Wimbledon 2026: the title odds race
One line per player: the chance of winning the title on each day's simulation run, exactly as published at the time. The forecast moves with a player's own results and with what rivals do in the other half of the draw.
Title race
how the forecast moved · daily runs Jun 29 to Jul 20
Coloured lines: players who entered the daily top 5 of title probability at least once. A line ending in ✕ is an elimination. Grey lines are the best of the rest. Tap a player to isolate their line.
Data table: title probability by day
| Player | Jun 29 | Jun 30 | Jul 1 | Jul 2 | Jul 3 | Jul 4 | Jul 5 | Jul 6 | Jul 7 | Jul 8 | Jul 9 | Jul 10 | Jul 12 | Jul 13 | Jul 14 | Jul 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jannik Sinner | 83.9% | 85.5% | 84.7% | 85.9% | 84.9% | 86.6% | 85.5% | 86.2% | 85.7% | 85.2% | 84.4% | 80.8% | 79.5% | 89.7% | 89.7% | 100.0% |
| Alexander Zverev | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 10.2% | 13.3% | 20.4% | 10.3% | 10.3% | out |
| Novak Djokovic | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.2% | out | – | – | – |
| Taylor Fritz | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.9% | out | – | – | – | – | – |
| Flavio Cobolli | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | out | – | – | – | – | – |
| Alex De Minaur | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | out | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Arthur Fery | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | out | – | – | – |
| Ben Shelton | 0.5% | 0.5% | out | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
How the race unfolded
Jannik Sinner won Wimbledon 2026. On Jun 29, the opening run of the simulation, the favourite was Jannik Sinner at 83.9%. The lead never changed hands: a wire-to-wire favourite. The sharpest fall: Alexander Zverev, from 20.4% to 10.3% on Jul 13.
Last open forecast (Jul 14)
- Jannik Sinner (1) 89.7%
- Alexander Zverev (2) 10.3%
Forecasts come from the daily Monte Carlo run of the remaining draw (20,000 simulations on calibrated Elo and Glicko-2 ratings) and are stored when published, never rewritten. Methodology: how the simulations work · model transparency.
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The ATP title odds history dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/tennis_atp_tournament_simulations/wimbledon-2026">ATP title odds history by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)