Euroleague Player Predictability Board

How predictable is each Euroleague starter? Before every game we project points, rebounds and PIR for the expected starting five. This board compares those projections with what each player actually produced over the 2025-26 season, for every starter with at least 15 starts. The score measures how much closer our projections get than a simple average of the player's recent games: the higher it is, the easier that player is to call in advance. The details are in how the score works.

Season 2025-26 season backtest
# Player Pos Team Starts Score PTS MAEmodel / naive REB MAEmodel / naive PIR MAEmodel / naive AST MAEmodel / naive 3PM MAEmodel / naive
1 TJ Shorts PG Panathinaikos Athens 15 18.9 5.73 / 6.1 1.11 / 1.27 8.57 / 8.67 2.21 / 2.35 0.61 / 0.5
2 Shaquille Harrison PG ASVEL Villeurbanne 17 16.4 4.68 / 5.71 1.67 / 1.87 7.03 / 7.87 1.39 / 1.32 0.84 / 0.88
3 Matthew Strazel SG AS Monaco 16 14.6 4.66 / 5.08 1.52 / 1.77 6.65 / 7.2 1.84 / 2.0 1.01 / 1.01
4 Gytis Radzevicius SF Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz 24 13.2 3.17 / 3.33 1.72 / 1.73 4.16 / 4.7 0.71 / 0.62 0.69 / 0.76
5 Dylan Osetkowski SF Partizan Belgrade 19 12.8 4.13 / 4.59 1.66 / 1.8 6.17 / 6.82 1.19 / 1.15 1.06 / 1.16
6 Mouhamet Diouf C Virtus Bologna 19 12.6 3.63 / 4.13 2.85 / 3.08 4.55 / 5.87 0.92 / 0.99 0.03 / 0.0
7 Justus Hollatz SG FC Bayern Munich 16 11.4 2.57 / 2.54 0.97 / 1.02 3.9 / 4.39 1.61 / 1.89 0.54 / 0.57
8 Kevin Punter PG FC Barcelona 33 11.2 7.69 / 8.09 0.95 / 0.98 9.29 / 9.78 1.54 / 1.37 1.56 / 1.71
9 Nick Weiler-Babb SG Anadolu Efes Istanbul 30 11.2 4.53 / 4.65 1.8 / 2.02 7.26 / 7.5 2.32 / 2.46 1.0 / 1.03
10 Shavon Shields PF Olimpia Milano 29 9.8 6.1 / 6.33 1.58 / 1.7 7.99 / 8.35 1.12 / 1.1 1.38 / 1.45
11 Daniel Theis C AS Monaco 30 9.7 3.6 / 4.02 1.68 / 1.78 5.13 / 5.87 0.77 / 0.76 0.55 / 0.54
12 Andreas Obst PG FC Bayern Munich 23 9.6 6.34 / 6.95 0.98 / 1.08 7.43 / 8.09 1.29 / 1.42 1.62 / 1.84
13 Lonnie Walker IV PG Maccabi Tel Aviv 22 9.6 6.68 / 7.09 1.61 / 1.68 7.25 / 7.52 1.51 / 1.52 1.55 / 1.61
14 McKinley Wright IV SG Dubai Basketball 32 9.6 6.32 / 6.35 1.19 / 1.29 9.4 / 9.62 2.05 / 2.06 0.7 / 0.72
15 Arnas Butkevicius PF Zalgiris Kaunas 22 9.1 3.99 / 4.28 2.02 / 1.94 5.78 / 6.07 1.12 / 1.17 0.85 / 1.0
16 Jordan Loyd PG Anadolu Efes Istanbul 18 9.1 5.87 / 6.23 1.67 / 1.72 9.25 / 9.38 1.3 / 1.23 1.13 / 1.14
17 Mario Hezonja PF Real Madrid 32 8.9 4.23 / 4.55 1.32 / 1.45 7.11 / 7.81 1.31 / 1.34 0.96 / 0.95
18 Kendrick Nunn SG Panathinaikos Athens 27 8.5 5.47 / 5.62 1.37 / 1.5 7.98 / 8.39 1.41 / 1.48 0.97 / 1.01
19 Oscar Da Silva SF FC Bayern Munich 17 8.4 3.73 / 3.79 1.93 / 2.13 5.4 / 5.84 0.99 / 1.06 0.17 / 0.1
20 Carsen Edwards PG Virtus Bologna 29 8.2 7.12 / 7.42 1.18 / 1.16 9.43 / 9.22 1.09 / 1.1 1.56 / 1.48
21 Collin Malcolm SF Hapoel Tel Aviv 28 8.1 3.98 / 4.06 2.05 / 2.1 6.45 / 6.63 1.15 / 1.1 0.61 / 0.66
22 Will Clyburn SF FC Barcelona 23 8.0 6.04 / 6.35 2.02 / 2.0 8.3 / 8.55 1.02 / 1.1 1.38 / 1.44
23 Facundo Campazzo PG Real Madrid 37 7.9 5.39 / 5.57 1.4 / 1.4 7.02 / 7.48 1.85 / 1.95 1.14 / 1.23
24 Jaron Blossomgame PF AS Monaco 34 7.9 4.48 / 4.63 1.97 / 2.14 5.71 / 6.55 0.67 / 0.72 0.9 / 0.95
25 Sterling Brown SG Partizan Belgrade 27 7.9 5.17 / 5.35 1.3 / 1.3 7.17 / 7.31 1.32 / 1.33 0.96 / 1.05
26 Glynn Watson PG ASVEL Villeurbanne 16 7.7 5.42 / 5.55 1.11 / 1.22 7.42 / 7.95 2.13 / 2.14 1.05 / 1.04
27 Jimmy Clark III PG Maccabi Tel Aviv 22 7.3 5.68 / 5.82 1.16 / 1.14 6.37 / 6.89 1.77 / 1.87 0.94 / 0.89
28 Azuolas Tubelis SF Zalgiris Kaunas 35 7.1 5.27 / 5.51 1.74 / 1.8 6.7 / 6.92 0.69 / 0.71 0.82 / 0.87
29 Moses Wright C Zalgiris Kaunas 28 7.1 4.35 / 4.45 2.34 / 2.58 7.68 / 8.45 0.84 / 0.84 0.42 / 0.41
30 Dwayne Bacon SG Dubai Basketball 20 7.0 5.65 / 5.83 1.92 / 1.96 8.0 / 7.91 1.73 / 1.64 0.95 / 0.97
31 Rodions Kurucs PF Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz 18 6.8 3.73 / 3.71 1.45 / 1.58 5.26 / 5.21 0.99 / 1.03 0.96 / 0.97
32 Cedi Osman SF Panathinaikos Athens 30 6.6 5.84 / 6.05 1.41 / 1.35 8.46 / 8.65 0.94 / 0.92 0.96 / 1.03
33 Bruno Fernando C Partizan Belgrade 22 6.5 3.92 / 4.11 2.0 / 2.13 7.36 / 6.98 0.68 / 0.69 0.13 / 0.08
34 Trent Forrest SG Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz 19 6.5 5.75 / 6.01 1.57 / 1.44 9.03 / 9.3 1.38 / 1.5 0.68 / 0.7
35 Mfiondu Kabengele C Dubai Basketball 29 6.3 5.01 / 5.11 2.39 / 2.62 7.66 / 7.77 1.11 / 1.16 0.72 / 0.7
36 Walter Tavares C Real Madrid 33 6.1 4.52 / 4.5 2.5 / 2.7 6.11 / 6.34 0.7 / 0.62 0.02 / 0.0
37 Vasilije Micic SG Hapoel Tel Aviv 32 6.0 4.97 / 5.1 1.57 / 1.59 7.32 / 7.35 1.81 / 1.88 0.93 / 0.89
38 Talen Horton Tucker PG Fenerbahce Istanbul 29 5.6 4.69 / 5.0 1.56 / 1.59 6.81 / 6.86 1.17 / 1.23 0.98 / 0.81
39 Tomas Satoransky SG FC Barcelona 28 5.5 3.75 / 3.92 1.66 / 1.68 6.19 / 6.56 1.5 / 1.47 0.97 / 1.01
40 Luca Vildoza PG Virtus Bologna 19 5.4 3.74 / 4.05 1.33 / 1.32 6.82 / 6.78 1.78 / 1.79 0.93 / 0.98
41 Chima Moneke PF Crvena Zvezda Belgrade 29 5.3 4.13 / 4.46 2.0 / 1.86 6.16 / 6.75 1.17 / 1.23 0.82 / 0.78
42 Nadir Hifi PG Paris Basketball 15 5.3 4.77 / 5.29 1.44 / 1.44 5.49 / 6.29 1.62 / 1.73 1.04 / 1.04
43 Justin Robinson PG Paris Basketball 17 4.9 5.28 / 5.63 1.34 / 1.23 8.85 / 8.86 2.03 / 2.16 1.18 / 1.3
44 Nigel Williams-Goss PG Zalgiris Kaunas 23 4.7 5.88 / 5.79 1.28 / 1.33 7.39 / 7.48 1.88 / 1.88 0.81 / 0.85
45 Alpha Diallo PF AS Monaco 36 4.6 4.2 / 4.49 1.65 / 1.7 5.21 / 5.59 1.2 / 1.19 0.91 / 0.94
46 Brancou Badio PG Valencia Basket 22 4.4 4.58 / 4.87 1.7 / 1.64 6.28 / 6.44 1.55 / 1.63 1.03 / 1.0
47 Darius Thompson SG Valencia Basket 18 4.2 5.19 / 5.38 1.41 / 1.25 7.81 / 8.0 1.28 / 1.45 1.01 / 1.04
48 Roman Sorkin PF Maccabi Tel Aviv 30 4.2 5.02 / 5.11 1.96 / 2.0 7.08 / 7.11 1.45 / 1.55 0.77 / 0.84
49 Tarik Biberovic PF Fenerbahce Istanbul 35 4.1 5.25 / 5.39 1.17 / 1.15 6.28 / 6.71 0.92 / 0.95 1.31 / 1.38
50 Elijah Bryant PG Hapoel Tel Aviv 32 3.9 5.42 / 5.71 2.26 / 2.01 8.24 / 8.75 1.44 / 1.38 1.09 / 1.11
51 Sylvain Francisco SG Zalgiris Kaunas 29 3.8 5.79 / 5.88 1.25 / 1.32 7.45 / 7.37 1.85 / 1.9 1.28 / 1.24
52 Jaime Pradilla C Valencia Basket 29 3.6 3.62 / 3.72 1.86 / 1.87 4.66 / 4.93 0.77 / 0.78 0.55 / 0.6
53 PJ Dozier SG Anadolu Efes Istanbul 15 3.6 4.21 / 4.15 1.2 / 1.29 6.28 / 6.3 1.35 / 1.36 1.02 / 0.99
54 Quinn Ellis PG Olimpia Milano 29 3.6 3.36 / 3.51 1.44 / 1.41 4.24 / 5.0 1.89 / 1.81 0.87 / 0.87
55 Tyler Dorsey SG Olympiacos Piraeus 36 3.6 5.99 / 6.06 1.44 / 1.46 8.3 / 7.92 1.36 / 1.38 1.44 / 1.42
56 Tornike Shengelia C FC Barcelona 23 3.5 4.2 / 4.38 1.7 / 1.78 7.4 / 7.45 1.59 / 1.64 0.55 / 0.6
57 Thomas Walkup PG Olympiacos Piraeus 34 3.4 3.82 / 3.4 1.32 / 1.26 5.43 / 5.71 1.92 / 2.04 0.89 / 0.92
58 Jan Vesely PF FC Barcelona 24 3.3 3.41 / 3.69 1.98 / 2.02 4.62 / 5.11 0.99 / 1.02 0.47 / 0.46
59 Isiaha Mike PF FC Bayern Munich 19 3.2 5.67 / 5.45 1.46 / 1.48 8.08 / 7.42 0.86 / 0.92 1.04 / 0.88
60 Elie Okobo PG AS Monaco 17 3.1 5.31 / 5.06 1.13 / 1.04 7.43 / 7.1 1.68 / 1.81 1.01 / 0.97
61 Filip Petrusev C Dubai Basketball 27 3.0 4.21 / 4.12 1.9 / 1.91 7.3 / 7.43 1.1 / 1.1 0.51 / 0.49
62 Jordan Nwora SF Crvena Zvezda Belgrade 24 2.4 5.59 / 5.74 1.66 / 1.58 6.2 / 6.37 1.25 / 1.18 1.2 / 1.2
63 Kameron Taylor SF Valencia Basket 29 2.4 4.72 / 4.87 1.84 / 1.84 5.99 / 5.91 1.29 / 1.28 0.91 / 0.93
64 Kobi Simmons PG Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz 17 1.7 3.15 / 3.43 1.19 / 1.3 4.03 / 4.34 1.2 / 1.41 0.8 / 0.8
65 Jared Rhoden SG Paris Basketball 22 1.6 4.8 / 4.64 1.35 / 1.19 5.43 / 5.86 1.21 / 1.06 1.17 / 1.16
66 Codi Miller-McIntyre PG Crvena Zvezda Belgrade 33 1.3 4.71 / 4.69 1.84 / 1.84 6.18 / 6.43 2.66 / 2.57 1.21 / 1.31
67 Devin Booker C Olimpia Milano 19 1.1 3.98 / 3.93 1.9 / 1.91 6.81 / 6.38 1.02 / 0.99 0.72 / 0.67
68 Nathan Reuvers PF Valencia Basket 16 1.1 5.04 / 5.44 1.72 / 1.31 4.97 / 5.48 0.81 / 0.42 0.65 / 0.74
69 Derrick Alston Jr. PF Virtus Bologna 23 0.7 5.34 / 5.01 1.21 / 1.17 6.31 / 6.31 0.84 / 0.81 1.17 / 1.05
70 Ish Wainright PF Hapoel Tel Aviv 30 0.7 3.17 / 3.17 1.38 / 1.42 5.86 / 4.8 1.07 / 1.13 1.09 / 0.98
71 Vladimir Lucic PF FC Bayern Munich 27 0.7 3.9 / 3.63 1.56 / 1.61 6.49 / 6.14 1.21 / 1.27 0.63 / 0.68
72 Zachary Seljaas C ASVEL Villeurbanne 15 0.6 3.58 / 3.48 1.72 / 1.9 4.04 / 4.47 0.92 / 0.93 0.89 / 0.89
73 Dan Oturu C Hapoel Tel Aviv 36 0.5 5.63 / 5.7 2.67 / 2.33 7.03 / 7.22 0.78 / 0.83 0.03 / 0.0
74 Zach Leday SF Olimpia Milano 27 0.5 4.15 / 4.15 1.36 / 1.43 5.66 / 5.75 1.19 / 1.01 1.0 / 0.93
75 Khem Birch C Fenerbahce Istanbul 35 0.3 3.04 / 2.84 2.17 / 2.21 5.12 / 5.02 0.61 / 0.54 0.02 / 0.0
76 Ercan Osmani SF Anadolu Efes Istanbul 28 0.0 3.83 / 3.9 2.03 / 2.06 5.82 / 5.66 1.33 / 1.29 0.78 / 0.84
77 Jean Montero SG Valencia Basket 20 -0.2 3.97 / 4.05 1.63 / 1.71 6.44 / 6.29 2.58 / 2.5 0.95 / 0.97
78 Nicolo Melli SF Fenerbahce Istanbul 26 -0.3 3.71 / 3.76 2.32 / 2.16 4.76 / 4.92 1.04 / 1.03 0.89 / 0.94
79 Isaac Bonga PF Partizan Belgrade 25 -0.9 3.07 / 3.08 1.74 / 1.84 4.06 / 4.57 1.08 / 1.14 0.67 / 0.66
80 Mike James SF AS Monaco 33 -1.6 4.99 / 5.18 1.36 / 1.32 5.79 / 5.73 1.78 / 1.66 1.02 / 1.03
81 Sasha Vezenkov SF Olympiacos Piraeus 33 -1.9 4.77 / 4.55 1.76 / 1.9 7.22 / 6.86 0.99 / 1.01 1.17 / 1.22
82 Alberto Abalde SF Real Madrid 36 -2.0 3.23 / 3.28 1.08 / 1.11 4.3 / 3.63 1.14 / 1.11 0.76 / 0.79
83 Khalifa Diop C Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz 21 -2.1 3.19 / 2.56 1.97 / 2.05 4.73 / 4.38 0.59 / 0.62 0.01 / 0.0
84 David Lighty SF ASVEL Villeurbanne 15 -2.5 3.2 / 2.7 1.34 / 1.34 4.79 / 3.76 0.84 / 0.87 0.73 / 0.7
85 Mouhamed Faye C Paris Basketball 17 -2.8 2.76 / 2.36 1.65 / 1.77 4.47 / 4.6 0.57 / 0.42 0.02 / 0.0
86 Juancho Hernangomez PF Panathinaikos Athens 22 -2.9 3.75 / 3.43 2.62 / 2.51 5.09 / 5.39 0.83 / 0.72 0.92 / 0.96
87 Bastien Vautier C ASVEL Villeurbanne 15 -3.0 4.18 / 3.63 2.28 / 2.1 6.75 / 5.89 0.79 / 0.77 0.04 / 0.0
88 Chuma Okeke C Real Madrid 30 -3.2 2.46 / 2.39 2.12 / 2.17 3.52 / 3.49 0.74 / 0.82 0.81 / 0.75
89 Jerian Grant PG Panathinaikos Athens 28 -3.2 3.78 / 3.68 0.76 / 0.71 5.3 / 4.9 1.66 / 1.73 0.77 / 0.72
90 Devon Hall SG Fenerbahce Istanbul 28 -4.0 3.83 / 3.53 1.25 / 1.32 5.2 / 4.34 1.29 / 1.31 0.9 / 0.78
91 Neal Sako PF Valencia Basket 22 -4.0 3.38 / 2.78 1.9 / 1.91 5.25 / 4.08 0.77 / 0.77 0.02 / 0.0
92 Nikola Milutinov C Olympiacos Piraeus 34 -4.2 3.17 / 2.96 2.5 / 2.63 5.34 / 5.41 1.02 / 1.1 0.03 / 0.0
93 Nikola Kalinic SG Crvena Zvezda Belgrade 19 -4.6 2.41 / 2.29 1.66 / 1.84 5.6 / 4.31 1.06 / 1.07 0.41 / 0.41
94 Kostas Papanikolaou PF Olympiacos Piraeus 21 -5.0 3.26 / 3.3 1.0 / 1.1 4.93 / 3.6 1.11 / 1.08 0.84 / 0.87
95 Karim Jallow PF Virtus Bologna 21 -6.6 4.03 / 3.7 2.35 / 2.49 5.76 / 4.26 1.0 / 0.9 0.55 / 0.43
96 William Rayman C Maccabi Tel Aviv 17 -10.5 3.65 / 3.14 1.16 / 0.99 5.19 / 3.74 0.75 / 0.54 0.78 / 0.83
97 Jaylen Hoard SF Maccabi Tel Aviv 29 -13.4 4.44 / 4.06 2.14 / 1.7 5.5 / 5.29 0.98 / 0.99 0.68 / 0.56
98 Donatas Motiejunas C Crvena Zvezda Belgrade 21 -29.1 3.38 / 2.74 1.66 / 0.95 4.86 / 4.4 0.45 / 0.41 0.33 / 0.33

Starts = games started (projections assume the starting five, so only those games count). MAE = mean absolute error per game, lower is better; the grey number is the naive rolling-average baseline on the same games. PIR is the Euroleague's own performance index rating, and it is the only stat here that can go negative. Tap any column header to sort.

How the score works

A high score does not mean a better player, it means a player whose production our models can call game by game. The score compares two forecasters on the games a player started: our model, which publishes a full probability distribution for his points, rebounds and PIR before tip-off, and a naive one that just averages his season and last-5 numbers. We measure both with CRPS, a standard score for probabilistic forecasts, and report how much better the model is, in percent. Positive means the model reads that player better than the rolling average; around zero means his games are hard to call for anyone. Assists and threes are published alongside but kept out of the score: the model wins on them league-wide with a thinner per-player majority than the three badge stats. The full write-up is in how the predictability score works.

Click any player for his game-by-game predicted vs actual profile with probability bands. Today's projections live on the Euroleague player projections page, team rating profiles on Euroleague team profiles, and how the models work on the methodology page.