's-Hertogenbosch 2026: the title odds race
One line per player: the chance of winning the title on each day's simulation run, exactly as published at the time. The forecast moves with a player's own results and with what rivals do in the other half of the draw.
Title race
how the forecast moved · daily runs Jun 11 to Jul 20
Coloured lines: players who entered the daily top 5 of title probability at least once. A line ending in ✕ is an elimination. Grey lines are the best of the rest. Tap a player to isolate their line.
Data table: title probability by day
| Player | Jun 11 | Jun 12 | Jun 13 | Jun 15 | Jun 16 | Jul 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamil Majchrzak | 2.2% | 4.6% | 11.2% | 53.4% | 53.4% | 100.0% |
| Alex De Minaur | 27.9% | 33.1% | 47.2% | 46.6% | 46.6% | out |
| Daniil Medvedev | 24.5% | 18.9% | 27.0% | out | – | – |
| Felix Auger Aliassime | 19.7% | 23.0% | out | – | – | – |
| Adrian Mannarino | 1.0% | 5.1% | 7.7% | out | – | – |
| Marin Cilic | 2.5% | 3.0% | 6.9% | out | – | – |
| Arthur Rinderknech | 6.6% | out | – | – | – | – |
| Benjamin Bonzi | 1.8% | 5.5% | out | – | – | – |
| Tallon Griekspoor | 4.5% | out | – | – | – | – |
How the race unfolded
Kamil Majchrzak won 's-Hertogenbosch 2026. On Jun 11, the opening run of the simulation, the favourite was Alex De Minaur at 27.9%. Kamil Majchrzak took the front on Jun 15 and kept it to the end. The sharpest fall: Daniil Medvedev, from 27.0% to out of the tournament on Jun 15.
Last open forecast (Jun 16)
- Kamil Majchrzak 53.4%
- Alex De Minaur (2) 46.6%
Forecasts come from the daily Monte Carlo run of the remaining draw (20,000 simulations on calibrated Elo and Glicko-2 ratings) and are stored when published, never rewritten. Methodology: how the simulations work · model transparency.
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The ATP title odds history dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/tennis_atp_tournament_simulations/s-hertogenbosch-2026">ATP title odds history by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)