Bastad 2026: the title odds race
One line per player: the chance of winning the title on each day's simulation run, exactly as published at the time. The forecast moves with a player's own results and with what rivals do in the other half of the draw.
Title race
how the forecast moved · daily runs Jul 13 to Jul 20
Coloured lines: players who entered the daily top 5 of title probability at least once. A line ending in ✕ is an elimination. Grey lines are the best of the rest. Tap a player to isolate their line.
Data table: title probability by day
| Player | Jul 13 | Jul 14 | Jul 15 | Jul 16 | Jul 17 | Jul 18 | Jul 19 | Jul 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrey Rublev | 18.2% | 17.9% | 20.1% | 18.2% | 26.4% | 34.2% | 36.5% | 100.0% |
| Luciano Darderi | 14.1% | 14.9% | 11.1% | 21.8% | 19.5% | 33.8% | 51.6% | out |
| Alejandro Tabilo | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 17.9% | 11.9% | out |
| Nuno Borges | 4.6% | 4.6% | 8.0% | 14.5% | 15.7% | out | – | – |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 14.2% | out | – | – |
| Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | 3.5% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 14.1% | out | – |
| Mariano Navone | 11.8% | 11.2% | 11.4% | out | – | – | – | – |
How the race unfolded
Andrey Rublev won Bastad 2026. On Jul 13, the opening run of the simulation, the favourite was Andrey Rublev at 18.2%. Andrey Rublev never led the open forecast: the front changed hands only when the title was decided. The sharpest fall: Nuno Borges, from 15.7% to out of the tournament on Jul 18.
Last open forecast (Jul 19)
- Luciano Darderi (2) 51.6%
- Andrey Rublev (1) 36.5%
- Alejandro Tabilo (3) 11.9%
Forecasts come from the daily Monte Carlo run of the remaining draw (20,000 simulations on calibrated Elo and Glicko-2 ratings) and are stored when published, never rewritten. Methodology: how the simulations work · model transparency.
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The ATP title odds history dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/tennis_atp_tournament_simulations/bastad-2026">ATP title odds history by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)