detroit Pistons 72 4.7 6.95 / 7.12 2.21 / 2.3 2.47 / 2.43 1.26 / 1.3
106 Cooper Flagg SF Dallas Mavericks 63 4.7 7.09 / 7.18 2.12 / 2.17 1.97 / 2.03 0.98 / 0.88
107 Davion Mitchell PG Miami Heat 63 4.7 3.7 / 3.84 1.2 / 1.17 2.26 / 2.2 0.96 / 1.0
108 Moses Moody SG Golden State Warriors 49 4.7 5.91 / 5.8 1.65 / 1.58 1.09 / 1.11 1.56 / 1.46
109 Neemias Queta C Boston Celtics 74 4.7 3.94 / 4.03 3.18 / 3.27 1.1 / 1.14 0.05 / 0.02
110 Immanuel Quickley PG Toronto Raptors 64 4.5 5.57 / 5.66 1.58 / 1.66 2.26 / 2.24 1.27 / 1.32
111 Sam Hauser PF Boston Celtics 53 4.5 4.48 / 4.53 1.41 / 1.43 0.97 / 1.04 1.34 / 1.38
112 Tristan Da Silva SF Orlando Magic 34 4.5 4.83 / 5.33 2.21 / 1.99 1.23 / 1.15 1.0 / 1.08
113 Evan Mobley PF Cleveland Cavaliers 75 4.4 4.48 / 4.59 2.81 / 3.02 1.4 / 1.41 0.95 / 0.93
114 Johnny Furphy SG Indiana Pacers 21 4.4 3.89 / 3.33 2.3 / 2.56 0.84 / 1.01 0.83 / 0.71
115 Chet Holmgren C Oklahoma City Thunder 80 4.3 5.03 / 5.16 2.52 / 2.52 1.0 / 1.01 1.01 / 1.0
116 Jaden McDaniels PF Minnesota Timberwolves 79 4.3 5.31 / 5.43 1.85 / 1.86 1.17 / 1.19 1.17 / 1.07
117 Jarrett Allen C Cleveland Cavaliers 69 4.3 5.49 / 5.33 2.82 / 2.86 1.19 / 1.01 0.1 / 0.03
118 Jrue Holiday PG Portland Trail Blazers 50 4.3 6.0 / 6.2 1.89 / 1.84 2.61 / 2.57 1.62 / 1.71
119 Nikola Jokić C Denver Nuggets 65 4.2 6.69 / 6.82 3.18 / 3.29 3.09 / 3.0 1.16 / 1.18
120 Tobias Harris PF Detroit Pistons 71 4.1 5.52 / 5.6 1.93 / 1.95 1.46 / 1.43 1.14 / 1.05
121 Julius Randle PF Minnesota Timberwolves 85 3.9 6.39 / 6.22 2.15 / 2.19 2.12 / 2.17 1.1 / 0.98
122 Keyonte George PG Utah Jazz 48 3.9 7.77 / 8.21 1.73 / 1.63 2.04 / 1.93 1.6 / 1.66
123 Kris Dunn PG Los Angeles Clippers 68 3.9 3.85 / 3.68 1.75 / 1.75 1.84 / 1.77 0.91 / 0.88
124 RJ Barrett SF Toronto Raptors 58 3.9 4.52 / 4.52 1.71 / 1.84 1.36 / 1.3 1.06 / 1.12
125 Rui Hachimura PF Los Angeles Lakers 44 3.8 4.68 / 4.62 1.67 / 1.76 0.91 / 0.75 0.99 / 0.97
126 A.J. Green SG Milwaukee Bucks 62 3.7 5.48 / 5.37 1.48 / 1.46 1.25 / 1.3 1.75 / 1.71
127 Kel'el Ware C Miami Heat 29 3.7 5.37 / 5.5 3.23 / 3.14 0.83 / 0.63 1.01 / 1.03
128 Josh Okogie SG Houston Rockets 30 3.6 3.53 / 3.38 1.78 / 1.94 0.99 / 0.75 0.85 / 0.7
129 Ryan Rollins PG Milwaukee Bucks 62 3.6 5.54 / 5.56 2.06 / 2.08 1.98 / 2.03 1.25 / 1.32
130 Jakob Poeltl C Toronto Raptors 47 3.5 4.63 / 4.77 2.52 / 2.35 1.39 / 1.37 0.02 / 0.0
131 Quinten Post PF Golden State Warriors 32 3.5 4.2 / 4.21 2.78 / 2.51 1.17 / 1.25 1.15 / 1.18
132 Deni Avdija SF Portland Trail Blazers 65 3.4 5.79 / 5.98 2.13 / 2.22 2.52 / 2.67 1.09 / 0.97
133 Donte DiVincenzo SG Minnesota Timberwolves 80 3.4 5.02 / 5.03 1.69 / 1.71 1.74 / 1.72 1.37 / 1.45
134 Mark Williams C Phoenix Suns 52 3.4 5.16 / 5.08 2.8 / 2.69 0.99 / 0.83 0.1 / 0.04
135 Russell Westbrook PG Sacramento Kings 55 3.4 5.32 / 5.32 2.71 / 2.74 2.75 / 2.56 1.09 / 1.15
136 Harrison Barnes PF San Antonio Spurs 46 3.3 5.73 / 5.54 1.68 / 1.65 1.34 / 1.41 1.39 / 1.34
137 Julian Champagnie SF San Antonio Spurs 85 3.3 4.92 / 4.99 2.19 / 2.22 1.0 / 1.01 1.55 / 1.61
138 Naji Marshall SF Dallas Mavericks 47 3.3 5.9 / 6.05 2.09 / 2.06 1.7 / 1.77 0.89 / 0.8
139 Isaiah Hartenstein C Oklahoma City Thunder 54 3.2 3.82 / 3.82 3.08 / 3.08 1.73 / 1.81 0.03 / 0.0
140 Myles Turner C Milwaukee Bucks 65 3.2 5.09 / 4.97 2.34 / 2.32 1.0 / 1.02 1.07 / 1.17
141 Josh Hart SG New York Knicks 71 3.0 5.24 / 5.19 2.58 / 2.61 1.78 / 1.83 1.26 / 1.26
142 Karl-Anthony Towns C New York Knicks 88 3.0 5.59 / 5.67 3.03 / 3.07 1.73 / 1.63 1.03 / 1.08
143 Michael Porter Jr. SF Brooklyn Nets 46 3.0 6.32 / 6.15 2.88 / 2.96 1.68 / 1.54 1.79 / 1.72
144 Alex Sarr C Washington Wizards 42 2.9 5.88 / 6.02 3.21 / 3.01 1.52 / 1.43 0.8 / 0.86
145 Duncan Robinson SF Detroit Pistons 82 2.9 4.15 / 4.18 1.3 / 1.36 1.14 / 1.14 1.25 / 1.3
146 Jalen Suggs PG Orlando Magic 58 2.9 4.93 / 4.89 1.77 / 1.65 2.02 / 2.1 1.15 / 1.13
147 Wendell Carter Jr. C Orlando Magic 78 2.9 4.48 / 4.5 2.28 / 2.32 1.09 / 1.04 0.78 / 0.74
148 Andrew Wiggins SF Miami Heat 61 2.8 4.74 / 4.81 1.99 / 1.96 1.3 / 1.31 1.08 / 1.09
149 Derrick Jones Jr. SF Los Angeles Clippers 39 2.8 4.51 / 4.46 1.63 / 1.62 1.11 / 1.11 1.05 / 0.99
150 Dyson Daniels SG Atlanta Hawks 76 2.7 4.76 / 4.61 2.22 / 2.24 2.34 / 2.47 0.51 / 0.41
151 Jalen Duren C Detroit Pistons 78 2.7 5.16 / 5.13 3.24 / 3.37 1.23 / 1.23 0.05 / 0.0
152 Matas Buzelis SF Chicago Bulls 71 2.7 5.07 / 5.25 2.03 / 2.04 1.29 / 1.26 1.09 / 1.11
153 Coby White SG Chicago Bulls 26 2.5 5.29 / 5.33 1.89 / 1.93 1.94 / 1.91 1.61 / 1.6
154 Jalen Johnson SF Atlanta Hawks 73 2.5 6.37 / 6.45 2.71 / 2.65 2.29 / 2.32 1.1 / 1.15
155 Norman Powell SG Miami Heat 48 2.5 5.01 / 5.26 1.58 / 1.62 1.49 / 1.35 1.59 / 1.61
156 Brandin Podziemski SG Golden State Warriors 39 2.4 5.12 / 5.08 2.17 / 2.1 2.12 / 2.09 1.11 / 1.13
157 Desmond Bane SG Orlando Magic 82 2.4 6.21 / 6.4 1.74 / 1.71 1.6 / 1.63 1.23 / 1.29
158 Aaron Nesmith SF Indiana Pacers 36 2.3 5.57 / 5.49 2.05 / 2.03 1.38 / 1.39 1.31 / 1.31
159 Cam Spencer SG Memphis Grizzlies 20 2.3 5.23 / 5.05 1.61 / 1.59 3.35 / 3.3 1.29 / 1.36
160 Jeremiah Fears PG New Orleans Pelicans 45 2.3 5.7 / 5.5 1.42 / 1.5 1.56 / 1.34 1.04 / 0.9
161 Jusuf Nurkić C Utah Jazz 35 2.1 4.43 / 4.23 2.82 / 3.02 2.35 / 2.56 0.73 / 0.62
162 Olivier-Maxence Prosper PF Memphis Grizzlies 24 2.1 5.04 / 5.42 2.56 / 2.17 0.94 / 0.85 0.98 / 1.08
163 Payton Pritchard PG Boston Celtics 43 2.1 7.47 / 7.68 1.34 / 1.24 1.81 / 1.95 1.49 / 1.55
164 Cedric Coward SG Memphis Grizzlies 47 2.0 4.62 / 4.48 2.86 / 2.89 1.46 / 1.42 1.15 / 1.13
165 John Collins PF Los Angeles Clippers 56 2.0 4.78 / 4.62 2.31 / 2.36 1.09 / 0.92 1.08 / 1.07
166 Bilal Coulibaly SF Washington Wizards 54 1.9 4.72 / 4.56 1.82 / 1.78 1.34 / 1.3 1.11 / 1.05
167 Derrick White SG Boston Celtics 77 1.9 6.05 / 5.87 1.74 / 1.69 1.84 / 1.85 1.45 / 1.48
168 Kon Knueppel SF Charlotte Hornets 74 1.9 5.56 / 5.61 2.13 / 2.17 1.59 / 1.6 1.45 / 1.46
169 Mikal Bridges SF New York Knicks 95 1.9 5.0 / 5.06 1.77 / 1.75 1.53 / 1.65 1.16 / 1.15
170 Tari Eason PF Houston Rockets 37 1.8 4.75 / 4.26 2.44 / 2.58 1.15 / 1.14 1.05 / 0.94
171 Terance Mann SG Brooklyn Nets 45 1.8 3.74 / 3.34 1.49 / 1.5 1.73 / 1.72 0.86 / 0.74
172 Nickeil Alexander-Walker SG Atlanta Hawks 74 1.7 5.32 / 5.54 1.68 / 1.66 1.6 / 1.66 1.37 / 1.41
173 Svi Mykhailiuk SF Utah Jazz 35 1.6 4.12 / 4.08 1.2 / 1.24 1.14 / 1.23 1.06 / 1.03
174 Devin Vassell SG San Antonio Spurs 82 1.5 4.6 / 4.6 1.68 / 1.71 1.11 / 1.13 1.34 / 1.33
175 Royce O'Neale SF Phoenix Suns 63 1.5 3.71 / 3.76 1.68 / 1.65 1.35 / 1.42 1.26 / 1.33
176 Devin Booker SG Phoenix Suns 61 1.4 6.0 / 6.18 1.88 / 1.85 2.07 / 2.23 1.18 / 1.11
177 Draymond Green PF Golden State Warriors 61 1.4 4.84 / 4.39 1.9 / 1.89 2.3 / 2.29 1.19 / 1.22
178 Jimmy Butler SF Golden State Warriors 31 1.3 5.43 / 5.15 1.88 / 1.97 1.83 / 2.05 0.92 / 0.85
179 De'Andre Hunter SF Sacramento Kings 21 1.1 5.55 / 5.61 1.47 / 1.24 1.69 / 1.4 1.47 / 1.41
180 Jalen Smith C Chicago Bulls 21 1.1 2.95 / 3.31 2.74 / 2.73 1.01 / 0.93 0.89 / 0.93
181 Jaylen Wells SG Memphis Grizzlies 63 1.0 4.8 / 4.45 1.42 / 1.42 1.14 / 1.1 1.04 / 1.05
182 Bam Adebayo C Miami Heat 66 0.9 6.22 / 6.12 2.67 / 2.71 1.55 / 1.63 1.25 / 1.24
183 Aaron Gordon PF Denver Nuggets 30 0.8 6.16 / 5.68 2.25 / 2.16 1.53 / 1.51 1.09 / 1.05
184 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander PG Oklahoma City Thunder 76 0.7 5.85 / 6.22 1.79 / 1.72 2.23 / 2.14 0.92 / 0.88
185 Trey Murphy III SF New Orleans Pelicans 60 0.7 6.09 / 6.16 2.11 / 2.13 1.53 / 1.51 1.49 / 1.49
186 Josh Giddey PG Chicago Bulls 45 0.5 5.99 / 5.56 2.89 / 2.94 3.06 / 2.98 1.25 / 1.26
187 Franz Wagner SF Orlando Magic 29 0.4 4.65 / 4.8 1.75 / 1.73 1.55 / 1.36 1.3 / 1.19
188 Kevin Durant PF Houston Rockets 73 0.4 5.77 / 5.86 1.82 / 1.84 2.07 / 2.14 1.14 / 1.18
189 Luke Kornet C San Antonio Spurs 26 0.4 4.46 / 4.16 2.06 / 1.92 1.3 / 1.28 0.07 / 0.04
190 Shaedon Sharpe SG Portland Trail Blazers 36 0.2 5.36 / 5.54 1.81 / 1.82 1.47 / 1.19 1.44 / 1.38
191 Kawhi Leonard SF Los Angeles Clippers 59 0.1 5.24 / 5.67 2.2 / 2.13 1.33 / 1.32 1.35 / 1.46
192 LaMelo Ball PG Charlotte Hornets 63 0.1 5.43 / 5.25 1.92 / 1.88 2.11 / 2.15 1.61 / 1.57
193 Bub Carrington PG Washington Wizards 44 0.0 4.26 / 4.63 1.44 / 1.4 1.77 / 1.91 1.31 / 1.36
194 Pascal Siakam PF Indiana Pacers 56 -0.0 5.16 / 5.3 2.06 / 1.99 1.72 / 1.67 1.27 / 1.3
195 Ayo Dosunmu SG Minnesota Timberwolves 23 -0.1 5.01 / 5.02 2.46 / 2.5 2.72 / 2.78 1.15 / 1.16
196 Stephon Castle PG San Antonio Spurs 84 -0.7 5.16 / 4.9 2.28 / 2.19 2.24 / 2.3 1.03 / 0.96
197 Jabari Smith Jr. PF Houston Rockets 78 -1.0 3.95 / 4.24 2.58 / 2.52 1.14 / 1.07 1.16 / 1.23
198 Christian Braun SG Denver Nuggets 44 -1.4 5.12 / 4.52 2.09 / 2.01 1.69 / 1.64 0.94 / 0.82
199 Amen Thompson SF Houston Rockets 79 -1.5 4.8 / 4.9 2.59 / 2.47 1.98 / 2.01 0.66 / 0.48
200 Jaylen Brown SF Boston Celtics 71 -1.5 5.62 / 5.66 2.42 / 2.38 2.05 / 1.98 1.02 / 1.02
201 Dominick Barlow SF Philadelphia 76ers 57 -2.1 3.95 / 3.82 2.71 / 2.58 1.27 / 1.09 0.57 / 0.46
202 Scottie Barnes PF Toronto Raptors 81 -2.5 4.89 / 4.62 2.7 / 2.6 2.45 / 2.42 0.89 / 0.88
203 Zion Williamson PF New Orleans Pelicans 50 -3.1 5.18 / 5.24 2.23 / 2.09 1.63 / 1.5 0.15 / 0.03
204 Ausar Thompson SF Detroit Pistons 80 -3.4 3.75 / 3.23 2.05 / 2.08 1.7 / 1.65 0.28 / 0.14
205 Grayson Allen SG Phoenix Suns 20 -3.5 5.89 / 5.26 1.52 / 1.42 1.55 / 1.54 1.83 / 1.72
206 Nic Claxton C Brooklyn Nets 62 -4.0 3.79 / 3.48 2.31 / 2.27 1.95 / 2.09 0.12 / 0.09
207 Ryan Kalkbrenner C Charlotte Hornets 24 -5.6 3.27 / 2.66 2.29 / 2.22 0.96 / 0.92 0.03 / 0.0

Starts = games started (projections assume the starting five, so only those games count). MAE = mean absolute error per game, lower is better; the grey number is the naive rolling-average baseline on the same games. Tap any column header to sort.

How the score works

A high score does not mean a better player, it means a player whose production our models can call game by game. For fantasy that is the difference between a floor you can bank on and a coin flip. The score compares two forecasters on the games a player started: our model, which publishes a full probability distribution for his points and rebounds before tip-off, and a naive one that just averages his season and last-5 numbers. We measure both with CRPS, a standard score for probabilistic forecasts, and report how much better the model is, in percent. Positive means the model reads that player better than the rolling average; around zero means his games are hard to call for anyone. The full write-up, including why assists and threes are shown but kept out of the score, is in how the predictability score works.

Click any player for his game-by-game predicted vs actual profile with probability bands. Today's projections live on the NBA player projections page; how the models work is on the methodology page.