Ligue 1 2025-2026: Monaco vs Marseille Prediction - 5 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Monaco

Home Team
36%
VS

Marseille

Away Team
39%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 64%
Under 2.5: 36%
Goal: 65%
No Goal: 35%
Expected Corners: 9.0
Expected Shots: 25.8

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 26 19 3 4 58 22 36 60
2 Lens 27 19 2 6 54 24 30 59
3 Marseille 27 15 4 8 54 35 19 49
4 Lyon 27 14 5 8 41 29 12 47
5 Lille 27 14 5 8 42 34 8 47
6 Monaco 27 14 4 9 47 38 9 46
7 Rennes 27 12 8 7 43 37 6 44
8 Strasbourg 27 11 7 9 43 33 10 40
9 Toulouse 27 10 7 10 38 32 6 37
10 Lorient 27 9 10 8 37 41 -4 37
11 Brest 27 10 6 11 34 39 -5 36
12 Angers 27 9 5 13 24 37 -13 32
13 Paris FC 27 7 10 10 32 43 -11 31
14 Le Havre 27 6 9 12 22 35 -13 27
15 Nice 27 7 6 14 32 52 -20 27
16 Auxerre 27 5 7 15 22 36 -14 22
17 Nantes 26 4 5 17 24 45 -21 17
18 Metz 27 3 5 19 25 60 -35 14

Recent Trends

Monaco W W W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Lyon (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Brest (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Paris SG (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Lens (Goals: 3 - 2)

Marseille L W W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Lille (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Toulouse (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Lyon (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Brest (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Monaco

xG (avg) 2.06
xGA (avg) 0.96
Clean Sheets 2

Marseille

xG (avg) 2.04
xGA (avg) 2.02
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Marseille are given a slight edge here, with a 39.0% chance of victory against Monaco’s 36.0%, and a 25.0% probability of a draw, so the predicted result leans narrowly towards an away win. The model also points strongly towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 64.0% probability. In the table, Marseille are 3rd on 49 points, chasing the Champions League spots, while Monaco are just behind in 6th on 46 points and aiming to break into the top three.

Match Analysis

Monaco arrive in superb form after three straight wins, including statement away victories at Lyon (2-1) and Paris SG (3-1), plus a controlled 2-0 home success against Brest. They’ve shown they can win both in open battles and more measured contests, and even when outshot – as against Brest and Paris SG – they’ve been ruthless in front of goal. Over their last five games, Monaco average 2.4 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded, backed up by strong underlying numbers of 2.056 expected goals created and 0.956 conceded per match, with two clean sheets in that span. Marseille’s recent run is steadier but less explosive. They edged tight games against Auxerre (1-0) and Toulouse (1-0) before a 2-1 home defeat to Lille checked their momentum. The pattern is of a side that creates enough to win – 16 shots versus Auxerre, 10 away at Toulouse, 14 against Lille – but hasn’t turned its chances into many goals recently. Over the last five matches they’ve averaged 1.6 scored and 2.2 conceded, with xG figures of 2.042 for and 2.022 against, plus two clean sheets, suggesting open, chance-filled games where defensive control is not always guaranteed.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Monaco
Goals in last 5 matches
Marseille
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 64.0% looks well supported by recent trends and underlying data. Two of Monaco’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (3-1 at Paris SG, 2-1 at Lyon), with only the 2-0 win over Brest staying under, and they are averaging 2.4 scored and 0.8 conceded over their last five. Marseille’s last three have all finished under 2.5 (1-0, 1-0, 1-2), but their five-game averages of 1.6 scored and 2.2 conceded, coupled with xG figures just above 2.0 at both ends, point towards a game that could easily tip into a higher-scoring category once chances are taken more clinically.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Monaco
Corners in last 5 matches
Marseille
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total for this clash is 9.01, suggesting a modest but active game in wide areas. Monaco’s last three have produced 8, 11 and 9 total corners respectively, while Marseille’s have seen 10, 11 and 6, numbers consistent with this corners prediction around the 9-mark. Both sides tend to attack and give up territory in wide zones – Monaco’s 6-2 corner win at Lyon and Marseille’s 9-2 tally versus Auxerre underline how their front-foot styles naturally generate predicted corners.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Monaco
Shots in last 5 matches
Marseille
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this match stand at 25.82, which fits neatly with what both teams have been producing. Monaco’s recent games have seen combined shot counts of 36 at Lyon, 23 against Brest and 31 at Paris SG, while Marseille’s have totaled 25 versus Lille, 24 against Auxerre and 22 at Toulouse. Given both sides average over 2.0 expected goals in their last five outings, a shots prediction in the mid‑20s reflects two attacks willing to pull the trigger regularly.

Final Prediction

Marseille’s slight statistical edge, combined with their higher league position and strong chance creation, just nudges them in front in the prediction, even if the gap to Monaco is minimal. Monaco’s excellent recent form and sharp finishing, however, make this feel like a high‑stakes, finely balanced showdown, with the battle between Monaco’s clinical attack and Marseille’s chance-hungry forwards likely to decide who takes a vital step in the race for the Champions League places.

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