Halle 2026: the title odds race
One line per player: the chance of winning the title on each day's simulation run, exactly as published at the time. The forecast moves with a player's own results and with what rivals do in the other half of the draw.
Title race
how the forecast moved · daily runs Jun 15 to Jul 20
Coloured lines: players who entered the daily top 5 of title probability at least once. A line ending in ✕ is an elimination. Grey lines are the best of the rest. Tap a player to isolate their line.
Data table: title probability by day
| Player | Jun 15 | Jun 16 | Jun 17 | Jun 18 | Jun 19 | Jun 20 | Jun 21 | Jun 22 | Jun 23 | Jul 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frances Tiafoe | 1.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 17.1% | 33.0% | 35.6% | 35.6% | 100.0% |
| Taylor Fritz | 11.4% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 23.7% | 67.0% | 64.3% | 64.3% | out |
| Alexander Zverev | 30.7% | 35.5% | 44.6% | 41.4% | 43.2% | 54.8% | out | – | – | – |
| Daniil Medvedev | 7.6% | 7.4% | 12.0% | 15.3% | 15.8% | out | – | – | – | – |
| Ben Shelton | 7.9% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 11.6% | out | – | – | – | – |
| Felix Auger Aliassime | 4.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 11.0% | out | – | – | – | – |
| Andrey Rublev | 8.1% | 8.3% | out | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Daniel Altmaier | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 4.4% | out | – | – | – |
How the race unfolded
Frances Tiafoe won Halle 2026. On Jun 15, the opening run of the simulation, the favourite was Alexander Zverev at 30.7%. Frances Tiafoe never led the open forecast: the front changed hands only when the title was decided. The sharpest fall: Alexander Zverev, from 54.8% to out of the tournament on Jun 21.
Last open forecast (Jun 23)
- Taylor Fritz (5) 64.3%
- Frances Tiafoe 35.6%
Forecasts come from the daily Monte Carlo run of the remaining draw (20,000 simulations on calibrated Elo and Glicko-2 ratings) and are stored when published, never rewritten. Methodology: how the simulations work · model transparency.
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The ATP title odds history dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/tennis_atp_tournament_simulations/halle-2026">ATP title odds history by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)