Euroleague Player Predictability Board

How predictable is each Euroleague starter? Before every game we project points, rebounds and PIR for the expected starting five. This board compares those projections with what each player actually produced over the 2025-26 season, for every starter with at least 15 starts. The score measures how much closer our projections get than a simple average of the player's recent games: the higher it is, the easier that player is to call in advance. The details are in how the score works.

Season 2025-26 season backtest
# Player Role Team Starts Score PTS MAEmodel / naive REB MAEmodel / naive PIR MAEmodel / naive AST MAEmodel / naive 3PM MAEmodel / naive
1 TJ Shorts Guard Panathinaikos Athens 15 18.9 5.73 / 6.1 1.11 / 1.27 8.57 / 8.67 2.21 / 2.35 0.61 / 0.5
2 Shaquille Harrison Forward ASVEL Villeurbanne 17 16.4 4.68 / 5.71 1.67 / 1.87 7.03 / 7.87 1.39 / 1.32 0.84 / 0.88
3 Matthew Strazel Guard AS Monaco 16 14.6 4.66 / 5.08 1.52 / 1.77 6.65 / 7.2 1.84 / 2.0 1.01 / 1.01
4 Gytis Radzevicius Guard Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz 24 13.2 3.17 / 3.33 1.72 / 1.73 4.16 / 4.7 0.71 / 0.62 0.69 / 0.76
5 Dylan Osetkowski Forward Partizan Belgrade 19 12.8 4.13 / 4.59 1.66 / 1.8 6.17 / 6.82 1.19 / 1.15 1.06 / 1.16
6 Mouhamet Diouf Center Virtus Bologna 19 12.6 3.63 / 4.13 2.85 / 3.08 4.55 / 5.87 0.92 / 0.99 0.03 / 0.0
7 Justus Hollatz Guard FC Bayern Munich 16 11.4 2.57 / 2.54 0.97 / 1.02 3.9 / 4.39 1.61 / 1.89 0.54 / 0.57
8 Kevin Punter Guard FC Barcelona 33 11.2 7.69 / 8.09 0.95 / 0.98 9.29 / 9.78 1.54 / 1.37 1.56 / 1.71
9 Nick Weiler-Babb Guard Anadolu Efes Istanbul 30 11.2 4.53 / 4.65 1.8 / 2.02 7.26 / 7.5 2.32 / 2.46 1.0 / 1.03
10 Shavon Shields Forward Olimpia Milano 29 9.8 6.1 / 6.33 1.58 / 1.7 7.99 / 8.35 1.12 / 1.1 1.38 / 1.45
11 Daniel Theis Center AS Monaco 30 9.7 3.6 / 4.02 1.68 / 1.78 5.13 / 5.87 0.77 / 0.76 0.55 / 0.54
12 Andreas Obst Guard FC Bayern Munich 23 9.6 6.34 / 6.95 0.98 / 1.08 7.43 / 8.09 1.29 / 1.42 1.62 / 1.84
13 Lonnie Walker IV Guard Maccabi Tel Aviv 22 9.6 6.68 / 7.09 1.61 / 1.68 7.25 / 7.52 1.51 / 1.52 1.55 / 1.61
14 McKinley Wright IV Guard Dubai Basketball 32 9.6 6.32 / 6.35 1.19 / 1.29 9.4 / 9.62 2.05 / 2.06 0.7 / 0.72
15 Arnas Butkevicius Forward Zalgiris Kaunas 22 9.1 3.99 / 4.28 2.02 / 1.94 5.78 / 6.07 1.12 / 1.17 0.85 / 1.0
16 Jordan Loyd Guard Anadolu Efes Istanbul 18 9.1 5.87 / 6.23 1.67 / 1.72 9.25 / 9.38 1.3 / 1.23 1.13 / 1.14
17 Mario Hezonja Forward Real Madrid 32 8.9 4.23 / 4.55 1.32 / 1.45 7.11 / 7.81 1.31 / 1.34 0.96 / 0.95
18 Kendrick Nunn Guard Panathinaikos Athens 27 8.5 5.47 / 5.62 1.37 / 1.5 7.98 / 8.39 1.41 / 1.48 0.97 / 1.01
19 Oscar Da Silva Forward FC Bayern Munich 17 8.4 3.73 / 3.79 1.93 / 2.13 5.4 / 5.84 0.99 / 1.06 0.17 / 0.1
20 Carsen Edwards Guard Virtus Bologna 29 8.2 7.12 / 7.42 1.18 / 1.16 9.43 / 9.22 1.09 / 1.1 1.56 / 1.48
21 Collin Malcolm Forward Hapoel Tel Aviv 28 8.1 3.98 / 4.06 2.05 / 2.1 6.45 / 6.63 1.15 / 1.1 0.61 / 0.66
22 Will Clyburn Forward FC Barcelona 23 8.0 6.04 / 6.35 2.02 / 2.0 8.3 / 8.55 1.02 / 1.1 1.38 / 1.44
23 Facundo Campazzo Guard Real Madrid 37 7.9 5.39 / 5.57 1.4 / 1.4 7.02 / 7.48 1.85 / 1.95 1.14 / 1.23
24 Jaron Blossomgame Forward AS Monaco 34 7.9 4.48 / 4.63 1.97 / 2.14 5.71 / 6.55 0.67 / 0.72 0.9 / 0.95
25 Sterling Brown Forward Partizan Belgrade 27 7.9 5.17 / 5.35 1.3 / 1.3 7.17 / 7.31 1.32 / 1.33 0.96 / 1.05
26 Glynn Watson Guard ASVEL Villeurbanne 16 7.7 5.42 / 5.55 1.11 / 1.22 7.42 / 7.95 2.13 / 2.14 1.05 / 1.04
27 Jimmy Clark III Guard Maccabi Tel Aviv 22 7.3 5.68 / 5.82 1.16 / 1.14 6.37 / 6.89 1.77 / 1.87 0.94 / 0.89
28 Azuolas Tubelis Forward Zalgiris Kaunas 35 7.1 5.27 / 5.51 1.74 / 1.8 6.7 / 6.92 0.69 / 0.71 0.82 / 0.87
29 Moses Wright Center Zalgiris Kaunas 28 7.1 4.35 / 4.45 2.34 / 2.58 7.68 / 8.45 0.84 / 0.84 0.42 / 0.41
30 Dwayne Bacon Forward Dubai Basketball 20 7.0 5.65 / 5.83 1.92 / 1.96 8.0 / 7.91 1.73 / 1.64 0.95 / 0.97
31 Rodions Kurucs Forward Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz 18 6.8 3.73 / 3.71 1.45 / 1.58 5.26 / 5.21 0.99 / 1.03 0.96 / 0.97
32 Cedi Osman Forward Panathinaikos Athens 30 6.6 5.84 / 6.05 1.41 / 1.35 8.46 / 8.65 0.94 / 0.92 0.96 / 1.03
33 Bruno Fernando Center Partizan Belgrade 22 6.5 3.92 / 4.11 2.0 / 2.13 7.36 / 6.98 0.68 / 0.69 0.13 / 0.08
34 Trent Forrest Guard Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz 19 6.5 5.75 / 6.01 1.57 / 1.44 9.03 / 9.3 1.38 / 1.5 0.68 / 0.7
35 Mfiondu Kabengele Center Dubai Basketball 29 6.3 5.01 / 5.11 2.39 / 2.62 7.66 / 7.77 1.11 / 1.16 0.72 / 0.7
36 Walter Tavares Center Real Madrid 33 6.1 4.52 / 4.5 2.5 / 2.7 6.11 / 6.34 0.7 / 0.62 0.02 / 0.0
37 Vasilije Micic Guard Hapoel Tel Aviv 32 6.0 4.97 / 5.1 1.57 / 1.59 7.32 / 7.35 1.81 / 1.88 0.93 / 0.89
38 Talen Horton Tucker Guard Fenerbahce Istanbul 29 5.6 4.69 / 5.0 1.56 / 1.59 6.81 / 6.86 1.17 / 1.23 0.98 / 0.81
39 Tomas Satoransky Guard FC Barcelona 28 5.5 3.75 / 3.92 1.66 / 1.68 6.19 / 6.56 1.5 / 1.47 0.97 / 1.01
40 Luca Vildoza Guard Virtus Bologna 19 5.4 3.74 / 4.05 1.33 / 1.32 6.82 / 6.78 1.78 / 1.79 0.93 / 0.98
41 Chima Moneke Forward Crvena Zvezda Belgrade 29 5.3 4.13 / 4.46 2.0 / 1.86 6.16 / 6.75 1.17 / 1.23 0.82 / 0.78
42 Nadir Hifi Guard Paris Basketball 15 5.3 4.77 / 5.29 1.44 / 1.44 5.49 / 6.29 1.62 / 1.73 1.04 / 1.04
43 Justin Robinson Guard Paris Basketball 17 4.9 5.28 / 5.63 1.34 / 1.23 8.85 / 8.86 2.03 / 2.16 1.18 / 1.3
44 Nigel Williams-Goss Guard Zalgiris Kaunas 23 4.7 5.88 / 5.79 1.28 / 1.33 7.39 / 7.48 1.88 / 1.88 0.81 / 0.85
45 Alpha Diallo Forward AS Monaco 36 4.6 4.2 / 4.49 1.65 / 1.7 5.21 / 5.59 1.2 / 1.19 0.91 / 0.94
46 Brancou Badio Guard Valencia Basket 22 4.4 4.58 / 4.87 1.7 / 1.64 6.28 / 6.44 1.55 / 1.63 1.03 / 1.0
47 Darius Thompson Guard Valencia Basket 18 4.2 5.19 / 5.38 1.41 / 1.25 7.81 / 8.0 1.28 / 1.45 1.01 / 1.04
48 Roman Sorkin Forward Maccabi Tel Aviv 30 4.2 5.02 / 5.11 1.96 / 2.0 7.08 / 7.11 1.45 / 1.55 0.77 / 0.84
49 Tarik Biberovic Forward Fenerbahce Istanbul 35 4.1 5.25 / 5.39 1.17 / 1.15 6.28 / 6.71 0.92 / 0.95 1.31 / 1.38
50 Elijah Bryant Guard Hapoel Tel Aviv 32 3.9 5.42 / 5.71 2.26 / 2.01 8.24 / 8.75 1.44 / 1.38 1.09 / 1.11
51 Sylvain Francisco Guard Zalgiris Kaunas 29 3.8 5.79 / 5.88 1.25 / 1.32 7.45 / 7.37 1.85 / 1.9 1.28 / 1.24
52 Jaime Pradilla Center Valencia Basket 29 3.6 3.62 / 3.72 1.86 / 1.87 4.66 / 4.93 0.77 / 0.78 0.55 / 0.6
53 PJ Dozier Guard Anadolu Efes Istanbul 15 3.6 4.21 / 4.15 1.2 / 1.29 6.28 / 6.3 1.35 / 1.36 1.02 / 0.99
54 Quinn Ellis Guard Olimpia Milano 29 3.6 3.36 / 3.51 1.44 / 1.41 4.24 / 5.0 1.89 / 1.81 0.87 / 0.87
55 Tyler Dorsey Guard Olympiacos Piraeus 36 3.6 5.99 / 6.06 1.44 / 1.46 8.3 / 7.92 1.36 / 1.38 1.44 / 1.42
56 Tornike Shengelia Center FC Barcelona 23 3.5 4.2 / 4.38 1.7 / 1.78 7.4 / 7.45 1.59 / 1.64 0.55 / 0.6
57 Thomas Walkup Guard Olympiacos Piraeus 34 3.4 3.82 / 3.4 1.32 / 1.26 5.43 / 5.71 1.92 / 2.04 0.89 / 0.92
58 Jan Vesely Center FC Barcelona 24 3.3 3.41 / 3.69 1.98 / 2.02 4.62 / 5.11 0.99 / 1.02 0.47 / 0.46
59 Isiaha Mike Forward FC Bayern Munich 19 3.2 5.67 / 5.45 1.46 / 1.48 8.08 / 7.42 0.86 / 0.92 1.04 / 0.88
60 Elie Okobo Guard AS Monaco 17 3.1 5.31 / 5.06 1.13 / 1.04 7.43 / 7.1 1.68 / 1.81 1.01 / 0.97
61 Filip Petrusev Center Dubai Basketball 27 3.0 4.21 / 4.12 1.9 / 1.91 7.3 / 7.43 1.1 / 1.1 0.51 / 0.49
62 Jordan Nwora Forward Crvena Zvezda Belgrade 24 2.4 5.59 / 5.74 1.66 / 1.58 6.2 / 6.37 1.25 / 1.18 1.2 / 1.2
63 Kameron Taylor Forward Valencia Basket 29 2.4 4.72 / 4.87 1.84 / 1.84 5.99 / 5.91 1.29 / 1.28 0.91 / 0.93
64 Kobi Simmons Guard Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz 17 1.7 3.15 / 3.43 1.19 / 1.3 4.03 / 4.34 1.2 / 1.41 0.8 / 0.8
65 Jared Rhoden Guard Paris Basketball 22 1.6 4.8 / 4.64 1.35 / 1.19 5.43 / 5.86 1.21 / 1.06 1.17 / 1.16
66 Codi Miller-McIntyre Guard Crvena Zvezda Belgrade 33 1.3 4.71 / 4.69 1.84 / 1.84 6.18 / 6.43 2.66 / 2.57 1.21 / 1.31
67 Devin Booker Center Olimpia Milano 19 1.1 3.98 / 3.93 1.9 / 1.91 6.81 / 6.38 1.02 / 0.99 0.72 / 0.67
68 Nathan Reuvers Forward Valencia Basket 16 1.1 5.04 / 5.44 1.72 / 1.31 4.97 / 5.48 0.81 / 0.42 0.65 / 0.74
69 Derrick Alston Jr. Forward Virtus Bologna 23 0.7 5.34 / 5.01 1.21 / 1.17 6.31 / 6.31 0.84 / 0.81 1.17 / 1.05
70 Ish Wainright Forward Hapoel Tel Aviv 30 0.7 3.17 / 3.17 1.38 / 1.42 5.86 / 4.8 1.07 / 1.13 1.09 / 0.98
71 Vladimir Lucic Forward FC Bayern Munich 27 0.7 3.9 / 3.63 1.56 / 1.61 6.49 / 6.14 1.21 / 1.27 0.63 / 0.68
72 Zachary Seljaas Center ASVEL Villeurbanne 15 0.6 3.58 / 3.48 1.72 / 1.9 4.04 / 4.47 0.92 / 0.93 0.89 / 0.89
73 Dan Oturu Center Hapoel Tel Aviv 36 0.5 5.63 / 5.7 2.67 / 2.33 7.03 / 7.22 0.78 / 0.83 0.03 / 0.0
74 Zach Leday Forward Olimpia Milano 27 0.5 4.15 / 4.15 1.36 / 1.43 5.66 / 5.75 1.19 / 1.01 1.0 / 0.93
75 Khem Birch Center Fenerbahce Istanbul 35 0.3 3.04 / 2.84 2.17 / 2.21 5.12 / 5.02 0.61 / 0.54 0.02 / 0.0
76 Ercan Osmani Forward Anadolu Efes Istanbul 28 0.0 3.83 / 3.9 2.03 / 2.06 5.82 / 5.66 1.33 / 1.29 0.78 / 0.84
77 Jean Montero Guard Valencia Basket 20 -0.2 3.97 / 4.05 1.63 / 1.71 6.44 / 6.29 2.58 / 2.5 0.95 / 0.97
78 Nicolo Melli Forward Fenerbahce Istanbul 26 -0.3 3.71 / 3.76 2.32 / 2.16 4.76 / 4.92 1.04 / 1.03 0.89 / 0.94
79 Isaac Bonga Forward Partizan Belgrade 25 -0.9 3.07 / 3.08 1.74 / 1.84 4.06 / 4.57 1.08 / 1.14 0.67 / 0.66
80 Mike James Guard AS Monaco 33 -1.6 4.99 / 5.18 1.36 / 1.32 5.79 / 5.73 1.78 / 1.66 1.02 / 1.03
81 Sasha Vezenkov Forward Olympiacos Piraeus 33 -1.9 4.77 / 4.55 1.76 / 1.9 7.22 / 6.86 0.99 / 1.01 1.17 / 1.22
82 Alberto Abalde Forward Real Madrid 36 -2.0 3.23 / 3.28 1.08 / 1.11 4.3 / 3.63 1.14 / 1.11 0.76 / 0.79
83 Khalifa Diop Center Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz 21 -2.1 3.19 / 2.56 1.97 / 2.05 4.73 / 4.38 0.59 / 0.62 0.01 / 0.0
84 David Lighty Forward ASVEL Villeurbanne 15 -2.5 3.2 / 2.7 1.34 / 1.34 4.79 / 3.76 0.84 / 0.87 0.73 / 0.7
85 Mouhamed Faye Center Paris Basketball 17 -2.8 2.76 / 2.36 1.65 / 1.77 4.47 / 4.6 0.57 / 0.42 0.02 / 0.0
86 Juancho Hernangomez Forward Panathinaikos Athens 22 -2.9 3.75 / 3.43 2.62 / 2.51 5.09 / 5.39 0.83 / 0.72 0.92 / 0.96
87 Bastien Vautier Center ASVEL Villeurbanne 15 -3.0 4.18 / 3.63 2.28 / 2.1 6.75 / 5.89 0.79 / 0.77 0.04 / 0.0
88 Chuma Okeke Center Real Madrid 30 -3.2 2.46 / 2.39 2.12 / 2.17 3.52 / 3.49 0.74 / 0.82 0.81 / 0.75
89 Jerian Grant Guard Panathinaikos Athens 28 -3.2 3.78 / 3.68 0.76 / 0.71 5.3 / 4.9 1.66 / 1.73 0.77 / 0.72
90 Devon Hall Guard Fenerbahce Istanbul 28 -4.0 3.83 / 3.53 1.25 / 1.32 5.2 / 4.34 1.29 / 1.31 0.9 / 0.78
91 Neal Sako Center Valencia Basket 22 -4.0 3.38 / 2.78 1.9 / 1.91 5.25 / 4.08 0.77 / 0.77 0.02 / 0.0
92 Nikola Milutinov Center Olympiacos Piraeus 34 -4.2 3.17 / 2.96 2.5 / 2.63 5.34 / 5.41 1.02 / 1.1 0.03 / 0.0
93 Nikola Kalinic Forward Crvena Zvezda Belgrade 19 -4.6 2.41 / 2.29 1.66 / 1.84 5.6 / 4.31 1.06 / 1.07 0.41 / 0.41
94 Kostas Papanikolaou Forward Olympiacos Piraeus 21 -5.0 3.26 / 3.3 1.0 / 1.1 4.93 / 3.6 1.11 / 1.08 0.84 / 0.87
95 Karim Jallow Forward Virtus Bologna 21 -6.6 4.03 / 3.7 2.35 / 2.49 5.76 / 4.26 1.0 / 0.9 0.55 / 0.43
96 William Rayman Forward Maccabi Tel Aviv 17 -10.5 3.65 / 3.14 1.16 / 0.99 5.19 / 3.74 0.75 / 0.54 0.78 / 0.83
97 Jaylen Hoard Forward Maccabi Tel Aviv 29 -13.4 4.44 / 4.06 2.14 / 1.7 5.5 / 5.29 0.98 / 0.99 0.68 / 0.56
98 Donatas Motiejunas Center Crvena Zvezda Belgrade 21 -29.1 3.38 / 2.74 1.66 / 0.95 4.86 / 4.4 0.45 / 0.41 0.33 / 0.33

Starts = games started (projections assume the starting five, so only those games count). MAE = mean absolute error per game, lower is better; the grey number is the naive rolling-average baseline on the same games. PIR is the Euroleague's own performance index rating, and it is the only stat here that can go negative. Tap any column header to sort.

How the score works

A high score does not mean a better player, it means a player whose production our models can call game by game. The score compares two forecasters on the games a player started: our model, which publishes a full probability distribution for his points, rebounds and PIR before tip-off, and a naive one that just averages his season and last-5 numbers. We measure both with CRPS, a standard score for probabilistic forecasts, and report how much better the model is, in percent. Positive means the model reads that player better than the rolling average; around zero means his games are hard to call for anyone. Assists and threes are published alongside but kept out of the score: the model wins on them league-wide with a thinner per-player majority than the three badge stats. The full write-up is in how the predictability score works.

Click any player for his game-by-game predicted vs actual profile with probability bands. Today's projections live on the Euroleague player projections page, team rating profiles on Euroleague team profiles, and how the models work on the methodology page.

Predixsport model outputs measured against the official Euroleague box scores. Not affiliated with Euroleague Basketball. Privacy policy.