Kamilla Rakhimova vs Venus Williams: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Rakhimova is driven primarily by overall strength (+8.3 percentage points) and a superior serve & return profile (+5.8 points). That shows up in the raw numbers: Rakhimova’s Elo sits at 1573.9 and her rank is 82, compared with Venus’s Elo of 1378.4 and rank of 469. Rakhimova also posts a higher form index (23.31 vs 7.26) and both players report zero tournament fatigue heading into the final. On the serve/return side, the mean serve indices are very close (94.47 for Rakhimova, 93.13 for Venus), so the real advantage comes on returns—Rakhimova’s mean return index (92.36) is notably higher than Venus’s (83.44), a gap greater than five points that favors Rakhimova’s ability to pressure service games. Surface-fit is an interesting counterweight: the explainability output grants Venus +7.2 points for surface fit, despite the supplied surface strength index favoring Rakhimova (22.28 vs 0.00). That suggests the model factors beyond this single index when evaluating how each player’s game translates to hard courts. Recent form by level also nudges Rakhimova ahead (+3.4), reflected in her one win and two competitive losses in the last three matches versus Venus’s three losses across her last three outings. The model also credits age (+3.3 toward Rakhimova), though specific ages were not provided in the data.