Champions League · 2026-27
Champions League predictions
Win, draw and loss probabilities for every tournament match, from a Poisson-goals model built on a European rating ladder. Each card shows what is driving the call, in probability points.
Predictions start with the league phase
There are no Champions League matches to predict right now. Coverage runs from the opening league-phase round through the knockout play-off and the last 16 to the final in May, every tournament match, each one published days ahead of kick-off.
The league-phase draw lands in late August and the opening matchday follows in mid-September. Cards appear about a week ahead of each fixture.
In the meantime, the whole 2026-27 season is already simulated: title odds and knockout probabilities.
The competition, 2016-17 to 2025-26
How 1372 tournament matches actually finished, in regular time. This is the competition itself, not our model: it is the ground the probabilities on this page are measured against.
Home, draw, away
- Home win
- Draw
- Away win
Across the decade 46.5% of matches ended in a home win, 33.6% away and 19.9% drawn. The draw is the rarest of the three, and the hardest of the three to call.
Goals per match
Bars run from zero to 4.0 goals, and the dashed line is the decade average of 3.12. The last two seasons are the 36-club league phase, 189 matches a season instead of 125, and the two highest goal counts of the decade.
What the model reads
A European rating ladder walked over Champions League and Europa League matches, each club's recent scoring and conceding rates in Europe, its domestic league standing, and home advantage. Those five things are exactly the factors shown on each card.
What it covers
Every match of the tournament proper, from the opening league phase round through to the final in May, each one published days ahead of kick-off.
How should I read a probability here?
As a long-run frequency. If the model says 62%, then across the matches where it says 62%, the home side should win about 62 of every 100. A 62% call that loses is not a wrong call, it is one of the 38.
What are the goal numbers on a match page?
The model works by first estimating how often each side scores, then turning those scoring rates into the result probabilities above. The rates are shown so you can see which side is expected to create more. Read them as that comparison, not as a score prediction: the numbers sit lower than real goal counts.
When do predictions appear?
Cards are published as soon as a tournament fixture is inside the next week and are re-scored daily as new results move the ratings. At kick-off the number is frozen, and the match page then shows it next to what actually happened.
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Champions League match predictions dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/champions_league_predictions">Champions League match predictions by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)