Washington DC, U.S.A. Hard Atp 500 Semifinals

Corentin Moutet vs Alex de Minaur Prediction

Corentin Moutet

Rank: #59
35%
VS

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #13
65%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Alex de Minaur

Player Metrics

Corentin Moutet

Form Index: 54.3
ELO Rating: 1275.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1636.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 554.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.4
Clay: 9.3
Grass: 8.3
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 88.5

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 73.2
ELO Rating: 2797.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1791.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 369.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.1
Clay: 27.1
Grass: 28.5
Serve Rating: 94.4
Return Rating: 88.3

Recent Matches

Corentin Moutet

  • Last Match: vs Daniil Medvedev (2-1) hard Washington 145 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Daniel Evans (2-0) hard Washington 100 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Alexandre Muller (1-0) hard Washington 57 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Yibing Wu (1-2) hard Washington 167 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Karue Sell (2-0) hard Washington 85 min

Alex de Minaur

  • Last Match: vs Brandon Nakashima (2-0) hard Washington 95 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Jiri Lehecka (2-1) hard Washington 165 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Yunchaokete Bu (2-0) hard Washington 109 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Novak Djokovic (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs August Holmgren (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Corentin Moutet
vs
0
Alex de Minaur
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The semifinal match at the Washington tournament features Corentin Moutet and Alex de Minaur. The match will take place on hard court, and the stakes are high as both players vie for a place in the finals. Alex de Minaur is predicted to win with a probability of 64.80%, while Corentin Moutet has a 35.20% chance of victory. The match is expected to see a total of 22 games played.

Match Analysis

Corentin Moutet, currently ranked 59, has a form index of 54.32 and an Elo rating of 1275.09. His cumulative fatigue from the tournament stands at 554 minutes, indicating he has spent significant time on court. His surface strength index of 9.43 suggests he is less effective on hard courts compared to his opponent. In contrast, Alex de Minaur, ranked 13, boasts a much stronger form index of 73.16 and an Elo rating of 2797.06. With a lower fatigue level of 369 minutes and a surface strength index of 22.14, de Minaur demonstrates a more favorable profile on hard courts. Notably, Moutet's mean serve index of 96.31 surpasses de Minaur's 94.43 by more than 5 points, while their mean return indices are closely matched, with Moutet at 88.52 and de Minaur at 88.34. In their recent matches, Moutet has shown resilience, winning two out of his last three matches, with a notable victory over Daniil Medvedev in a three-set encounter. However, de Minaur has been in formidable form, winning all three of his last matches without dropping a set, including a convincing victory against Brandon Nakashima. This recent form further solidifies his position as the favorite going into this semifinal.

Final Prediction

Alex de Minaur's higher ranking, superior form index, and lower fatigue level give him a significant edge in this match. Additionally, his ability to maintain a strong performance without losing sets in recent outings highlights his current dominance. The key factor to watch will be Moutet's serve, as he needs to utilize his strong serving capabilities effectively to challenge de Minaur's solid baseline game.