Premier League 2025-2026: Arsenal vs Burnley Prediction - 18 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Arsenal

Home Team
91%
VS

Burnley

Away Team
4%
Draw: 6%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 26.2
Expected Spread: +2.5

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 36 24 7 5 68 26 42 79
2 Man City 36 23 8 5 75 32 43 77
3 Man United 36 18 11 7 63 48 15 65
4 Liverpool 36 17 8 11 60 48 12 59
5 Aston Villa 36 17 8 11 50 46 4 59
6 Bournemouth 36 13 16 7 56 52 4 55
7 Brighton 36 14 11 11 52 42 10 53
8 Brentford 36 14 9 13 52 49 3 51
9 Chelsea 36 13 10 13 55 49 6 49
10 Everton 36 13 10 13 46 46 0 49
11 Fulham 36 14 6 16 44 50 -6 48
12 Sunderland 36 12 12 12 37 46 -9 48
13 Newcastle 36 13 7 16 50 52 -2 46
14 Leeds 36 10 14 12 48 53 -5 44
15 Crystal Palace 36 11 11 14 38 47 -9 44
16 Nott'm Forest 36 11 10 15 45 47 -2 43
17 Tottenham 36 9 11 16 46 55 -9 38
18 West Ham 36 9 9 18 42 62 -20 36
19 Burnley 36 4 9 23 37 73 -36 21
20 Wolves 36 3 9 24 25 66 -41 18

Recent Trends

Arsenal W W W L L

  • Last Match: W vs West Ham (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Bournemouth (Goals: 1 - 2)

Burnley D L L L L

  • Last Match: D vs Aston Villa (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Leeds (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Arsenal

xG (avg) 2.30
xGA (avg) 1.10
Clean Sheets 3

Burnley

xG (avg) 0.95
xGA (avg) 2.14
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Arsenal are overwhelming favourites at the Emirates, with a 91.0% probability of victory against a Burnley side sitting 19th and staring at relegation, compared with just 4.0% for an away win and 6.0% for a draw. Top-of-the-table Arsenal (1st, 79 points) are backed to win this comfortably, and the over 2.5 prediction is also in their favour, with a 57.0% chance of at least three goals in the game. With such a gulf between first and 19th, anything other than a home win would be a major shock.

Match Analysis

Arsenal come into this on a relentless run, with three straight wins: 1-0 away at West Ham, then 3-0 and 1-0 home victories over Fulham and Newcastle. Those results highlight a side that can grind out tight matches as well as open teams up, combining control with defensive discipline. Across their last five, they’ve averaged 1.8 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded per game, backed up by strong underlying numbers of 2.304 expected goals created and 1.098 expected goals against. Three clean sheets in five underline how hard it is to create clear chances against them. Burnley, 19th on 21 points, are in a very different place. They’ve taken just one point from their last three: a spirited 2-2 draw at home to Aston Villa, but then a 3-1 defeat at Leeds and a narrow 1-0 loss at home to Man City. The pattern is familiar: they compete in spells but concede too many good chances. Over their last five, they’ve averaged only 0.8 goals scored and 2.6 conceded, with 0.946 expected goals for and 2.14 against, and no clean sheets in that period. That imbalance between what they create and what they allow makes a trip to the league leaders especially daunting.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Arsenal
Goals in last 5 matches
Burnley
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured here at 57.0%, and there is decent support for that in the recent numbers. Two of Burnley’s last three games have gone over 2.5 goals (2-2 vs Villa, 1-3 vs Leeds), while two of Arsenal’s last three have stayed under 2.5 (1-0, 3-0, 1-0), showing Arsenal often control the tempo. Arsenal’s average of 1.8 scored and 0.6 conceded, combined with Burnley’s 0.8 for and 2.6 against, plus the xG gap (2.304 vs 0.946 in attack), all point towards the hosts having enough firepower to push the match over the under 2.5 line.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Arsenal
Corners in last 5 matches
Burnley
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at an expected total of 9.72, suggesting a game with a fair amount of attacking play but not an extreme corner count. Arsenal’s last three have produced 7, 7 and 9 total corners, while Burnley’s have yielded 10, 5 and 14, often with their opponents piling up set-piece situations. With Arsenal expected to dominate territory and Burnley likely pinned back, the predicted corners figure fits a match where the home side’s attacking pressure steadily racks up opportunities from wide areas.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Arsenal
Shots in last 5 matches
Burnley
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 26.21, reflecting a game tilted heavily towards Arsenal’s goal threat. Arsenal’s last three have seen them take 15, 18 and 11 shots, while facing 9, 10 and 13; Burnley have attempted 15, 9 and 9, but faced 18, 18 and a hefty 28. This shots prediction ties in with the xG picture: Arsenal’s 2.304 expected goals per match over their last five suggests a steady stream of efforts, while Burnley’s high expected goals against (2.14) hints at them again conceding a large number of chances.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Arsenal wins by X goals. Negative = Burnley wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Arsenal vs Burnley with expected spread of +2.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Arsenal vs Burnley
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is firmly in Arsenal’s favour, with an expected spread of +2.45, meaning the model sees the home side winning by roughly two to three goals. Recent results support that gap: Arsenal are +4 on aggregate over their last three (5 scored, 1 conceded), whereas Burnley are -3 (3 scored, 6 conceded) in the same period. That expected spread lines up cleanly with a 91.0% home-win probability and the contrast between Arsenal’s tight defence and Burnley’s leaky back line.

Final Prediction

Arsenal’s superiority in league position, recent results, and underlying numbers gives them a clear edge against a Burnley team fighting but outgunned at both ends of the pitch. The combination of Arsenal’s strong xG, Burnley’s defensive vulnerability, and the projected goal spread all point in one direction. A key factor to watch will be how quickly Arsenal can turn dominance into goals; if they score early, the margin could grow in line with the expected spread.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel