Stuttgart 2026: the title odds race
One line per player: the chance of winning the title on each day's simulation run, exactly as published at the time. The forecast moves with a player's own results and with what rivals do in the other half of the draw.
Title race
how the forecast moved · daily runs Jun 11 to Jul 20
Coloured lines: players who entered the daily top 5 of title probability at least once. A line ending in ✕ is an elimination. Grey lines are the best of the rest. Tap a player to isolate their line.
Data table: title probability by day
| Player | Jun 11 | Jun 12 | Jun 13 | Jun 15 | Jun 16 | Jul 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Shelton | 20.7% | 18.4% | 21.5% | 46.9% | 46.9% | 100.0% |
| Taylor Fritz | 22.6% | 31.7% | 38.1% | 53.1% | 53.1% | out |
| Jiri Lehecka | 12.1% | 14.0% | 20.6% | out | – | – |
| Alexander Bublik | 16.7% | 15.0% | 17.2% | out | – | – |
| Frances Tiafoe | 8.1% | 10.9% | out | – | – | – |
| Sho Shimabukuro | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.7% | out | – | – |
How the race unfolded
Ben Shelton won Stuttgart 2026. On Jun 11, the opening run of the simulation, the favourite was Taylor Fritz at 22.6%. Ben Shelton never led the open forecast: the front changed hands only when the title was decided. The sharpest fall: Jiri Lehecka, from 20.6% to out of the tournament on Jun 15.
Last open forecast (Jun 16)
- Taylor Fritz (2) 53.1%
- Ben Shelton (1) 46.9%
Forecasts come from the daily Monte Carlo run of the remaining draw (20,000 simulations on calibrated Elo and Glicko-2 ratings) and are stored when published, never rewritten. Methodology: how the simulations work · model transparency.
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The ATP title odds history dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/tennis_atp_tournament_simulations/stuttgart-2026">ATP title odds history by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)