Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Quarterfinals

Holger Rune vs Valentin Vacherot Prediction

Holger Rune

Rank: #11
67%
VS

Valentin Vacherot

Rank: #204
33%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Holger Rune

Ranking Trends

Holger Rune

  • Current Rank: #11 (2025-09-29)
  • 3 Months Ago: #8 (2025-06-30)
  • 6 Months Ago: #12 (2025-03-31)
  • 9 Months Ago: #13 (2024-12-30)
  • 12 Months Ago: #14 (2024-09-30)

Valentin Vacherot

  • Current Rank: #204 (2025-09-29)
  • 3 Months Ago: #261 (2025-06-30)
  • 6 Months Ago: #259 (2025-03-31)
  • 9 Months Ago: #140 (2024-12-30)
  • 12 Months Ago: #115 (2024-09-30)

Player Metrics

Holger Rune

Form Index: 60.0
ELO Rating: 1822.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1820.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.8
Clay: 20.6
Grass: 21.7
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 85.0

Valentin Vacherot

Form Index: 61.7
ELO Rating: 719.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1576.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 707.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.7
Clay: 4.5
Grass: 3.3
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 85.9

Recent Matches

Holger Rune
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (2-1) hard Shanghai 148 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Ugo Humbert (2-0) hard Shanghai 94 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Baez (2-0) hard Shanghai 106 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jenson Brooksby (0-2) hard Tokio 90 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Ethan Quinn (2-0) hard Tokio 73 min

Valentin Vacherot
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Tallon Griekspoor (2-1) hard Shanghai 142 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Machac (1-0) hard Shanghai 53 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Bublik (2-1) hard Shanghai 109 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Laslo Djere (2-0) hard Shanghai 84 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Liam Draxl (2-1) hard Shanghai 168 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Holger Rune
vs
0
Valentin Vacherot
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The quarterfinals of the Shanghai Masters 1000 tournament are set to feature an exciting match between Holger Rune and Valentin Vacherot on hard court. With Holger Rune ranked 11th and holding a 66.73% probability of winning, he is favored to advance against Vacherot, who comes in with a 33.27% chance. The predicted total number of games played in this matchup is set at 23.0.

Match Analysis

Holger Rune enters the match with a significantly higher ranking at 11 compared to Valentin Vacherot's rank of 204. Rune’s form index is at 60.02, while Vacherot's is slightly higher at 61.68, suggesting that both players are in decent form. However, Rune's Elo rating of 1822.61 far surpasses Vacherot's 719.54, indicating a clear disparity in overall tennis prowess. Rune's cumulative fatigue stands at 348 minutes, less than Vacherot's 707 minutes, suggesting that Vacherot may be more fatigued heading into this contest. Additionally, Rune boasts a surface strength index of 14.79, while Vacherot's is only 5.66, further emphasizing Rune's advantage on hard courts. In their recent performances, Rune has demonstrated dominance, winning all three of his last matches, including a 2-1 victory against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard most recently. Vacherot, on the other hand, has also shown resilience with three consecutive wins, including a notable victory against Tallon Griekspoor. Despite this, Rune's consistency and ability to secure straight-set victories, as seen in his last two matches, suggest he is better positioned for success in this quarterfinal.

Final Prediction

Rune's superior ranking, Elo rating, and recent form provide him with a clear advantage over Vacherot in this matchup. A key factor to watch will be Rune's serve, as his mean serve index of 96.85 could play a decisive role in breaking Vacherot's defenses and controlling the pace of the match.