NBA Team Profiles
ELO rating trajectories back to 1996-97, Monte Carlo season forecasts and model predictability for all 30 NBA franchises.
| Team | Conf | ELO ▾ | ELO pos | Predictability | Winner acc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | East | 1738 | #1 | In line | 68.4% (95) |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | West | 1734 | #2 | On script | 78.9% (90) |
| San Antonio Spurs | West | 1713 | #3 | In line | 67.7% (99) |
| Detroit Pistons | East | 1637 | #4 | In line | 68.9% (90) |
| Boston Celtics | East | 1630 | #5 | In line | 59.8% (82) |
| Denver Nuggets | West | 1613 | #6 | Chaos team | 57.3% (82) |
| Charlotte Hornets | East | 1602 | #7 | In line | 65.3% (75) |
| Los Angeles Lakers | West | 1595 | #8 | In line | 62.4% (85) |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | East | 1588 | #9 | In line | 66.0% (94) |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | West | 1585 | #10 | In line | 63.6% (88) |
| Houston Rockets | West | 1580 | #11 | Chaos team | 61.0% (82) |
| Atlanta Hawks | East | 1554 | #12 | In line | 64.6% (82) |
| Orlando Magic | East | 1547 | #13 | In line | 69.5% (82) |
| Toronto Raptors | East | 1539 | #14 | In line | 68.7% (83) |
| Los Angeles Clippers | West | 1537 | #15 | In line | 64.5% (76) |
| Philadelphia 76ers | East | 1528 | #16 | In line | 69.0% (87) |
| Portland Trail Blazers | West | 1516 | #17 | In line | 65.4% (81) |
| Miami Heat | East | 1509 | #18 | In line | 58.7% (75) |
| Phoenix Suns | West | 1502 | #19 | In line | 65.8% (79) |
| Golden State Warriors | West | 1422 | #20 | In line | 58.7% (75) |
| New Orleans Pelicans | West | 1398 | #21 | In line | 71.0% (76) |
| Milwaukee Bucks | East | 1386 | #22 | In line | 61.8% (76) |
| Chicago Bulls | East | 1361 | #23 | Chaos team | 55.3% (76) |
| Dallas Mavericks | West | 1360 | #24 | In line | 72.0% (75) |
| Sacramento Kings | West | 1345 | #25 | In line | 77.3% (75) |
| Indiana Pacers | East | 1321 | #26 | In line | 76.3% (76) |
| Utah Jazz | West | 1304 | #27 | On script | 84.2% (76) |
| Memphis Grizzlies | West | 1301 | #28 | In line | 68.4% (76) |
| Brooklyn Nets | East | 1298 | #29 | On script | 73.7% (76) |
| Washington Wizards | East | 1255 | #30 | On script | 77.6% (76) |
ELO and position come from the last computed matchday of the 2025-26 season. The predictability tier grades how easy a team's results are to forecast: we score every published game prediction like a weather forecast (confident and right earns the best grade, confident and wrong the worst) and compare the team's season average with the league's. "On script" teams beat the league average clearly, "Chaos teams" defy it. Winner accuracy is the share of predicted games called correctly over the 2025-26 season (sample in brackets). Full methodology.