Athens 2026: the title odds race
One line per player: the chance of winning the title on each day's simulation run, exactly as published at the time. The forecast moves with a player's own results and with what rivals do in the other half of the draw.
Title race
how the forecast moved · daily runs Jul 13 to Jul 20
Coloured lines: players who entered the daily top 5 of title probability at least once. A line ending in ✕ is an elimination. Grey lines are the best of the rest. Tap a player to isolate their line.
Data table: title probability by day
| Player | Jul 13 | Jul 14 | Jul 15 | Jul 16 | Jul 17 | Jul 18 | Jul 19 | Jul 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barbora Krejcikova | 15.6% | 14.9% | 21.2% | 20.0% | 15.4% | 35.9% | 59.5% | 100.0% |
| Maria Sakkari | 6.2% | 13.6% | 12.5% | 16.1% | 15.5% | 21.1% | 40.5% | out |
| Clara Tauson | 7.8% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 16.5% | 27.1% | out | – |
| Qinwen Zheng | 6.2% | 13.7% | 18.1% | 18.6% | 22.6% | out | – | – |
| Alina Korneeva | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 6.3% | 15.8% | out | – |
| Tereza Valentova | 5.3% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 12.9% | out | – | – |
| Sara Bejlek | 4.3% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 8.4% | 5.3% | out | – | – |
| Magda Linette | 7.8% | out | – | – | – | – | – | – |
How the race unfolded
Barbora Krejcikova won Athens 2026. On Jul 13, the opening run of the simulation, the favourite was Barbora Krejcikova at 15.6%. Barbora Krejcikova took the front on Jul 18 and kept it to the end, after the lead had changed hands 2 times. The sharpest fall: Clara Tauson, from 27.1% to out of the tournament on Jul 19.
Last open forecast (Jul 19)
- Barbora Krejcikova (3) 59.5%
- Maria Sakkari (4) 40.5%
Forecasts come from the daily Monte Carlo run of the remaining draw (20,000 simulations on calibrated Elo and Glicko-2 ratings) and are stored when published, never rewritten. Methodology: how the simulations work · model transparency.
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The WTA title odds history dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/wta_tennis_tournament_simulations/athens-2026">WTA title odds history by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)