Premier League 2025-2026: West Ham vs Arsenal Prediction - 10 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

West Ham

Home Team
19%
VS

Arsenal

Away Team
63%
Draw: 18%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 24.9
Expected Spread: -1.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 35 23 7 5 67 26 41 76
2 Man City 34 21 8 5 69 32 37 71
3 Man United 35 18 10 7 63 48 15 64
4 Liverpool 35 17 7 11 59 47 12 58
5 Aston Villa 35 17 7 11 48 44 4 58
6 Bournemouth 35 12 16 7 55 52 3 52
7 Brentford 35 14 9 12 52 46 6 51
8 Brighton 35 13 11 11 49 42 7 50
9 Chelsea 35 13 9 13 54 48 6 48
10 Everton 35 13 9 13 44 44 0 48
11 Fulham 35 14 6 15 44 49 -5 48
12 Sunderland 35 12 11 12 37 46 -9 47
13 Newcastle 35 13 6 16 49 51 -2 45
14 Leeds 35 10 13 12 47 52 -5 43
15 Crystal Palace 34 11 10 13 36 42 -6 43
16 Nott'm Forest 35 11 9 15 44 46 -2 42
17 Tottenham 35 9 10 16 45 54 -9 37
18 West Ham 35 9 9 17 42 61 -19 36
19 Burnley 35 4 8 23 35 71 -36 20
20 Wolves 35 3 9 23 25 63 -38 18

Recent Trends

West Ham L W D W L

  • Last Match: L vs Brentford (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Everton (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Wolves (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Aston Villa (Goals: 0 - 2)

Arsenal W W L L W

  • Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Bournemouth (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Everton (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

West Ham

xG (avg) 1.70
xGA (avg) 0.98
Clean Sheets 2

Arsenal

xG (avg) 1.78
xGA (avg) 1.18
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Arsenal are strong favourites here, with a 63.0% chance of taking all three points away at the London Stadium, compared to just 19.0% for West Ham and an 18.0% probability of a draw. The model points to a narrow game in terms of goals, with an under 2.5 prediction at 53.0% despite Arsenal’s attacking strength. It’s a clash between league leaders Arsenal (1st, 76 points) and relegation-threatened West Ham (18th, 36 points), with both teams still fighting for major objectives at opposite ends of the table.

Match Analysis

West Ham come into this under heavy pressure, sitting in the bottom three and needing points. Their last three matches have produced a mixed return: a 2-1 home win over Everton, a 0-0 draw away at Crystal Palace, and a bruising 3-0 defeat at Brentford. Interestingly, that recent run has been more solid defensively than their league position suggests, with just four goals conceded in those three games and two clean sheets in their last five overall. Their recent averages underline that: 1.6 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded per game over the last five, backed by 1.704 xG for and 0.978 xG against. Arsenal arrive top of the table and in form, having beaten Fulham 3-0 and Newcastle 1-0 at home, either side of a tight 2-1 defeat away to Manchester City. Their balance between attack and defence has been evident: 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game over the last five, with 1.782 xG for and 1.18 xG against, plus three clean sheets in that spell. Those numbers suggest a side capable of controlling games and limiting chances, even in tougher fixtures. Combined with their far superior goal difference over the season (+41 to West Ham’s -19), it explains why Arsenal are expected to have the edge.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

West Ham
Goals in last 5 matches
Arsenal
Goals in last 5 matches
The under 2.5 prediction is favoured here, with under 2.5 goals slightly more likely than over at 53.0%, despite a 54.0% probability that both teams find the net at some stage. Two of West Ham’s last three league games have finished under 2.5 (0-0 at Palace, 2-1 vs Everton, 0-3 at Brentford), while two of Arsenal’s last three have also gone under (1-0 vs Newcastle, 3-0 vs Fulham, 1-2 at City). With West Ham averaging 1.6 scored and 0.6 conceded, and Arsenal at 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded, supported by similar xG figures on both sides, a tight, controlled contest fits the under 2.5 pattern.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

West Ham
Corners in last 5 matches
Arsenal
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a moderately active game from wide areas, with expected total corners in the match at 9.6. West Ham’s last three outings have produced corner counts of 6-2, 3-4 and 6-4, showing they can both create and concede opportunities from set pieces. Arsenal, meanwhile, have seen 3-4, 7-2 and 5-8 in their recent games, suggesting a team that builds pressure, especially at home, but still forces corners when under the cosh away. With Arsenal likely to have more of the ball and West Ham relying on direct play and set pieces, the predicted corners total aligns well with both teams’ approaches.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

West Ham
Shots in last 5 matches
Arsenal
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction is for an open but not wild contest, with expected shots in the match at 24.92. West Ham’s last three games have seen shot totals of 13-14, 10-11 and 9-9 — consistently around that mid-20s mark overall. Arsenal have registered 18-10, 11-13 and 9-15 in their last three, again hovering around similar totals while often edging quality rather than sheer volume. Those shot numbers tie neatly into the xG profiles for both sides, hinting at a game where Arsenal generate the clearer chances within a roughly 25-shot framework.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = West Ham wins by X goals. Negative = Arsenal wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for West Ham vs Arsenal with expected spread of -1.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for West Ham vs Arsenal
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has an expected spread of -1.0 (home minus away), meaning Arsenal are projected to win by around a single goal. Recent scorelines support that edge: West Ham are -2 on aggregate over their last three (2 scored, 4 conceded), while Arsenal are +2 (5 scored, 3 conceded) over the same span. Combining that with the 63.0% Arsenal win probability, stronger underlying attacking metrics, and more frequent clean sheets, the expected spread leans clearly towards an away victory by a narrow margin.

Final Prediction

Arsenal’s superior league position, recent form and more robust numbers at both ends of the pitch give them a clear statistical advantage, even away from home. West Ham’s recent defensive tightening offers some hope, but they will need to be extremely efficient with the chances they create. The key factor to watch will be whether West Ham can disrupt Arsenal’s control in midfield; if they cannot, the league leaders are well placed to grind out the kind of controlled, low-scoring win the data suggests.

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