Latest Segunda División AI Predictions: Results, Goals & Ascenso Odds

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Last updated: 2026-10-09

Game #1

Almeria

HOME
VS

Leganes

AWAY

Match Result Probability

Almeria
74.2%
Draw
16.8%
Leganes
9.1%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5
43.3%
Under 2.5
56.7%

Goal/No Goal

Goal
50.2%
No Goal
49.8%

Predicted Result

Home Under 2.5 Goal

Game #2

Mallorca

HOME
VS

Las Palmas

AWAY

Match Result Probability

Mallorca
56.0%
Draw
27.0%
Las Palmas
17.0%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5
46.3%
Under 2.5
53.7%

Goal/No Goal

Goal
52.4%
No Goal
47.6%

Predicted Result

Home Under 2.5 Goal

Game #3

Valladolid

HOME
VS

Albacete

AWAY

Match Result Probability

Valladolid
52.6%
Draw
26.9%
Albacete
20.5%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5
42.9%
Under 2.5
57.1%

Goal/No Goal

Goal
48.2%
No Goal
51.8%

Predicted Result

Home Under 2.5 No Goal

Game #4

Celta B

HOME
VS

Sociedad B

AWAY

Match Result Probability

Celta B
42.8%
Draw
30.2%
Sociedad B
27.0%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5
51.2%
Under 2.5
48.8%

Goal/No Goal

Goal
56.1%
No Goal
43.9%

Predicted Result

Home Over 2.5 Goal

Game #5

Oviedo

HOME
VS

Eibar

AWAY

Match Result Probability

Oviedo
40.3%
Draw
30.8%
Eibar
28.9%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5
44.3%
Under 2.5
55.7%

Goal/No Goal

Goal
54.6%
No Goal
45.4%

Predicted Result

Home Under 2.5 Goal

Game #6

Burgos

HOME
VS

Granada

AWAY

Match Result Probability

Burgos
39.8%
Draw
30.3%
Granada
30.0%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5
45.8%
Under 2.5
54.2%

Goal/No Goal

Goal
56.1%
No Goal
43.9%

Predicted Result

Home Under 2.5 Goal

Game #7

Eldense

HOME
VS

Cordoba

AWAY

Match Result Probability

Eldense
37.8%
Draw
31.2%
Cordoba
31.0%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5
52.3%
Under 2.5
47.7%

Goal/No Goal

Goal
58.4%
No Goal
41.6%

Predicted Result

Home Over 2.5 Goal

Game #8

Ceuta

HOME
VS

Sabadell

AWAY

Match Result Probability

Ceuta
36.1%
Draw
31.1%
Sabadell
32.8%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5
45.8%
Under 2.5
54.2%

Goal/No Goal

Goal
53.0%
No Goal
47.0%

Predicted Result

Home Under 2.5 Goal

Game #9

Cadiz

HOME
VS

Sp Gijon

AWAY

Match Result Probability

Cadiz
33.7%
Draw
30.6%
Sp Gijon
35.7%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5
47.8%
Under 2.5
52.2%

Goal/No Goal

Goal
51.9%
No Goal
48.1%

Predicted Result

Away Under 2.5 Goal

Game #10

Tenerife

HOME
VS

Girona

AWAY

Match Result Probability

Tenerife
32.5%
Draw
30.5%
Girona
37.0%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5
40.7%
Under 2.5
59.3%

Goal/No Goal

Goal
48.7%
No Goal
51.3%

Predicted Result

Away Under 2.5 No Goal

Game #11

Andorra

HOME
VS

Castellon

AWAY

Match Result Probability

Andorra
27.2%
Draw
28.2%
Castellon
44.6%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5
49.2%
Under 2.5
50.8%

Goal/No Goal

Goal
54.7%
No Goal
45.3%

Predicted Result

Away Under 2.5 Goal

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What's Inside Each Match Analysis

Click on any match card above to access our in-depth match analysis pages. Each page provides insights you won't find elsewhere:

AI-Generated Match Preview

Data-driven match analysis with prediction summary, team form assessment, and key tactical insights.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Analysis

Detailed probability breakdown for goals predictions based on team scoring patterns and defensive records.

Shots Predictions

Expected shots derived from neural network probability distributions, not simple averages.

Corners Predictions

Neural network-based corner kick predictions with probability context for more informed analysis.

Goal Spread Predictions

Expected goal difference (home - away) with full probability distributions for handicap analysis.

AI-Powered Segunda División Predictions

The Segunda División — Spain's LaLiga 2 — is a 22-club, 42-round competition famous for its slow-burn tension and its distinctive promotion path: two clubs go up automatically while a further place is settled by a two-legged playoff final among the chasing pack. Tactically disciplined and low-scoring by reputation, it rewards models that read defensive strength as much as attacking output. Our coverage of the division runs from 2017-18 onward.

Our proprietary neural network models are trained on 9 seasons of Segunda División data and leverage approximately 600 features including rolling team-form indices, Elo & Glicko-2 rating dynamics, shots, corners and discipline metrics, quality-of-result indicators from closed matches.

Match Winner (1X2)
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Corners
Shots
Goal Spread

What sets us apart: Unlike competitors who provide simple averages for shots and corners, our neural network models generate expected values derived from probability distributions. This means our predictions capture the full range of likely outcomes, providing deeper analytical insight than basic statistical averages.

Our models incorporate recent team form, home/away performance differentials, Elo and Glicko-2 rating dynamics, quality-of-result indicators and match-level metrics such as shots made and conceded, corners and fouls to deliver comprehensive match predictions.

Historical Segunda División KPIs

Explore how key Segunda División metrics have evolved over the last 9 seasons. These trends inform our AI models and provide context for current predictions.

45%
Home Wins %
25%
Away Wins %
30%
Draws %
41%
Over 2.5 Goals %
48%
Both Teams Score %
2.3
Avg Goals per Match
23.1
Avg Shots per Match
9.3
Avg Corners per Match

Match Results Trend

Segunda División match results trend chart showing home wins, away wins, and draws percentages across seasons

Goals & Over 2.5 Trend

Segunda División goals trend chart showing average goals scored and over 2.5 percentage across seasons

Match Metrics Trend

Segunda División match metrics chart showing average shots and corners per match across seasons

Segunda División Power Rankings

Two rating models, one table. ELO measures accumulated season strength. Glicko-2 adds a confidence layer, flagging teams whose form is inconsistent. The Rank Δ column shows where both systems disagree most. Updated after every matchday.

Cross-League Prediction Hub

Compare predictions across all twelve leagues in one view. Sort matches by over/under 2.5 probability, goal spread, corners, or draw likelihood.

Prediction Transparency

We believe in full transparency. All our historical predictions and their outcomes are publicly available. Track our prediction accuracy and model performance over time:

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Download Segunda División Probability Data

Every match analysis includes downloadable probability distributions in JSON and CSV format. Access full PDFs, CDFs, and match prediction data for your own analysis.

Open any match analysis above and download structured data with a free account.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Two clubs earn automatic promotion (ascenso) and a third comes through a two-legged playoff among the sides finishing roughly 3rd to 6th. Our Monte Carlo engine simulates both routes — the Segunda División title simulations page shows each club's promotion probability.

Spanish second-tier matches tend to be tight and defensively organised. Our under/over 2.5 goals model is trained on the division's own scoring patterns, so its goal probabilities reflect Segunda reality rather than a generic football baseline.

Twenty-two clubs each play 42 league matches. The bottom four are relegated to Primera Federación, making both ends of the table fiercely contested.

The models draw on Spanish second-tier match data from 2017-18 onward, learning each club's result, goals, corners and shots tendencies and translating them into calibrated probabilities.

Yes. A Poisson goal-spread model outputs the full distribution of home-minus-away goals, letting you read the probability of any handicap line. Learn how to read these charts.

Our Elo and Glicko-2 ratings persist across seasons and divisions, so a club promoted from below or dropping from LaLiga is placed on the same scale as long-standing second-tier sides.

Predictions are generated a few days before each round and refreshed as results and form data change through the season.