Eastbourne 2026: the title odds race
One line per player: the chance of winning the title on each day's simulation run, exactly as published at the time. The forecast moves with a player's own results and with what rivals do in the other half of the draw.
Title race
how the forecast moved · daily runs Jun 22 to Jul 20
Coloured lines: players who entered the daily top 5 of title probability at least once. A line ending in ✕ is an elimination. Grey lines are the best of the rest. Tap a player to isolate their line.
Data table: title probability by day
| Player | Jun 22 | Jun 23 | Jun 24 | Jun 25 | Jun 26 | Jun 27 | Jun 29 | Jul 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zizou Bergs | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 7.6% | 15.4% | 36.1% | 42.4% | 100.0% |
| Taylor Fritz | 36.4% | 41.9% | 36.4% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Joao Fonseca | 12.0% | 12.3% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Francisco Cerundolo | 9.9% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Brandon Nakashima | 4.2% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Ugo Humbert | 2.7% | 2.4% | 7.5% | 16.6% | 25.2% | 63.9% | 57.6% | out |
| Jack Draper | 8.4% | 14.1% | 18.1% | 30.0% | 42.2% | out | – | – |
| Toby Samuel | – | 2.4% | 1.9% | 7.9% | 17.3% | out | – | – |
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 1.8% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 16.5% | out | – | – | – |
| Gabriel Diallo | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 8.2% | out | – | – | – |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | 2.6% | 3.2% | 6.0% | out | – | – | – | – |
| Giles Hussey | 1.8% | 1.8% | 5.1% | out | – | – | – | – |
How the race unfolded
Zizou Bergs won Eastbourne 2026. On Jun 22, the opening run of the simulation, the favourite was Taylor Fritz at 36.4%. Zizou Bergs never led the open forecast: the front changed hands only when the title was decided. The sharpest fall: Jack Draper, from 42.2% to out of the tournament on Jun 27.
Last open forecast (Jun 29)
- Ugo Humbert (6) 57.6%
- Zizou Bergs 42.4%
Forecasts come from the daily Monte Carlo run of the remaining draw (20,000 simulations on calibrated Elo and Glicko-2 ratings) and are stored when published, never rewritten. Methodology: how the simulations work · model transparency.
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The ATP title odds history dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/tennis_atp_tournament_simulations/eastbourne-2026">ATP title odds history by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)