Ligue 1 2025-2026: Metz vs Auxerre Prediction - 15 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Metz

Home Team
22%
VS

Auxerre

Away Team
60%
Draw: 18%
Over 2.5: 42%
Under 2.5: 58%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 22.4

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 21 16 3 2 48 16 32 51
2 Lens 21 16 1 4 37 17 20 49
3 Lyon 21 13 3 5 34 20 14 42
4 Marseille 21 12 3 6 46 27 19 39
5 Lille 21 10 3 8 34 30 4 33
6 Rennes 21 8 7 6 31 34 -3 31
7 Strasbourg 21 9 3 9 34 27 7 30
8 Toulouse 21 8 6 7 31 24 7 30
9 Angers 21 8 5 8 22 25 -3 29
10 Monaco 21 8 4 9 32 33 -1 28
11 Lorient 21 7 7 7 27 33 -6 28
12 Brest 21 7 5 9 28 33 -5 26
13 Le Havre 21 5 8 8 18 26 -8 23
14 Nice 21 6 5 10 27 38 -11 23
15 Paris FC 21 5 7 9 26 34 -8 22
16 Auxerre 21 3 5 13 14 29 -15 14
17 Nantes 21 3 5 13 19 37 -18 14
18 Metz 21 3 4 14 21 46 -25 13

Recent Trends

Metz D L L L D

  • Last Match: D vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Angers (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lyon (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Lorient (Goals: 1 - 1)

Auxerre D D L L L

  • Last Match: D vs Paris FC (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Toulouse (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Lens (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Brest (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Metz

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.95
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.72
# Clean Sheets: 1

Auxerre

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.77
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.58
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Auxerre are slight but clear favourites despite being away from home, with a 60.0% probability of taking all three points, compared with just 22.0% for Metz and 18.0% for the draw. The model points towards an away win in a tight, low-scoring contest, with an under 2.5 goals prediction (42.0% probability for over 2.5, so leaning to the under). In the table, Auxerre sit 16th on 14 points, one place and one point above bottom side Metz in 18th, making this a direct relegation six-pointer.

Match Analysis

Both teams come into this clash with fragile form and huge pressure. Metz have taken just one point from their last three games: a heavy 2-5 home loss to Lyon, a 0-1 defeat away to Angers, and a battling 0-0 home draw with Lille. That mini-run underlines their inconsistency – capable of creating chances (15 shots vs Lyon, 6 vs Lille) but also vulnerable defensively, especially against stronger attacks. Auxerre’s recent pattern is different: they are very hard to break down but struggling badly to score. They’ve drawn 0-0 with Paris FC and Toulouse and narrowly lost 0-1 at home to Paris SG, so only one goal conceded in three matches but none scored. Advanced metrics back this picture: Auxerre average just 0.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded in their last five games, with xG of 0.768 for and 1.584 against. Metz look a bit more open: 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded on average, with 0.952 xG for and 1.718 xG against. That suggests Metz games tend to be more stretched, but Auxerre’s more controlled approach may tilt the balance in their favour.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Metz
Goals in last 5 matches
Auxerre
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to under 2.5 despite a 42.0% probability assigned to over 2.5 goals, reflecting how cagey this could be. Two of Metz’s last three matches have gone under 2.5 (0-0 vs Lille, 0-1 vs Angers), with only the 2-5 against Lyon going over. All three of Auxerre’s recent games have been under 2.5, and they have failed to score in each of them. With both teams’ recent xG figures around or below 1.0 per game and Auxerre defending relatively well, the under 2.5 prediction fits the numbers and the context.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Metz
Corners in last 5 matches
Auxerre
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.35, pointing towards a fairly standard tally rather than an extreme game. Metz’s last three have produced 7, 7 and 10 corners (they earned 1, 3 and 6 themselves), while Auxerre’s have seen 11, 9 and 9 corners (with 7, 4 and 2 won by them). Both sides allow opponents to attack and cross, which supports a moderate corners prediction around that 9–10 range, rather than a very low or very high count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Metz
Shots in last 5 matches
Auxerre
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 22.38, suggesting a match with a reasonable amount of goalmouth action but not end-to-end chaos. Metz’s last three outings saw them take 6, 5 and 15 shots while facing 16, 17 and 13; Auxerre have recorded 12, 8 and 8 attempts, conceding 8, 12 and 16. Those numbers, combined with relatively modest xG for both sides, align with a shots prediction just above 20, with more efforts likely falling to the team that manages to control midfield spells.

Final Prediction

Auxerre’s edge comes from their recent defensive stability and slightly better league position, while Metz’s leaky back line has often undone their attacking efforts. The key factor to watch will be whether Metz can turn home pressure into clear chances against a compact Auxerre side that has built its survival fight on low-scoring, disciplined performances.

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