London 2026: the title odds race
One line per player: the chance of winning the title on each day's simulation run, exactly as published at the time. The forecast moves with a player's own results and with what rivals do in the other half of the draw.
Title race
how the forecast moved · daily runs Jun 15 to Jul 20
Coloured lines: players who entered the daily top 5 of title probability at least once. A line ending in ✕ is an elimination. Grey lines are the best of the rest. Tap a player to isolate their line.
Data table: title probability by day
| Player | Jun 15 | Jun 16 | Jun 17 | Jun 18 | Jun 19 | Jun 20 | Jun 21 | Jun 22 | Jun 23 | Jul 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Cerundolo | 6.5% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 24.4% | 44.4% | 45.6% | 45.6% | 100.0% |
| Rafael Jodar | 7.7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Tommy Paul | 6.9% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 17.2% | 35.5% | 55.6% | 54.4% | 54.4% | out |
| Alex De Minaur | 6.9% | 7.4% | 25.2% | 29.9% | 30.0% | out | – | – | – | – |
| Brandon Nakashima | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 23.5% | out | – | – | – |
| Jakub Mensik | 16.1% | 16.7% | out | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Ugo Humbert | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 16.7% | out | – | – | – |
| Jiri Lehecka | 9.8% | 9.8% | 15.0% | 14.6% | out | – | – | – | – | – |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 4.4% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 12.4% | out | – | – | – | – |
How the race unfolded
Francisco Cerundolo won London 2026. On Jun 15, the opening run of the simulation, the favourite was Jakub Mensik at 16.1%. Francisco Cerundolo never led the open forecast: the front changed hands only when the title was decided. The sharpest fall: Alex De Minaur, from 30.0% to out of the tournament on Jun 20.
Last open forecast (Jun 23)
- Tommy Paul (8) 54.4%
- Francisco Cerundolo (7) 45.6%
Forecasts come from the daily Monte Carlo run of the remaining draw (20,000 simulations on calibrated Elo and Glicko-2 ratings) and are stored when published, never rewritten. Methodology: how the simulations work · model transparency.
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The ATP title odds history dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/tennis_atp_tournament_simulations/london-2026">ATP title odds history by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)