Football Club Profiles
ELO rating trajectories, Monte Carlo season forecasts and model predictability for 248 clubs across 12 European leagues.
| Club | League | ELO ▾ | ELO pos | Predictability | Winner acc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roma | Serie A | 1558 | #1 | On script | 75.0% (32) |
| Inter | Serie A | 1552 | #2 | On script | 78.1% (32) |
| Juventus | Serie A | 1545 | #3 | In line | 50.0% (32) |
| Milan | Serie A | 1544 | #4 | Chaos club | 46.9% (32) |
| Lazio | Serie A | 1542 | #5 | Chaos club | 46.9% (32) |
| Como | Serie A | 1534 | #6 | In line | 62.5% (32) |
| Atalanta | Serie A | 1532 | #7 | Chaos club | 40.6% (32) |
| Udinese | Serie A | 1525 | #8 | Chaos club | 31.2% (32) |
| Frosinone | Serie A | 1506 | #9 | - | - |
| Napoli | Serie A | 1501 | #10 | In line | 56.2% (32) |
| Cagliari | Serie A | 1499 | #11 | In line | 43.8% (32) |
| Sassuolo | Serie A | 1499 | #12 | Chaos club | 46.9% (32) |
| Lecce | Serie A | 1498 | #13 | On script | 56.2% (32) |
| Bologna | Serie A | 1456 | #14 | Chaos club | 56.2% (32) |
| Parma | Serie A | 1455 | #15 | Chaos club | 37.5% (32) |
| Torino | Serie A | 1454 | #16 | In line | 56.2% (32) |
| Genoa | Serie A | 1454 | #17 | In line | 53.1% (32) |
| Venezia | Serie A | 1452 | #18 | - | - |
| Monza | Serie A | 1451 | #19 | - | - |
| Fiorentina | Serie A | 1442 | #20 | Chaos club | 40.6% (32) |
| Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | 1523 | #1 | On script | 78.6% (28) |
| RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | 1522 | #2 | On script | 71.4% (28) |
| Freiburg | Bundesliga | 1522 | #3 | On script | 60.7% (28) |
| Augsburg | Bundesliga | 1522 | #4 | Chaos club | 53.6% (28) |
| Dortmund | Bundesliga | 1520 | #5 | On script | 60.7% (28) |
| Elversberg | Bundesliga | 1518 | #6 | - | - |
| FC Köln | Bundesliga | 1518 | #7 | In line | 50.0% (28) |
| Paderborn | Bundesliga | 1502 | #8 | - | - |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | 1502 | #9 | In line | 53.6% (28) |
| Mainz | Bundesliga | 1498 | #10 | Chaos club | 46.4% (28) |
| Union Berlin | Bundesliga | 1498 | #11 | Chaos club | 32.1% (28) |
| Leverkusen | Bundesliga | 1482 | #12 | In line | 57.1% (28) |
| Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | 1482 | #13 | In line | 60.7% (28) |
| Hamburg | Bundesliga | 1480 | #14 | In line | 53.6% (28) |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | 1478 | #15 | In line | 53.6% (28) |
| Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | 1478 | #16 | In line | 57.1% (28) |
| Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | 1478 | #17 | - | - |
| Stuttgart | Bundesliga | 1477 | #18 | On script | 60.7% (28) |
| Manchester City | Premier League | 1549 | #1 | On script | 64.5% (31) |
| Arsenal | Premier League | 1547 | #2 | On script | 71.9% (32) |
| Chelsea | Premier League | 1546 | #3 | Chaos club | 38.7% (31) |
| Hull | Premier League | 1546 | #4 | - | - |
| Newcastle | Premier League | 1529 | #5 | In line | 53.1% (32) |
| Leeds | Premier League | 1527 | #6 | Chaos club | 31.2% (32) |
| Brentford | Premier League | 1524 | #7 | In line | 46.9% (32) |
| Everton | Premier League | 1521 | #8 | In line | 37.5% (32) |
| Manchester United | Premier League | 1506 | #9 | Chaos club | 40.6% (32) |
| Brighton | Premier League | 1506 | #10 | In line | 43.8% (32) |
| Sunderland | Premier League | 1499 | #11 | Chaos club | 34.4% (32) |
| Liverpool | Premier League | 1499 | #12 | In line | 53.1% (32) |
| Ipswich | Premier League | 1492 | #13 | - | - |
| Bournemouth | Premier League | 1481 | #14 | Chaos club | 25.8% (31) |
| Nottingham Forest | Premier League | 1474 | #15 | In line | 43.8% (32) |
| Fulham | Premier League | 1454 | #16 | On script | 62.5% (32) |
| Coventry | Premier League | 1453 | #17 | - | - |
| Aston Villa | Premier League | 1452 | #18 | In line | 46.9% (32) |
| Crystal Palace | Premier League | 1448 | #19 | In line | 46.9% (32) |
| Tottenham | Premier League | 1447 | #20 | Chaos club | 38.7% (31) |
| Barcelona | La Liga | 1565 | #1 | On script | 84.4% (32) |
| Real Madrid | La Liga | 1564 | #2 | In line | 68.8% (32) |
| Atlético Madrid | La Liga | 1554 | #3 | On script | 68.8% (32) |
| Osasuna | La Liga | 1542 | #4 | In line | 53.1% (32) |
| Alaves | La Liga | 1539 | #5 | Chaos club | 37.5% (32) |
| La Coruna | La Liga | 1517 | #6 | - | - |
| Real Betis | La Liga | 1516 | #7 | In line | 51.6% (31) |
| Sevilla | La Liga | 1513 | #8 | In line | 53.1% (32) |
| Levante | La Liga | 1510 | #9 | On script | 59.4% (32) |
| Santander | La Liga | 1495 | #10 | - | - |
| Athletic Bilbao | La Liga | 1489 | #11 | In line | 50.0% (32) |
| Villarreal | La Liga | 1489 | #12 | On script | 59.4% (32) |
| Getafe | La Liga | 1482 | #13 | In line | 43.8% (32) |
| Real Sociedad | La Liga | 1481 | #14 | Chaos club | 40.6% (32) |
| Espanyol | La Liga | 1471 | #15 | In line | 43.8% (32) |
| Rayo Vallecano | La Liga | 1466 | #16 | Chaos club | 43.8% (32) |
| Malaga | La Liga | 1462 | #17 | - | - |
| Valencia | La Liga | 1453 | #18 | In line | 40.6% (32) |
| Elche | La Liga | 1451 | #19 | In line | 53.1% (32) |
| Celta Vigo | La Liga | 1442 | #20 | Chaos club | 41.9% (31) |
| Lille | Ligue 1 | 1553 | #1 | In line | 44.0% (25) |
| Monaco | Ligue 1 | 1549 | #2 | Chaos club | 36.0% (25) |
| Lyon | Ligue 1 | 1528 | #3 | In line | 56.0% (25) |
| Troyes | Ligue 1 | 1527 | #4 | - | - |
| Paris FC | Ligue 1 | 1524 | #5 | - | 33.3% (12) |
| Rennes | Ligue 1 | 1516 | #6 | Chaos club | 38.5% (26) |
| Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | 1506 | #7 | On script | 68.0% (25) |
| Marseille | Ligue 1 | 1503 | #8 | In line | 56.0% (25) |
| Angers | Ligue 1 | 1501 | #9 | On script | 56.0% (25) |
| Lens | Ligue 1 | 1500 | #10 | On script | 60.0% (25) |
| Brest | Ligue 1 | 1499 | #11 | In line | 50.0% (24) |
| Strasbourg | Ligue 1 | 1499 | #12 | In line | 41.7% (24) |
| Le Mans | Ligue 1 | 1480 | #13 | - | - |
| Nice | Ligue 1 | 1476 | #14 | Chaos club | 32.0% (25) |
| Le Havre | Ligue 1 | 1476 | #15 | In line | 40.0% (25) |
| Lorient | Ligue 1 | 1473 | #16 | Chaos club | 24.0% (25) |
| Toulouse | Ligue 1 | 1447 | #17 | In line | 42.3% (26) |
| Auxerre | Ligue 1 | 1444 | #18 | On script | 52.0% (25) |
| Burnley | Championship | 1648 | #1 | - | - |
| Southampton | Championship | 1647 | #2 | In line | 51.2% (41) |
| Wolves | Championship | 1619 | #3 | - | - |
| West Ham | Championship | 1600 | #4 | - | - |
| Swansea | Championship | 1598 | #5 | In line | 63.4% (41) |
| Millwall | Championship | 1571 | #6 | In line | 43.9% (41) |
| Middlesbrough | Championship | 1558 | #7 | In line | 39.0% (41) |
| Birmingham | Championship | 1543 | #8 | In line | 53.7% (41) |
| Wrexham | Championship | 1541 | #9 | In line | 34.2% (41) |
| West Brom | Championship | 1528 | #10 | In line | 51.2% (41) |
| Norwich | Championship | 1522 | #11 | In line | 56.1% (41) |
| QPR | Championship | 1519 | #12 | In line | 39.0% (41) |
| Charlton | Championship | 1516 | #13 | In line | 43.9% (41) |
| Sheffield United | Championship | 1509 | #14 | In line | 41.5% (41) |
| Bristol City | Championship | 1506 | #15 | In line | 41.5% (41) |
| Derby | Championship | 1501 | #16 | In line | 48.8% (41) |
| Blackburn | Championship | 1487 | #17 | Chaos club | 29.3% (41) |
| Lincoln | Championship | 1469 | #18 | - | - |
| Portsmouth | Championship | 1453 | #19 | In line | 41.5% (41) |
| Watford | Championship | 1452 | #20 | In line | 41.5% (41) |
| Cardiff | Championship | 1409 | #21 | - | - |
| Stoke | Championship | 1403 | #22 | In line | 41.5% (41) |
| Preston | Championship | 1373 | #23 | In line | 43.9% (41) |
| Bolton | Championship | 1321 | #24 | - | - |
| Sheffield Wednesday | League One | 1644 | #1 | - | - |
| Leicester | League One | 1617 | #2 | - | - |
| Luton | League One | 1585 | #3 | In line | 42.5% (40) |
| Huddersfield | League One | 1562 | #4 | In line | 48.8% (41) |
| Oxford | League One | 1549 | #5 | - | - |
| Plymouth | League One | 1549 | #6 | In line | 41.5% (41) |
| Blackpool | League One | 1537 | #7 | In line | 53.7% (41) |
| Mansfield | League One | 1536 | #8 | Chaos club | 29.3% (41) |
| Stockport | League One | 1526 | #9 | In line | 43.9% (41) |
| Stevenage | League One | 1508 | #10 | In line | 53.7% (41) |
| Bradford | League One | 1498 | #11 | In line | 48.8% (41) |
| Burton | League One | 1491 | #12 | Chaos club | 31.7% (41) |
| Reading | League One | 1482 | #13 | In line | 39.0% (41) |
| Barnsley | League One | 1477 | #14 | In line | 43.9% (41) |
| Doncaster | League One | 1473 | #15 | In line | 52.5% (40) |
| Bromley | League One | 1461 | #16 | - | - |
| Cambridge | League One | 1452 | #17 | - | - |
| Leyton Orient | League One | 1451 | #18 | In line | 43.9% (41) |
| Notts County | League One | 1445 | #19 | - | - |
| Wycombe | League One | 1442 | #20 | In line | 48.8% (41) |
| Milton Keynes Dons | League One | 1433 | #21 | - | - |
| Peterboro | League One | 1406 | #22 | In line | 53.7% (41) |
| Wigan | League One | 1405 | #23 | In line | 46.3% (41) |
| AFC Wimbledon | League One | 1378 | #24 | In line | 46.3% (41) |
| Barnet | League Two | 1630 | #1 | Chaos club | 36.6% (41) |
| Grimsby | League Two | 1596 | #2 | In line | 41.5% (41) |
| Bristol Rvs | League Two | 1590 | #3 | On script | 65.8% (41) |
| Rotherham | League Two | 1567 | #4 | - | - |
| Chesterfield | League Two | 1558 | #5 | Chaos club | 29.3% (41) |
| Exeter | League Two | 1557 | #6 | - | - |
| Northampton | League Two | 1546 | #7 | - | - |
| Crewe | League Two | 1533 | #8 | In line | 46.3% (41) |
| Oldham | League Two | 1531 | #9 | In line | 41.5% (41) |
| Fleetwood Town | League Two | 1524 | #10 | In line | 51.2% (41) |
| Salford | League Two | 1519 | #11 | In line | 56.1% (41) |
| Swindon | League Two | 1512 | #12 | In line | 58.5% (41) |
| Colchester | League Two | 1511 | #13 | In line | 43.9% (41) |
| Port Vale | League Two | 1499 | #14 | - | - |
| Walsall | League Two | 1487 | #15 | In line | 39.0% (41) |
| Cheltenham | League Two | 1481 | #16 | In line | 43.9% (41) |
| York | League Two | 1449 | #17 | - | - |
| Newport County | League Two | 1436 | #18 | In line | 58.5% (41) |
| Crawley Town | League Two | 1418 | #19 | In line | 51.2% (41) |
| Tranmere | League Two | 1411 | #20 | In line | 53.7% (41) |
| Rochdale | League Two | 1406 | #21 | - | - |
| Shrewsbury | League Two | 1403 | #22 | In line | 47.5% (40) |
| Gillingham | League Two | 1402 | #23 | In line | 53.7% (41) |
| Accrington | League Two | 1386 | #24 | In line | 56.1% (41) |
| Castellon | Segunda División | 1628 | #1 | In line | 51.3% (37) |
| Las Palmas | Segunda División | 1613 | #2 | In line | 51.3% (37) |
| Mallorca | Segunda División | 1590 | #3 | - | - |
| Burgos | Segunda División | 1589 | #4 | In line | 46.0% (37) |
| Real Oviedo | Segunda División | 1583 | #5 | - | - |
| Sp Gijon | Segunda División | 1578 | #6 | In line | 51.3% (37) |
| Eibar | Segunda División | 1567 | #7 | In line | 54.0% (37) |
| Girona | Segunda División | 1562 | #8 | - | - |
| Sabadell | Segunda División | 1536 | #9 | - | - |
| Granada | Segunda División | 1528 | #10 | In line | 48.6% (37) |
| Almeria | Segunda División | 1522 | #11 | On script | 59.5% (37) |
| Celta B | Segunda División | 1501 | #12 | - | - |
| Leganes | Segunda División | 1500 | #13 | In line | 40.5% (37) |
| Real Sociedad | Segunda División | 1500 | #14 | - | - |
| Celta Vigo | Segunda División | 1500 | #15 | - | - |
| Cordoba | Segunda División | 1491 | #16 | In line | 48.6% (37) |
| Andorra | Segunda División | 1491 | #17 | In line | 48.6% (37) |
| Tenerife | Segunda División | 1486 | #18 | - | - |
| Ceuta | Segunda División | 1483 | #19 | In line | 54.0% (37) |
| Albacete | Segunda División | 1482 | #20 | In line | 37.8% (37) |
| Sociedad B | Segunda División | 1482 | #21 | In line | 51.3% (37) |
| Valladolid | Segunda División | 1414 | #22 | In line | 43.2% (37) |
| Eldense | Segunda División | 1408 | #23 | - | - |
| Cadiz | Segunda División | 1388 | #24 | In line | 51.3% (37) |
| Reims | Ligue 2 | 1636 | #1 | In line | 48.3% (29) |
| Metz | Ligue 2 | 1629 | #2 | - | - |
| Rodez | Ligue 2 | 1624 | #3 | Chaos club | 17.2% (29) |
| Saint-Étienne | Ligue 2 | 1609 | #4 | In line | 51.7% (29) |
| Annecy | Ligue 2 | 1581 | #5 | In line | 44.8% (29) |
| Montpellier | Ligue 2 | 1562 | #6 | In line | 44.8% (29) |
| Red Star | Ligue 2 | 1528 | #7 | In line | 42.9% (28) |
| Grenoble | Ligue 2 | 1502 | #8 | In line | 34.5% (29) |
| Nancy | Ligue 2 | 1484 | #9 | In line | 34.5% (29) |
| Laval | Ligue 2 | 1450 | #10 | In line | 44.8% (29) |
| Clermont | Ligue 2 | 1449 | #11 | In line | 41.4% (29) |
| Pau FC | Ligue 2 | 1443 | #12 | In line | 37.9% (29) |
| Dunkerque | Ligue 2 | 1442 | #13 | In line | 41.4% (29) |
| Dijon | Ligue 2 | 1439 | #14 | - | - |
| Nantes | Ligue 2 | 1438 | #15 | - | - |
| Boulogne | Ligue 2 | 1426 | #16 | In line | 34.5% (29) |
| Sochaux | Ligue 2 | 1422 | #17 | - | - |
| Guingamp | Ligue 2 | 1412 | #18 | In line | 31.0% (29) |
| Heidenheim | 2. Bundesliga | 1609 | #1 | - | - |
| Nurnberg | 2. Bundesliga | 1600 | #2 | In line | 37.9% (29) |
| Hertha | 2. Bundesliga | 1589 | #3 | In line | 48.3% (29) |
| St Pauli | 2. Bundesliga | 1567 | #4 | - | - |
| Wolfsburg | 2. Bundesliga | 1565 | #5 | - | - |
| Hannover | 2. Bundesliga | 1556 | #6 | Chaos club | 34.5% (29) |
| Kaiserslautern | 2. Bundesliga | 1551 | #7 | In line | 51.7% (29) |
| Magdeburg | 2. Bundesliga | 1515 | #8 | In line | 58.6% (29) |
| Greuther Furth | 2. Bundesliga | 1493 | #9 | In line | 55.2% (29) |
| Dresden | 2. Bundesliga | 1493 | #10 | In line | 51.7% (29) |
| Bochum | 2. Bundesliga | 1483 | #11 | In line | 44.8% (29) |
| Holstein Kiel | 2. Bundesliga | 1481 | #12 | In line | 41.4% (29) |
| Bielefeld | 2. Bundesliga | 1481 | #13 | In line | 31.0% (29) |
| Karlsruhe | 2. Bundesliga | 1471 | #14 | In line | 58.6% (29) |
| Cottbus | 2. Bundesliga | 1468 | #15 | - | - |
| Braunschweig | 2. Bundesliga | 1458 | #16 | In line | 48.3% (29) |
| Darmstadt | 2. Bundesliga | 1436 | #17 | In line | 41.4% (29) |
| Osnabruck | 2. Bundesliga | 1429 | #18 | - | - |
| Palermo | Serie B | 1638 | #1 | On script | 60.6% (33) |
| Pisa | Serie B | 1570 | #2 | - | - |
| Mantova | Serie B | 1559 | #3 | In line | 51.5% (33) |
| Modena | Serie B | 1544 | #4 | In line | 33.3% (33) |
| Cremonese | Serie B | 1520 | #5 | - | - |
| Juve Stabia | Serie B | 1518 | #6 | In line | 51.5% (33) |
| Padova | Serie B | 1514 | #7 | In line | 51.5% (33) |
| Ascoli | Serie B | 1508 | #8 | - | - |
| Arezzo | Serie B | 1508 | #9 | - | - |
| Avellino | Serie B | 1498 | #10 | In line | 42.4% (33) |
| Vicenza | Serie B | 1496 | #11 | - | - |
| Catanzaro | Serie B | 1491 | #12 | In line | 51.5% (33) |
| Empoli | Serie B | 1475 | #13 | In line | 42.4% (33) |
| Verona | Serie B | 1460 | #14 | - | - |
| Cesena | Serie B | 1450 | #15 | In line | 42.4% (33) |
| Sudtirol | Serie B | 1446 | #16 | Chaos club | 30.3% (33) |
| Sampdoria | Serie B | 1442 | #17 | In line | 51.5% (33) |
| Carrarese | Serie B | 1438 | #18 | In line | 60.6% (33) |
| Virtus Entella | Serie B | 1408 | #19 | In line | 45.5% (33) |
| Benevento | Serie B | 1392 | #20 | - | - |
ELO and league position come from the latest computed matchday. The predictability tier grades how easy a club's results are to forecast: we score every as-published match prediction like a weather forecast (confident and right earns the best grade, confident and wrong the worst) and compare the club's season average with its league's. "On script" clubs beat the league average clearly, "Chaos clubs" defy it. The tier needs at least 15 predicted matches. Winner accuracy is the share of predicted matches called correctly (sample in brackets). Full methodology.