Umag 2026: the title odds race
One line per player: the chance of winning the title on each day's simulation run, exactly as published at the time. The forecast moves with a player's own results and with what rivals do in the other half of the draw.
Title race
how the forecast moved · daily runs Jul 13 to Jul 20
Coloured lines: players who entered the daily top 5 of title probability at least once. A line ending in ✕ is an elimination. Grey lines are the best of the rest. Tap a player to isolate their line.
Data table: title probability by day
| Player | Jul 13 | Jul 14 | Jul 15 | Jul 16 | Jul 17 | Jul 18 | Jul 19 | Jul 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Merida | 1.7% | 1.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 32.8% | 60.6% | 61.5% | 100.0% |
| Damir Dzumhur | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 22.1% | 39.4% | 38.5% | out |
| Flavio Cobolli | 30.1% | 31.7% | 25.9% | 29.1% | out | – | – | – |
| Alex Molcan | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 25.2% | out | – | – |
| Roman Andres Burruchaga | 0.6% | 0.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 19.9% | out | – | – |
| Matteo Arnaldi | 13.6% | 14.1% | 13.2% | 14.7% | out | – | – | – |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 9.2% | 10.6% | 13.7% | 11.5% | out | – | – | – |
| Alexander Blockx | 12.0% | 10.4% | out | – | – | – | – | – |
| Dino Prizmic | 4.5% | 6.7% | 10.6% | 8.4% | out | – | – | – |
| Pablo Carreno Busta | 3.3% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | out | – | – | – |
How the race unfolded
Daniel Merida won Umag 2026. On Jul 13, the opening run of the simulation, the favourite was Flavio Cobolli at 30.1%. Daniel Merida took the front on Jul 17 and kept it to the end. The sharpest fall: Flavio Cobolli, from 29.1% to out of the tournament on Jul 17.
Last open forecast (Jul 19)
- Daniel Merida 61.5%
- Damir Dzumhur 38.5%
Forecasts come from the daily Monte Carlo run of the remaining draw (20,000 simulations on calibrated Elo and Glicko-2 ratings) and are stored when published, never rewritten. Methodology: how the simulations work · model transparency.
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The ATP title odds history dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/tennis_atp_tournament_simulations/umag-2026">ATP title odds history by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)