Hamburg Hamburg, GER Clay Wta 250 Semifinals

Alina Charaeva vs Sinja Kraus: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Alina Charaeva

Rank: #117
53%
VS

Sinja Kraus

Rank: #80
47%
Expected Total Games: 23.6
Predicted Winner: Alina Charaeva

Why the Model Favors Alina Charaeva

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +2.8 Alina Charaeva
Surface fit +1.4 Sinja Kraus
Serve & return game +1.2 Alina Charaeva
Fatigue & recent workload +1.1 Sinja Kraus
Recent form +0.8 Alina Charaeva

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 53% for Alina Charaeva. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Alina Charaeva

  • Current #117 2026-07-20
  • 3 mo ago #129 2026-04-20
  • 6 mo ago #163 2026-01-19
  • 9 mo ago #150 2025-10-20
  • 12 mo ago #174 2025-07-21

Sinja Kraus

  • Current #80 2026-07-20
  • 3 mo ago #104 2026-04-20
  • 6 mo ago #106 2026-01-19
  • 9 mo ago #134 2025-10-20
  • 12 mo ago #146 2025-07-21

Player Metrics

Alina Charaeva

Form Index: 37.4
ELO Rating: 1582.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1654.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 180.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.1
Clay: 16.7
Grass: 10.4
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 91.6

Sinja Kraus

Form Index: 28.6
ELO Rating: 1575.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1635.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 114.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.1
Clay: 19.1
Grass: 9.2
Serve Rating: 94.5
Return Rating: 86.7

Recent Matches

Alina Charaeva
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Sinja Kraus
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alina Charaeva
vs
0
Sinja Kraus
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Semifinal duty in Hamburg on clay sets up a tight matchup between Alina Charaeva and Sinja Kraus at this 250-level event. The model narrowly favors Alina Charaeva to win (53.36%) over Sinja Kraus (46.64%), with a predicted total of about 23.7 games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Charaeva stems primarily from her recent record by level and her serve-and-return balance, while Kraus gains ground from slightly better clay fit and lower recent workload. Charaeva carries a higher Elo (1582.4 vs 1575.6) and a stronger form index (37.35 vs 28.57), reflecting deeper recent results; she also posted a notable three-set win in Hamburg over Sara Sorribes Tormo. Kraus, ranked 80 to Charaeva’s 117, shows a marginally better surface strength index on clay (19.13 vs 16.74) and has played less cumulative time this week (114 vs 180 minutes), which factors into the fatigue component favoring Kraus. Both players present similar serving profiles: mean serve indices are close (95.33 for Charaeva, 94.48 for Kraus) and returns are comparable as well, so there’s no dominant serving advantage on paper. Over their last three matches Charaeva is 2–1 with a long, taxing win in Hamburg and a straight-sets victory earlier in Iasi, while Kraus is 1–2 with her Hamburg win bookended by two defeats on grass. Those patterns support Charaeva’s slight edge in match-level performance and clutch moments.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.6 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alina Charaeva - Sinja Kraus) -0.0 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction is low: the match has a predicted aces total of about 4.04, consistent with clay's tendency to suppress free points. Expected double faults (7.89) are comparatively high, which aligns with the surface and the prospect of late-match fatigue; this is the double faults prediction that could swing short points. Neither player shows a significantly superior serve rating to boost the predicted aces markedly.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 4.0 Most likely: 4 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 7.9 Most likely: 7 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

21.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Alina Charaeva's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (31.2%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Charaeva’s narrow advantage is driven most strongly by recent record by level and a slightly better serve/return combination. Key to watch: whether Kraus’s fresher legs and marginally better clay index can offset Charaeva’s recent match toughness and momentum.

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