Wimbledon 2026: the title odds race
One line per player: the chance of winning the title on each day's simulation run, exactly as published at the time. The forecast moves with a player's own results and with what rivals do in the other half of the draw.
Title race
how the forecast moved · daily runs Jul 7 to Jul 14
Coloured lines: players who entered the daily top 5 of title probability at least once. A line ending in ✕ is an elimination. Grey lines are the best of the rest. Tap a player to isolate their line.
Data table: title probability by day
| Player | Jul 7 | Jul 8 | Jul 9 | Jul 10 | Jul 11 | Jul 12 | Jul 13 | Jul 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linda Noskova | 12.7% | 11.7% | 21.0% | 35.5% | 35.5% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Karolina Muchova | 9.0% | 20.1% | 18.4% | 64.4% | 64.4% | out | – | – |
| Coco Gauff | 20.8% | 43.6% | 41.0% | out | – | – | – | – |
| Jessica Pegula | 19.9% | out | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Marta Kostyuk | 11.4% | 10.7% | 19.6% | out | – | – | – | – |
| Naomi Osaka | 11.3% | out | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Jasmine Paolini | 8.1% | 7.6% | out | – | – | – | – | – |
How the race unfolded
Linda Noskova won Wimbledon 2026. On Jul 7, the opening run of the simulation, the favourite was Coco Gauff at 20.8%. Linda Noskova took the front on Jul 12 and kept it to the end, after the lead had changed hands 2 times. The sharpest fall: Coco Gauff, from 41.0% to out of the tournament on Jul 10.
Last open forecast (Jul 11)
- Karolina Muchova (10) 64.4%
- Linda Noskova (9) 35.5%
Forecasts come from the daily Monte Carlo run of the remaining draw (20,000 simulations on calibrated Elo and Glicko-2 ratings) and are stored when published, never rewritten. Methodology: how the simulations work · model transparency.
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The WTA title odds history dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/wta_tennis_tournament_simulations/wimbledon-2026">WTA title odds history by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)