Serie A 2025-2026: Como vs Parma Prediction - 17 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Como

Home Team
80%
VS

Parma

Away Team
9%
Draw: 11%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 24.5
Expected Spread: +1.4

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 36 27 4 5 85 31 54 85
2 Napoli 36 21 7 8 54 36 18 70
3 Juventus 36 19 11 6 59 30 29 68
4 Milan 36 19 10 7 50 32 18 67
5 Roma 36 21 4 11 55 31 24 67
6 Como 36 18 11 7 60 28 32 65
7 Atalanta 36 15 13 8 50 34 16 58
8 Bologna 36 15 7 14 45 43 2 52
9 Lazio 36 13 12 11 39 37 2 51
10 Udinese 36 14 8 14 45 46 -1 50
11 Sassuolo 36 14 7 15 44 46 -2 49
12 Torino 36 12 8 16 41 59 -18 44
13 Parma 36 10 12 14 27 45 -18 42
14 Genoa 36 10 11 15 40 48 -8 41
15 Fiorentina 36 8 14 14 38 49 -11 38
16 Cagliari 36 9 10 17 36 51 -15 37
17 Lecce 36 8 8 20 24 48 -24 32
18 Cremonese 36 7 10 19 30 53 -23 31
19 Verona 36 3 11 22 24 58 -34 20
20 Pisa 36 2 12 22 25 66 -41 18

Recent Trends

Como W D W L L

  • Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 3 - 4)

Parma L L W W D

  • Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Como

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.47
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.60
# Clean Sheets: 3

Parma

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.61
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.37
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Como are strong favourites at home, with an 80.0% probability of victory against a Parma side sitting 13th, while Como chase the Champions League spots from 6th place. The model points to a home win and a tight scoreline, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 51.0% (49.0% for over). A draw is given just an 11.0% chance, and an away upset only 9.0%.

Match Analysis

Como arrive in excellent form and with real control in their performances. They have taken seven points from their last three matches: a professional 1-0 win away to Verona, a solid 0-0 home draw with second‑placed Napoli, and a 2-0 success at Genoa. The pattern is clear: defensively disciplined, three clean sheets in the last five, and comfortable managing games with or without the ball. The advanced numbers reinforce this superiority. Over the last five matches Como are averaging 2.6 goals scored and only 1.2 conceded, backed by a hefty 2.474 expected goals created per game and just 0.598 xG allowed. Parma, by contrast, look blunt in attack and fragile at the back: 0.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average in their last five, with only 0.608 xG for and 1.368 xG against. Recent results underline that inconsistency – a 1-0 home win over bottom‑side Pisa sandwiched between a 0-2 defeat at Inter and a 2-3 home loss to Roma – and suggest they struggle to impose themselves against stronger opponents, especially away from home.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Como
Goals in last 5 matches
Parma
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans slightly towards an under 2.5 outcome (51.0%), and the recent scorelines support that under 2.5 view. Two of Como’s last three matches finished under 2.5 goals (1-0 vs Verona, 0-0 vs Napoli, then 2-0 at Genoa). Parma have also seen two of their last three stay under – 0-2 at Inter and 1-0 vs Pisa – with only the 2-3 loss to Roma going over. Despite Como’s strong attacking averages (2.6 scored, 2.474 xG), Parma’s poor 0.6 goals per game and 0.608 xG suggest the visitors may struggle to contribute heavily to an over 2.5 prediction.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Como
Corners in last 5 matches
Parma
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.38, indicating a moderate but not explosive corners prediction. Como’s recent games have produced 14, 5 and 5 corners respectively, while Parma’s have yielded 9, 11 and 11, pointing to matches that regularly hover around this projected range. Como’s balanced but assertive style and Parma’s need to counter and chase from behind both hint at a steady flow of set‑pieces without turning the contest into a corner-fest.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Como
Shots in last 5 matches
Parma
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total shots stands at 24.47, a figure that fits well with recent patterns for both sides and justifies a positive shots prediction. Como’s last three have seen combined shot totals of 22, 24 and 17, while Parma’s fixtures produced 26, 16 and 27 efforts. With Como generating high xG (2.474) and Parma conceding plenty (1.368 xG against), we can reasonably expect the hosts to account for a healthy share of those expected shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Como wins by X goals. Negative = Parma wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Como vs Parma with expected spread of +1.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Como vs Parma
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has Como favoured by 1.45 goals, an expected spread that mirrors both form and league position. In their last three, Como have a goal difference of +3 (1-0, 0-0, 2-0), while Parma sit at -2 over the same sample (2-3, 0-2, 1-0). Coupled with the 80.0% home‑win probability and Como’s superior attacking and defensive metrics, the numbers point towards a comfortable – if not necessarily high‑scoring – home victory.

Final Prediction

Como’s edge lies in their mix of solidity at the back and efficiency in front of goal, backed up by dominant xG figures and recent clean sheets. Parma’s struggle to create clear chances away from home could be decisive. The key factor to watch will be whether Parma can disrupt Como’s control early; if they cannot, the hosts look well placed to turn territorial dominance into another clinical home win.

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