Gstaad 2026: the title odds race
One line per player: the chance of winning the title on each day's simulation run, exactly as published at the time. The forecast moves with a player's own results and with what rivals do in the other half of the draw.
Title race
how the forecast moved · daily runs Jul 13 to Jul 20
Coloured lines: players who entered the daily top 5 of title probability at least once. A line ending in ✕ is an elimination. Grey lines are the best of the rest. Tap a player to isolate their line.
Data table: title probability by day
| Player | Jul 13 | Jul 14 | Jul 15 | Jul 16 | Jul 17 | Jul 18 | Jul 19 | Jul 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 2.3% | 2.7% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 11.6% | 15.1% | 52.0% | 100.0% |
| Raphael Collignon | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 26.0% | 48.0% | out |
| Casper Ruud | 28.5% | 31.6% | 28.9% | 24.6% | 30.7% | out | – | – |
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 9.5% | 29.7% | out | – |
| Aleksandr Shevchenko | 2.2% | 2.0% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 17.4% | out | – |
| Valentin Vacherot | 10.2% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 13.1% | 17.3% | out | – | – |
| Alexander Bublik | 13.5% | 15.2% | 14.5% | 11.0% | 9.9% | out | – | – |
| Arthur Rinderknech | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 11.8% | out | – |
| Jaime Faria | 6.0% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 6.9% | out | – | – | – |
How the race unfolded
Stefanos Tsitsipas won Gstaad 2026. On Jul 13, the opening run of the simulation, the favourite was Casper Ruud at 28.5%. Stefanos Tsitsipas took the front on Jul 19 and kept it to the end, after the lead had changed hands 2 times. The sharpest fall: Casper Ruud, from 30.7% to out of the tournament on Jul 18.
Last open forecast (Jul 19)
- Stefanos Tsitsipas 52.0%
- Raphael Collignon (7) 48.0%
Forecasts come from the daily Monte Carlo run of the remaining draw (20,000 simulations on calibrated Elo and Glicko-2 ratings) and are stored when published, never rewritten. Methodology: how the simulations work · model transparency.
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The ATP title odds history dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/tennis_atp_tournament_simulations/gstaad-2026">ATP title odds history by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)