Iasi 2026: the title odds race
One line per player: the chance of winning the title on each day's simulation run, exactly as published at the time. The forecast moves with a player's own results and with what rivals do in the other half of the draw.
Title race
how the forecast moved · daily runs Jul 14 to Jul 20
Coloured lines: players who entered the daily top 5 of title probability at least once. A line ending in ✕ is an elimination. Grey lines are the best of the rest. Tap a player to isolate their line.
Data table: title probability by day
| Player | Jul 14 | Jul 15 | Jul 16 | Jul 17 | Jul 18 | Jul 19 | Jul 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paula Badosa | 6.5% | 9.7% | 17.1% | 19.9% | 49.1% | 60.1% | 69.2% |
| Mayar Sherif | 0.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 21.0% | 39.9% | 30.8% |
| Oleksandra Oliynykova | 8.3% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 30.3% | 18.8% | out | – |
| Yulia Putintseva | 3.0% | 5.8% | 14.2% | 13.4% | out | – | – |
| Anna Bondar | 10.9% | 13.6% | out | – | – | – | – |
| Petra Marcinko | 5.4% | 6.1% | 11.9% | 11.2% | out | – | – |
| Tamara Zidansek | 1.3% | 1.7% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 11.1% | out | – |
| Panna Udvardy | 3.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 10.7% | out | – | – |
| Elena-Gabriela Ruse | 10.1% | out | – | – | – | – | – |
| Clara Burel | 3.4% | 3.3% | 8.6% | 1.8% | out | – | – |
| Alevtina Ibragimova | 3.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | out | – | – | – |
| Kaitlin Quevedo | 1.2% | 7.8% | 6.5% | out | – | – | – |
How the race unfolded
On Jul 14, the opening run of the simulation, the favourite was Anna Bondar at 10.9%. Paula Badosa took the front on Jul 18 and kept it to the end, after the lead had changed hands 3 times. The sharpest fall: Oleksandra Oliynykova, from 18.8% to out of the tournament on Jul 19.
Last open forecast (Jul 20)
- Paula Badosa 69.2%
- Mayar Sherif 30.8%
Forecasts come from the daily Monte Carlo run of the remaining draw (20,000 simulations on calibrated Elo and Glicko-2 ratings) and are stored when published, never rewritten. Methodology: how the simulations work · model transparency.
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The WTA title odds history dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/wta_tennis_tournament_simulations/iasi-2026">WTA title odds history by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)