Ligue 1 2025-2026: Metz vs Lille Prediction - 6 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Metz

Home Team
2%
VS

Lille

Away Team
95%
Draw: 3%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 20 15 3 2 43 16 27 48
2 Lens 20 15 1 4 34 16 18 46
3 Marseille 20 12 3 5 46 22 24 39
4 Lyon 20 12 3 5 33 20 13 39
5 Lille 20 10 2 8 34 30 4 32
6 Rennes 20 8 7 5 30 31 -1 31
7 Strasbourg 20 9 3 8 33 25 8 30
8 Toulouse 20 8 6 6 31 23 8 30
9 Lorient 20 7 7 6 27 31 -4 28
10 Monaco 20 8 3 9 32 33 -1 27
11 Angers 20 7 5 8 21 25 -4 26
12 Brest 20 6 5 9 26 33 -7 23
13 Nice 20 6 4 10 27 38 -11 22
14 Paris FC 20 5 6 9 26 34 -8 21
15 Le Havre 20 4 8 8 16 25 -9 20
16 Nantes 20 3 5 12 19 36 -17 14
17 Auxerre 20 3 4 13 14 29 -15 13
18 Metz 20 3 3 14 21 46 -25 12

Recent Trends

Metz L L L D L

  • Last Match: L vs Angers (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lyon (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Lorient (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 2 - 3)

Lille L L L L W

  • Last Match: L vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Auxerre (Goals: 4 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Metz

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.46
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.66
# Clean Sheets: 0

Lille

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.73
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.21
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Lille are overwhelming favourites here, with a 95.0% probability of taking all three points away at 18th‑placed Metz, who are fighting to avoid relegation, while Lille sit 5th and pushing for Europe. The model also leans slightly towards a low‑scoring contest, with under 2.5 goals more likely than over (over 2.5 at just 47.0%). There is a 51.0% chance that both teams get on the scoresheet, suggesting Metz might at least trouble the Lille defence.

Match Analysis

Metz come into this one on a three‑match losing streak: 0–1 at Angers, 2–5 at home to Lyon, and 1–2 away at Strasbourg. Their defensive issues are clear: 46 goals conceded in 20 league games and an average of 2.0 goals shipped over the last five matches, with no clean sheets in that stretch. Offensively, they’ve been more competitive than results suggest, averaging 1.6 goals and 1.46 expected goals per game over the last five, but that attacking output hasn’t been enough to mask a -25 goal difference. Lille’s recent form is also poor results‑wise, with three straight defeats to Lyon (0–1), Strasbourg (1–4) and Paris SG (0–3). However, their underlying numbers look more solid than Metz’s. They concede 1.8 goals per game over the last five but only 1.212 expected goals on average, hinting that opponents have been finishing efficiently against them. In attack, Lille’s output has dipped to 1.0 goal per game and just 0.726 expected goals, but over the full season they remain far more balanced than Metz, with 34 scored and 30 conceded and a positive goal difference.

Final Prediction

Lille’s superior league position, better goal difference and more stable defensive metrics give them a clear edge despite both sides’ recent losing runs. The key factor to watch will be whether Metz’s fragile back line can withstand Lille’s pressure long enough to stay in the game, or if an early Lille goal turns this into the one‑sided affair the probabilities suggest.

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