Serie A 2025-2026: Sassuolo vs Lecce Prediction - 17 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Sassuolo

Home Team
56%
VS

Lecce

Away Team
23%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 24.7
Expected Spread: +0.7

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 36 27 4 5 85 31 54 85
2 Napoli 36 21 7 8 54 36 18 70
3 Juventus 36 19 11 6 59 30 29 68
4 Milan 36 19 10 7 50 32 18 67
5 Roma 36 21 4 11 55 31 24 67
6 Como 36 18 11 7 60 28 32 65
7 Atalanta 36 15 13 8 50 34 16 58
8 Bologna 36 15 7 14 45 43 2 52
9 Lazio 36 13 12 11 39 37 2 51
10 Udinese 36 14 8 14 45 46 -1 50
11 Sassuolo 36 14 7 15 44 46 -2 49
12 Torino 36 12 8 16 41 59 -18 44
13 Parma 36 10 12 14 27 45 -18 42
14 Genoa 36 10 11 15 40 48 -8 41
15 Fiorentina 36 8 14 14 38 49 -11 38
16 Cagliari 36 9 10 17 36 51 -15 37
17 Lecce 36 8 8 20 24 48 -24 32
18 Cremonese 36 7 10 19 30 53 -23 31
19 Verona 36 3 11 22 24 58 -34 20
20 Pisa 36 2 12 22 25 66 -41 18

Recent Trends

Sassuolo L W D W L

  • Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Milan (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Como (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 2)

Lecce L W D D L

  • Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Verona (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sassuolo

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.26
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.45
# Clean Sheets: 2

Lecce

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.03
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.42
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Sassuolo are slight but clear favourites at home, with a 56.0% chance of victory against Lecce’s 23.0%, and the draw at 22.0%. The model leans towards a home win and a tight game, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 54.0% probability. In the table, Sassuolo sit 11th on 49 points, safely mid-table, while Lecce are 17th on 32 points and still right on the edge of the relegation fight.

Match Analysis

Sassuolo come into this one with solid recent form: a 2-0 home win over Milan, a goalless draw away at Fiorentina and a narrow 2-1 defeat at Torino. That run shows a more pragmatic side: only three goals conceded across those three games, plus a statement clean sheet against a Champions League-chasing Milan. Over their last five, they average 1.6 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded, though their xG numbers (1.262 for, 1.452 against) suggest they’ve slightly overperformed at the back and might allow more chances than the raw scorelines show. Lecce’s last three tell the story of a team still grinding for safety. They edged Pisa 2-1 away, drew 0-0 at Verona and then lost 1-0 at home to Juventus. That’s only two goals scored in three games, but also just two conceded – tighter, more cautious football befitting a side in 17th place. The advanced metrics back that up: they average 0.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded in their last five, with xG of 1.03 for and 1.424 against. They are creating a bit more than they are finishing, but still lack cutting edge compared with Sassuolo.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Sassuolo
Goals in last 5 matches
Lecce
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction leans towards under: under 2.5 goals is favoured at 54.0%. Only one of Sassuolo’s last three (the 2-1 at Torino) went over 2.5 goals, with the other two finishing 2-0 and 0-0. Lecce have followed a similar pattern: just one over (2-1 at Pisa) and two unders (0-0 at Verona, 0-1 vs Juventus). With Sassuolo averaging 1.6 scored and 0.8 conceded, and Lecce at 0.6 scored and 1.2 conceded, plus both sides’ xG hovering around 1–1.4 per game, a low-scoring contest fits the data and supports the under 2.5 call.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Sassuolo
Corners in last 5 matches
Lecce
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a moderate tally, with expected total corners for this match at 9.68. Sassuolo’s last three produced corner counts of 5-7, 2-3 and 4-7, showing that their games can swing between more open and more controlled but usually stay around that 9–12 range combined. Lecce’s recent figures (1-7, 1-6, 4-2) indicate they tend to concede more corners than they win, especially when soaked in their own half. Given Sassuolo’s greater attacking initiative at home and Lecce’s reactive style, the predicted corners number around ten looks well aligned.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Sassuolo
Shots in last 5 matches
Lecce
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
For shots prediction, the model expects 24.66 total attempts in this game. Sassuolo’s last three outings saw them take 13, 13 and 11 shots, while allowing 18, 7 and 22 – wide swings that reflect how open their matches can become. Lecce, meanwhile, attempted 8, 7 and 12 shots, conceding 15, 17 and 6. With both sides’ xG in the 1.0–1.4 range, an expected shots figure in the mid‑20s fits a match where Sassuolo push forward and Lecce look to counter selectively.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Sassuolo wins by X goals. Negative = Lecce wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Sassuolo vs Lecce with expected spread of +0.7
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Sassuolo vs Lecce
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has an expected spread of +0.68 in Sassuolo’s favour, indicating the home side are projected to win by around one goal. Over the last three, Sassuolo’s goal difference is +1 (3 scored, 2 conceded), while Lecce’s is -1 (2 scored, 3 conceded), reinforcing the idea of a narrow edge rather than a blowout. Combined with the win probabilities and Sassuolo’s stronger scoring average, this expected spread points to a likely 1–0 or 2–1 type home victory.

Final Prediction

Sassuolo’s better form, higher league position and slightly sharper attack give them the advantage, even if the numbers hint at a tight, nervy contest. Lecce’s need for points will keep them competitive, but their low scoring rate is a concern. The key factor to watch is whether Sassuolo can turn their territorial dominance and shot volume into early goals, or if Lecce can drag the game into the kind of low-tempo struggle that suits their survival bid.

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