Mallorca 2026: the title odds race
One line per player: the chance of winning the title on each day's simulation run, exactly as published at the time. The forecast moves with a player's own results and with what rivals do in the other half of the draw.
Title race
how the forecast moved · daily runs Jun 21 to Jul 20
Coloured lines: players who entered the daily top 5 of title probability at least once. A line ending in ✕ is an elimination. Grey lines are the best of the rest. Tap a player to isolate their line.
Data table: title probability by day
| Player | Jun 21 | Jun 22 | Jun 23 | Jun 24 | Jun 25 | Jun 26 | Jun 27 | Jun 29 | Jul 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 14.7% | 14.1% | 16.9% | 15.1% | 23.7% | 38.4% | 63.9% | 67.0% | 100.0% |
| Frances Tiafoe | 20.2% | 22.6% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Ethan Quinn | 0.9% | 0.8% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 7.7% | 16.5% | 36.1% | 33.0% | out |
| Nuno Borges | 2.2% | 4.2% | 7.4% | 12.6% | 12.9% | 28.2% | out | – | – |
| Luciano Darderi | 10.8% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 18.0% | 18.6% | out | – | – | – |
| Fabian Marozsan | 2.0% | 1.1% | 3.8% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 16.9% | out | – | – |
| Vit Kopriva | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 10.6% | out | – | – | – |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | 1.4% | 1.4% | 4.2% | 9.4% | 9.5% | out | – | – | – |
| Ignacio Buse | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 8.6% | out | – | – | – | – |
| Lorenzo Sonego | 2.0% | 4.2% | 7.0% | out | – | – | – | – | – |
| Yannick Hanfmann | 2.3% | 3.8% | 6.6% | out | – | – | – | – | – |
| Alejandro Tabilo | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | out | – | – | – | – | – |
| Martin Landaluce | 5.1% | 3.8% | out | – | – | – | – | – | – |
How the race unfolded
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina won Mallorca 2026. On Jun 21, the opening run of the simulation, the favourite was Frances Tiafoe at 20.2%. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina took the front on Jun 25 and kept it to the end, after the lead had changed hands 3 times. The sharpest fall: Nuno Borges, from 28.2% to out of the tournament on Jun 27.
Last open forecast (Jun 29)
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (2) 67.0%
- Ethan Quinn 33.0%
Forecasts come from the daily Monte Carlo run of the remaining draw (20,000 simulations on calibrated Elo and Glicko-2 ratings) and are stored when published, never rewritten. Methodology: how the simulations work · model transparency.
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The ATP title odds history dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/tennis_atp_tournament_simulations/mallorca-2026">ATP title odds history by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)