Sebastian Baez

ATP ELO profile · tour-level matches since 2015

ELO 1605 · #99 Hard #97 Clay #85 Grass #122 Last match: Aug 30, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per match: the player's ELO rating after that match, matches in round order. Ratings are season-scoped: every January the engine re-seeds each player from ATP entry points, then updates after every result. That is why trajectories are shown one season at a time. Hover a point for the match behind it.

Career record

127-122 51.0% in 249 matches

Clay 99-61
Grass 2-9
Hard 26-52

Season by season

SeasonMW-LStartPeakEnd
2026 43 22-21 1614 1719 1605
2025 41 17-24 1669 1741 1504
2024 53 28-25 1644 1819 1587
2023 47 24-23 1599 1730 1667
2022 52 29-23 1576 1822 1668
2021 13 7-6 1515 1563 1514

Recent matches

WeekTournamentOpponentResult
Aug 30, 2026 Us Open · Hard Brandon Nakashima L 0-3
Aug 23, 2026 Winston Salem · Hard Juan Manuel Cerundolo L 0-1
Hugo Grenier W 2-0
Aug 13, 2026 Cincinnati · Hard Learner Tien L 0-2
Grigor Dimitrov W 2-1
Aug 02, 2026 Toronto · Hard Zizou Bergs L 1-2
Mattia Bellucci W 2-0
Jul 20, 2026 Kitzbuhel · Clay Yannick Hanfmann L 0-2
Arthur Rinderknech W 2-1
Miomir Kecmanovic W 2-1

Serve predictions: how close do we get on Sebastian Baez?

2025 · out-of-sample backtest Aces per match: 1.7 actual vs 2.3 projected
1.59 our average miss per match
1.54 baseline average miss (last five matches)
-3% accuracy edge over the baseline

Comparison covers 36 of the 41 aces projections we made in 2025. A match needs five earlier matches on record before the baseline exists.

The baseline predicts a player's aces as the average of their last five matches. Our model beats it when its projections land closer to what actually happened. Both numbers are the average miss per match, so lower is better, and both are for the selected season only.

Predictability: does Sebastian Baez follow the script?

On serve · 2026
SeasonMW-LModel hitUpsetsVerdict
2026 42 21-21 59.5% 17 vs 16.1 exp On serve
2025 41 17-24 58.5% 17 vs 17.3 exp On serve
2024 bt 53 28-25 77.4% 12 vs 20.3 exp Straight sets

An upset = our model's favorite losing. "Upsets" compares how many actually happened in Sebastian Baez's matches with how many the model expected for that exact schedule. A season-level read (a wild-card season does not carry over year to year). How to read this · full board: most predictable ATP players.

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/tennis-power-rankings/sebastian-baez">ATP ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)