Champions League Player Predictability
How predictable is each Champions League player? Before every match our models publish a full probability distribution for how many shots and shots on target each player will take. This board compares those distributions with what actually happened across the 2025-26 campaign, for every player who started at least 8 matches, a full league phase. The score measures how much closer our distributions get than a baseline that knows only the player's position and his expected minutes. Higher means easier to call in advance.
| # | Player | Role | Club | Starts | Score | Shots skill | On target skill | Scorer skill | Shots / match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jerdy Schouten | Midfielder | PSV | 8 | +73.3 ±5.9 | +65.5% | +81.0% | +56.1% | 0.12 |
| 2 | Koke | Midfielder | Atleti | 11 | +61.5 ±4.8 | +43.8% | +79.1% | +77.1% | 0.18 |
| 3 | Kieran Trippier | Defender | Newcastle | 9 | +58.7 ±3.6 | +52.4% | +65.0% | +81.3% | 0.00 |
| 4 | Youri Baas | Defender | Ajax | 8 | +55.4 ±13.1 | +33.3% | +77.4% | +79.5% | 0.12 |
| 5 | Francisco Ortega | Defender | Olympiacos | 10 | +54.5 ±16.1 | +17.7% | +91.3% | +84.0% | 0.20 |
| 6 | Robin Koch | Defender | Frankfurt | 8 | +50.2 ±16.3 | +13.5% | +86.9% | +50.7% | 0.25 |
| 7 | Fredrik Sjøvold | Midfielder | Bodø/Glimt | 12 | +47.5 ±26.4 | +50.4% | +44.6% | -4.1% | 0.33 |
| 8 | William Saliba | Defender | Arsenal | 12 | +47.1 ±8.7 | +12.9% | +81.4% | +27.5% | 0.25 |
| 9 | Konrad Laimer | Midfielder | Bayern München | 10 | +46.0 ±6.7 | +26.2% | +65.8% | +47.1% | 0.50 |
| 10 | Kylian Mbappé | Forward | Real Madrid | 10 | +44.4 ±4.9 | +46.8% | +42.0% | +33.4% | 5.50 |
| 11 | Nathaniel Brown | Defender | Frankfurt | 8 | +44.1 ±9.4 | +14.2% | +74.0% | +22.6% | 0.25 |
| 12 | Pêpê | Midfielder | Pafos | 8 | +43.1 ±6.7 | +33.1% | +53.1% | +48.0% | 0.38 |
| 13 | Marten de Roon | Midfielder | Atalanta | 10 | +42.6 ±22.1 | +47.8% | +37.4% | +77.3% | 0.30 |
| 14 | Christian Burgess | Defender | Union SG | 8 | +41.6 ±12.5 | +12.5% | +70.7% | +41.6% | 0.25 |
| 15 | Alejandro Grimaldo | Defender | Leverkusen | 12 | +40.5 ±8.1 | +45.2% | +35.7% | +9.2% | 1.67 |
| 16 | Fredrik André Bjørkan | Defender | Bodø/Glimt | 10 | +39.4 ±15.1 | +24.5% | +54.3% | +66.5% | 0.20 |
| 17 | Michael Olise | Midfielder | Bayern München | 12 | +39.0 ±7.3 | +51.6% | +26.5% | +7.8% | 3.50 |
| 18 | Harry Kane | Forward | Bayern München | 12 | +37.1 ±9.9 | +41.9% | +32.4% | +43.3% | 3.67 |
| 19 | Myles Lewis-Skelly | Midfielder | Arsenal | 8 | +36.8 ±9.4 | +26.6% | +47.0% | +12.3% | 0.50 |
| 20 | Ole Didrik Blomberg | Forward | Bodø/Glimt | 8 | +35.8 ±14.8 | +51.9% | +19.7% | -2.1% | 0.50 |
| 21 | Martin Zubimendi | Midfielder | Arsenal | 11 | +35.7 ±12.1 | +40.2% | +31.3% | +50.5% | 0.09 |
| 22 | Joaquin Seys | Midfielder | Club Brugge | 8 | +34.2 ±11.0 | +52.5% | +15.9% | +20.7% | 0.25 |
| 23 | Federico Dimarco | Defender | Inter | 8 | +33.0 ±5.4 | +36.7% | +29.3% | -3.9% | 3.12 |
| 24 | Santiago Hezze | Midfielder | Olympiacos | 8 | +33.0 ±22.9 | +40.3% | +25.7% | -2.7% | 0.38 |
| 25 | Lorenzo Pirola | Defender | Olympiacos | 10 | +31.5 ±9.2 | +5.0% | +57.9% | +77.9% | 0.20 |
| 26 | Pedro Bicalho | Midfielder | Qarabağ | 10 | +31.1 ±23.8 | +21.4% | +40.7% | +71.8% | 0.70 |
| 27 | Hans Vanaken | Midfielder | Club Brugge | 10 | +27.4 ±9.1 | +35.8% | +19.1% | +12.1% | 0.40 |
| 28 | Achraf Hakimi | Defender | Paris | 13 | +26.8 ±13.4 | +28.0% | +25.5% | +1.4% | 1.46 |
| 29 | Ernest Poku | Forward | Leverkusen | 8 | +26.0 ±8.8 | +23.8% | +28.3% | +61.2% | 1.00 |
| 30 | Gabriel Pereira | Defender | Copenhagen | 8 | +25.7 ±7.4 | +5.3% | +46.1% | -54.1% | 0.75 |
| 31 | Lorenzo Bernasconi | Defender | Atalanta | 9 | +25.7 ±10.3 | -4.3% | +55.7% | -6.1% | 0.44 |
| 32 | Matteo Ruggeri | Defender | Atleti | 12 | +25.6 ±9.6 | +9.3% | +42.0% | -39.5% | 0.25 |
| 33 | Lamine Yamal | Forward | Barcelona | 10 | +24.3 ±14.0 | +31.2% | +17.3% | +6.0% | 3.50 |
| 34 | Florian Wirtz | Midfielder | Liverpool | 10 | +23.2 ±18.3 | +27.3% | +19.2% | -14.3% | 2.00 |
| 35 | Hugo Ekitiké | Forward | Liverpool | 10 | +21.8 ±10.6 | +26.6% | +17.0% | +11.6% | 3.10 |
| 36 | Dominik Szoboszlai | Midfielder | Liverpool | 12 | +21.6 ±8.9 | +26.0% | +17.2% | +10.8% | 2.50 |
| 37 | Lucas Torreira | Midfielder | Galatasaray | 11 | +21.2 ±26.6 | +4.3% | +38.0% | +91.0% | 0.82 |
| 38 | Roland Sallai | Forward | Galatasaray | 10 | +21.1 ±11.3 | +23.3% | +18.9% | +50.9% | 0.60 |
| 39 | Anan Khalaili | Forward | Union SG | 8 | +20.4 ±24.9 | +30.9% | +9.9% | -4.0% | 1.25 |
| 40 | Davide Zappacosta | Defender | Atalanta | 8 | +20.2 ±16.2 | +37.7% | +2.8% | -2.5% | 1.38 |
| 41 | Robert Lewandowski | Forward | Barcelona | 8 | +19.1 ±15.0 | +16.4% | +21.7% | +18.4% | 2.75 |
| 42 | Bahlul Mustafazade | Defender | Qarabağ | 9 | +18.2 ±18.7 | +37.9% | -1.5% | -1.6% | 0.11 |
| 43 | Barış Alper Yılmaz | Forward | Galatasaray | 11 | +18.2 ±12.1 | +21.1% | +15.3% | +19.2% | 1.18 |
| 44 | Kevin Medina | Defender | Qarabağ | 10 | +18.1 ±8.6 | +5.2% | +31.0% | +1.0% | 0.30 |
| 45 | Pedri | Midfielder | Barcelona | 9 | +18.1 ±11.6 | +27.6% | +8.7% | +58.2% | 0.33 |
| 46 | Vinícius Júnior | Forward | Real Madrid | 13 | +17.4 ±6.9 | +25.6% | +9.2% | +10.2% | 4.08 |
| 47 | Victor Osimhen | Forward | Galatasaray | 10 | +17.0 ±8.3 | +22.9% | +11.2% | +6.3% | 4.10 |
| 48 | Dan Burn | Defender | Newcastle | 11 | +16.9 ±8.4 | +14.1% | +19.7% | +2.0% | 1.00 |
| 49 | Erling Haaland | Forward | Man City | 9 | +16.8 ±17.7 | +15.8% | +17.8% | +37.2% | 3.44 |
| 50 | Gabriel Sara | Midfielder | Galatasaray | 8 | +16.4 ±6.7 | +23.6% | +9.2% | -8.6% | 2.00 |
| 51 | Alexandr Mrynskiy | Defender | Kairat Almaty | 8 | +16.3 ±11.1 | -0.7% | +33.4% | -19.6% | 0.62 |
| 52 | Caio Henrique | Defender | Monaco | 9 | +15.8 ±20.4 | +35.6% | -4.0% | +78.0% | 0.11 |
| 53 | João Simões | Midfielder | Sporting CP | 9 | +15.2 ±12.3 | +23.3% | +7.1% | +67.2% | 0.44 |
| 54 | Luis Suárez | Forward | Sporting CP | 9 | +14.7 ±3.4 | +18.8% | +10.7% | +6.3% | 2.78 |
| 55 | Bukayo Saka | Forward | Arsenal | 8 | +14.0 ±10.0 | +16.2% | +11.8% | +12.4% | 3.38 |
| 56 | Nuno Mendes | Defender | Paris | 17 | +13.1 ±9.1 | +19.7% | +6.6% | +5.8% | 1.00 |
| 57 | David Zima | Defender | Slavia Praha | 8 | +12.6 ±5.4 | +23.9% | +1.3% | +85.8% | 0.25 |
| 58 | Luis Díaz | Forward | Bayern München | 11 | +11.7 ±11.5 | +12.7% | +10.6% | +3.3% | 2.73 |
| 59 | Alexis Mac Allister | Midfielder | Liverpool | 9 | +10.9 ±8.3 | +16.0% | +5.9% | +1.0% | 2.22 |
| 60 | Warren Zaïre-Emery | Midfielder | Paris | 15 | +10.8 ±7.7 | +4.9% | +16.6% | +24.3% | 0.87 |
| 61 | Fabián Ruiz | Midfielder | Paris | 8 | +10.3 ±5.5 | +11.5% | +9.2% | +0.2% | 2.12 |
| 62 | Harvey Barnes | Forward | Newcastle | 8 | +10.3 ±10.3 | -1.9% | +22.6% | -0.8% | 2.62 |
| 63 | Maghnes Akliouche | Midfielder | Monaco | 10 | +10.2 ±6.2 | +7.5% | +12.8% | -11.0% | 2.60 |
| 64 | Arda Güler | Midfielder | Real Madrid | 13 | +9.6 ±12.3 | +15.2% | +3.9% | -16.6% | 1.69 |
| 65 | Adem Zorgane | Midfielder | Union SG | 8 | +8.7 ±10.6 | +21.4% | -4.0% | +62.2% | 0.62 |
| 66 | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | Forward | Paris | 14 | +8.5 ±9.0 | +12.5% | +4.5% | +5.1% | 3.21 |
| 67 | Giuliano Simeone | Forward | Atleti | 15 | +8.2 ±10.1 | +2.1% | +14.2% | +13.7% | 1.60 |
| 68 | Pedro Porro | Defender | Tottenham | 9 | +8.2 ±12.1 | +24.1% | -7.7% | -6.8% | 1.44 |
| 69 | Julián Alvarez | Forward | Atleti | 15 | +8.1 ±8.7 | +6.9% | +9.3% | +4.8% | 3.27 |
| 70 | Leandro Andrade | Midfielder | Qarabağ | 9 | +7.9 ±7.9 | +14.5% | +1.4% | +1.0% | 0.78 |
| 71 | Daniel Svensson | Defender | B. Dortmund | 8 | +7.4 ±10.6 | +4.8% | +10.1% | +3.8% | 0.38 |
| 72 | Fermín López | Forward | Barcelona | 10 | +7.2 ±11.8 | +6.1% | +8.3% | +13.3% | 2.20 |
| 73 | Aleksandar Stanković | Midfielder | Club Brugge | 10 | +6.9 ±7.9 | +3.8% | +10.1% | +2.2% | 1.90 |
| 74 | Vitinha | Midfielder | Paris | 17 | +6.3 ±8.2 | +10.9% | +1.8% | +1.2% | 2.47 |
| 75 | Josip Stanišić | Defender | Bayern München | 10 | +5.7 ±6.8 | +8.5% | +3.0% | -1.4% | 0.70 |
| 76 | Christos Tzolis | Forward | Club Brugge | 8 | +5.6 ±6.0 | +6.2% | +5.1% | -8.0% | 3.25 |
| 77 | Francisco Trincão | Forward | Sporting CP | 11 | +4.8 ±10.4 | -0.4% | +10.1% | +1.6% | 2.45 |
| 78 | Pau Cubarsí | Defender | Barcelona | 9 | +4.8 ±9.4 | +11.5% | -2.0% | +63.8% | 0.22 |
| 79 | Eric García | Defender | Barcelona | 10 | +4.7 ±13.4 | +8.5% | +0.8% | -304.8% | 0.60 |
| 80 | Ousmane Dembélé | Forward | Paris | 11 | +4.5 ±14.9 | +2.3% | +6.8% | -10.0% | 2.91 |
| 81 | Aleksandar Pavlović | Midfielder | Bayern München | 14 | +3.5 ±7.1 | +6.3% | +0.7% | -1.9% | 0.93 |
| 82 | Folarin Balogun | Forward | Monaco | 9 | +3.5 ±6.9 | +2.7% | +4.3% | +15.3% | 2.89 |
| 83 | Ibrahima Konaté | Defender | Liverpool | 10 | +3.2 ±5.0 | +8.1% | -1.7% | -2.1% | 0.90 |
| 84 | Panagiotis Retsos | Defender | Olympiacos | 9 | +3.2 ±4.2 | +7.2% | -0.9% | +69.5% | 0.44 |
| 85 | Amar Dedić | Defender | Benfica | 9 | +3.1 ±4.3 | +4.1% | +2.2% | +81.7% | 0.67 |
| 86 | Dávid Hancko | Defender | Atleti | 12 | +3.1 ±7.7 | +12.2% | -6.0% | +0.4% | 0.67 |
| 87 | Felix Nmecha | Midfielder | B. Dortmund | 9 | +2.8 ±7.5 | +7.5% | -2.0% | -9.8% | 1.11 |
| 88 | Virgil van Dijk | Defender | Liverpool | 12 | +2.7 ±11.1 | +1.4% | +4.1% | -0.8% | 1.33 |
| 89 | João Neves | Midfielder | Paris | 13 | +2.5 ±5.3 | +3.3% | +1.8% | -6.0% | 1.15 |
| 90 | Alessandro Bastoni | Defender | Inter | 8 | +2.4 ±13.3 | +7.9% | -3.0% | -1.5% | 0.38 |
| 91 | Morten Hjulmand | Midfielder | Sporting CP | 10 | +2.3 ±15.7 | +13.2% | -8.7% | +79.8% | 0.80 |
| 92 | Carlos Forbs | Forward | Club Brugge | 9 | +2.1 ±9.7 | +3.9% | +0.4% | +5.7% | 1.44 |
| 93 | Gelson Martins | Forward | Olympiacos | 9 | +2.0 ±12.3 | +3.7% | +0.3% | -9.6% | 2.22 |
| 94 | Pablo Barrios | Midfielder | Atleti | 8 | +1.9 ±16.6 | -1.5% | +5.2% | +42.0% | 1.00 |
| 95 | Robert Andrich | Midfielder | Leverkusen | 9 | +1.9 ±7.5 | +9.7% | -5.9% | -13.2% | 0.67 |
| 96 | Joey Veerman | Midfielder | PSV | 8 | +1.7 ±9.7 | +6.4% | -2.9% | +26.6% | 0.88 |
| 97 | Willian Pacho | Defender | Paris | 17 | +1.7 ±12.7 | +10.5% | -7.1% | -2.4% | 0.24 |
| 98 | Moises Caicedo | Midfielder | Chelsea | 9 | +1.6 ±3.8 | +6.2% | -3.1% | +19.5% | 0.89 |
| 99 | Egor Sorokin | Defender | Kairat Almaty | 8 | +1.4 ±14.1 | +7.3% | -4.4% | +81.3% | 0.38 |
| 100 | Patrick Berg | Midfielder | Bodø/Glimt | 12 | +1.4 ±2.9 | +3.2% | -0.3% | +74.8% | 1.33 |
| 101 | Dayot Upamecano | Defender | Bayern München | 12 | +1.2 ±4.9 | +5.6% | -3.2% | -4.8% | 0.75 |
| 102 | Micky van de Ven | Defender | Tottenham | 8 | +1.1 ±6.8 | +2.3% | -0.0% | +5.7% | 0.75 |
| 103 | Robin Le Normand | Defender | Atleti | 9 | +1.0 ±5.2 | +1.1% | +0.8% | -1.8% | 0.44 |
| 104 | Weston McKennie | Midfielder | Juventus | 10 | +1.0 ±8.9 | -4.0% | +5.9% | +21.1% | 1.20 |
| 105 | Vangelis Pavlidis | Forward | Benfica | 9 | +0.7 ±7.6 | -3.8% | +5.3% | +12.5% | 2.11 |
| 106 | Fredrik Aursnes | Midfielder | Benfica | 10 | +0.6 ±17.7 | -5.2% | +6.3% | +56.0% | 1.10 |
| 107 | Berat Djimsiti | Defender | Atalanta | 8 | +0.2 ±9.0 | +8.1% | -7.7% | -287.7% | 0.25 |
| 108 | Marquinhos | Defender | Paris | 15 | +0.2 ±4.9 | -1.0% | +1.3% | +4.8% | 0.47 |
| 109 | Enzo Fernández | Midfielder | Chelsea | 9 | +0.1 ±12.7 | +0.4% | -0.3% | -3.9% | 1.67 |
| 110 | Teun Koopmeiners | Midfielder | Juventus | 9 | +0.1 ±6.0 | -0.1% | +0.4% | +2.7% | 0.89 |
| 111 | Gerard Martín | Defender | Barcelona | 9 | +0.0 ±8.3 | +7.1% | -7.1% | +52.5% | 0.33 |
| 112 | Gonçalo Inácio | Defender | Sporting CP | 11 | +0.0 ±8.6 | +7.0% | -6.9% | +4.2% | 0.36 |
| 113 | Iván Fresneda | Defender | Sporting CP | 10 | -0.1 ±4.7 | -0.4% | +0.2% | +64.6% | 0.40 |
| 114 | Désiré Doué | Forward | Paris | 9 | -0.2 ±16.5 | +6.3% | -6.6% | -7.3% | 2.44 |
| 115 | Éderson | Midfielder | Atalanta | 9 | -0.2 ±12.6 | +2.5% | -2.8% | -10.5% | 0.89 |
| 116 | Federico Valverde | Midfielder | Real Madrid | 13 | -0.3 ±8.2 | -0.9% | +0.4% | +0.0% | 1.08 |
| 117 | Leandro Trossard | Midfielder | Arsenal | 8 | -0.3 ±27.6 | +18.1% | -18.8% | -568.7% | 2.00 |
| 118 | Djed Spence | Defender | Tottenham | 8 | -0.5 ±6.3 | +0.3% | -1.3% | +16.8% | 0.38 |
| 119 | Jonathan Tah | Defender | Bayern München | 12 | -0.5 ±8.9 | -0.7% | -0.2% | -2.8% | 0.25 |
| 120 | Aleix García | Midfielder | Leverkusen | 11 | -0.6 ±7.7 | +6.6% | -7.8% | -22.8% | 0.64 |
| 121 | Ibrahim Maza | Midfielder | Leverkusen | 9 | -0.6 ±11.2 | -2.9% | +1.7% | +20.9% | 2.00 |
| 122 | Abdellah Zoubir | Midfielder | Qarabağ | 10 | -0.9 ±7.2 | +1.9% | -3.7% | +2.1% | 0.90 |
| 123 | Serhou Guirassy | Forward | B. Dortmund | 9 | -0.9 ±14.3 | -14.9% | +13.1% | +23.7% | 1.89 |
| 124 | Nicolás Otamendi | Defender | Benfica | 10 | -1.4 ±7.8 | -3.0% | +0.2% | +19.7% | 0.80 |
| 125 | Samuel Dahl | Defender | Benfica | 9 | -1.4 ±14.3 | +1.3% | -4.0% | -1.0% | 0.33 |
| 126 | Vanderson | Defender | Monaco | 8 | -1.4 ±2.9 | -1.5% | -1.2% | +73.5% | 0.62 |
| 127 | Malick Thiaw | Defender | Newcastle | 9 | -1.8 ±7.7 | -0.3% | -3.3% | -0.1% | 0.67 |
| 128 | Viktor Gyökeres | Forward | Arsenal | 10 | -1.9 ±25.5 | -0.2% | -3.6% | -11.5% | 2.30 |
| 129 | Mario Lemina | Midfielder | Galatasaray | 9 | -2.3 ±15.2 | +0.8% | -5.3% | -7.0% | 0.67 |
| 130 | Jules Koundé | Defender | Barcelona | 10 | -2.4 ±8.4 | -3.2% | -1.6% | -3.4% | 0.60 |
| 131 | Sondre Brunstad Fet | Midfielder | Bodø/Glimt | 11 | -2.4 ±4.2 | -5.7% | +0.9% | +1.5% | 1.55 |
| 132 | Brandon Mechele | Defender | Club Brugge | 10 | -2.5 ±5.3 | -3.5% | -1.4% | +0.2% | 0.30 |
| 133 | Chiquinho | Forward | Olympiacos | 8 | -2.8 ±16.9 | -0.7% | -5.0% | +2.4% | 1.88 |
| 134 | Pierre Kalulu | Defender | Juventus | 10 | -2.8 ±12.9 | -3.2% | -2.3% | +67.8% | 0.30 |
| 135 | Matheus Silva | Defender | Qarabağ | 10 | -2.9 ±5.4 | -5.9% | +0.1% | +1.2% | 0.70 |
| 136 | Derrick Luckassen | Defender | Pafos | 8 | -3.4 ±10.5 | -2.7% | -4.0% | -1.9% | 0.38 |
| 137 | Kevin Mac Allister | Defender | Union SG | 8 | -3.4 ±10.3 | -6.3% | -0.4% | +1.9% | 0.50 |
| 138 | Abdülkerim Bardakcı | Defender | Galatasaray | 11 | -3.6 ±6.3 | +1.3% | -8.6% | -10.3% | 0.55 |
| 139 | Aurélien Tchouaméni | Midfielder | Real Madrid | 13 | -3.6 ±6.7 | -2.9% | -4.3% | +9.4% | 1.23 |
| 140 | Georgiy Sudakov | Midfielder | Benfica | 8 | -3.7 ±11.4 | -7.0% | -0.4% | -9.6% | 1.50 |
| 141 | Odilon Kossounou | Defender | Atalanta | 10 | -3.9 ±10.4 | -8.0% | +0.3% | +65.4% | 0.30 |
| 142 | Marc Cucurella | Defender | Chelsea | 8 | -4.0 ±16.8 | -9.8% | +1.7% | +60.0% | 0.12 |
| 143 | Elvin Jafarguliyev | Defender | Qarabağ | 10 | -4.1 ±4.5 | -1.4% | -6.8% | -4.0% | 0.60 |
| 144 | Cristian Romero | Defender | Tottenham | 8 | -4.5 ±8.7 | -8.5% | -0.5% | -1.2% | 0.75 |
| 145 | Ryan Gravenberch | Midfielder | Liverpool | 11 | -4.7 ±10.1 | -2.6% | -6.8% | +4.5% | 1.00 |
| 146 | Odin Bjørtuft | Defender | Bodø/Glimt | 12 | -4.9 ±12.8 | -1.4% | -8.4% | -63.3% | 0.33 |
| 147 | Eberechi Eze | Midfielder | Arsenal | 9 | -5.2 ±11.3 | +6.7% | -17.1% | -5.8% | 1.56 |
| 148 | Anthony Gordon | Forward | Newcastle | 9 | -5.5 ±6.8 | -6.6% | -4.5% | -0.2% | 2.56 |
| 149 | Camilo Duran | Forward | Qarabağ | 9 | -5.5 ±6.8 | -5.0% | -6.1% | +5.5% | 1.78 |
| 150 | Maximiliano Araújo | Midfielder | Sporting CP | 11 | -5.5 ±19.4 | +4.5% | -15.6% | -3.4% | 0.73 |
| 151 | Gabriel | Defender | Arsenal | 11 | -5.6 ±13.6 | -6.0% | -5.3% | -3.0% | 0.64 |
| 152 | Antoine Griezmann | Forward | Atleti | 10 | -6.1 ±10.6 | -1.5% | -10.6% | +2.8% | 2.30 |
| 153 | Joel Ordoñez | Defender | Club Brugge | 10 | -6.2 ±17.2 | -9.4% | -2.9% | -4.9% | 0.40 |
| 154 | Kenan Yıldız | Forward | Juventus | 8 | -6.7 ±11.6 | -7.2% | -6.3% | -5.8% | 2.62 |
| 155 | Geny Catamo | Forward | Sporting CP | 9 | -6.9 ±13.6 | -9.4% | -4.4% | +57.4% | 2.33 |
| 156 | Andrea Cambiaso | Defender | Juventus | 8 | -7.3 ±8.5 | +0.1% | -14.7% | +44.9% | 0.75 |
| 157 | Kasper Høgh | Forward | Bodø/Glimt | 12 | -7.4 ±6.5 | -10.9% | -3.8% | -7.2% | 2.08 |
| 158 | Lloyd Kelly | Defender | Juventus | 9 | -7.5 ±3.0 | -5.4% | -9.6% | -6.3% | 0.44 |
| 159 | Declan Rice | Midfielder | Arsenal | 11 | -7.8 ±7.2 | -6.3% | -9.3% | -10.5% | 1.00 |
| 160 | Joshua Kimmich | Midfielder | Bayern München | 13 | -8.3 ±9.7 | -6.9% | -9.8% | +34.4% | 0.85 |
| 161 | Ademola Lookman | Forward | Atleti | 12 | -8.4 ±15.8 | -4.0% | -12.8% | -17.9% | 2.33 |
| 162 | Vlad Dragomir | Midfielder | Pafos | 8 | -8.7 ±15.6 | -4.6% | -12.9% | +1.2% | 1.00 |
| 163 | Ayoub El Kaabi | Forward | Olympiacos | 8 | -8.9 ±8.8 | -9.0% | -8.9% | -21.6% | 3.12 |
| 164 | Davinson Sánchez | Defender | Galatasaray | 11 | -9.3 ±5.0 | -13.5% | -5.2% | -3.9% | 0.73 |
| 165 | Håkon Evjen | Midfielder | Bodø/Glimt | 12 | -9.9 ±9.2 | -10.0% | -9.9% | -6.4% | 1.17 |
| 166 | Marcos Llorente | Midfielder | Atleti | 13 | -9.9 ±7.8 | -6.4% | -13.4% | -10.2% | 1.00 |
| 167 | Joelinton | Midfielder | Newcastle | 8 | -10.5 ±23.0 | -18.5% | -2.5% | +15.6% | 1.00 |
| 168 | Bradley Barcola | Forward | Paris | 12 | -10.7 ±10.6 | -12.4% | -8.9% | -13.9% | 1.92 |
| 169 | Marko Janković | Midfielder | Qarabağ | 8 | -10.7 ±13.7 | -8.9% | -12.4% | -5.9% | 1.00 |
| 170 | Waldemar Anton | Defender | B. Dortmund | 9 | -11.0 ±8.4 | -9.8% | -12.3% | -7.3% | 0.44 |
| 171 | Álvaro Carreras | Defender | Real Madrid | 8 | -11.3 ±14.2 | -13.0% | -9.6% | +56.9% | 0.38 |
| 172 | Sandro Tonali | Midfielder | Newcastle | 11 | -11.7 ±8.0 | -12.2% | -11.3% | +6.3% | 1.27 |
| 173 | Edmond Tapsoba | Defender | Leverkusen | 9 | -13.2 ±9.3 | -10.6% | -15.8% | -159.7% | 0.44 |
| 174 | Jens Petter Hauge | Forward | Bodø/Glimt | 11 | -13.4 ±19.8 | -2.4% | -24.4% | -29.7% | 1.73 |
| 175 | Kyriani Sabbe | Defender | Club Brugge | 8 | -14.1 ±6.2 | -10.2% | -18.1% | -15.2% | 0.50 |
| 176 | Lukáš Provod | Midfielder | Slavia Praha | 8 | -14.5 ±4.8 | -22.1% | -6.9% | +72.8% | 2.50 |
| 177 | Jeremy Doku | Midfielder | Man City | 8 | -16.8 ±26.2 | -24.7% | -8.9% | -3.7% | 1.12 |
| 178 | Ismail Jakobs | Defender | Galatasaray | 10 | -17.2 ±22.2 | +3.5% | -37.9% | +79.4% | 0.20 |
| 179 | Jarell Quansah | Defender | Leverkusen | 10 | -17.2 ±9.5 | -30.7% | -3.8% | -112.8% | 0.40 |
| 180 | Ramy Bensebaini | Defender | B. Dortmund | 9 | -18.1 ±27.5 | -32.2% | -3.9% | +3.4% | 0.33 |
| 181 | Arthur Theate | Defender | Frankfurt | 8 | -18.6 ±12.8 | -28.7% | -8.5% | +17.6% | 0.38 |
| 182 | Dean Huijsen | Defender | Real Madrid | 8 | -44.3 ±34.0 | -10.5% | -78.0% | +27.2% | 0.25 |
| 183 | Rodinei | Defender | Olympiacos | 8 | -51.1 ±21.1 | -33.5% | -68.8% | +45.6% | 0.12 |
| 184 | Anatoliy Trubin | Goalkeeper | Benfica | 10 | saves only | - | - | -0.2% | 3.5 saves |
| 185 | David Raya | Goalkeeper | Arsenal | 14 | saves only | - | - | +66.3% | 2.6 saves |
| 186 | Dominik Kotarski | Goalkeeper | Copenhagen | 8 | saves only | - | - | +85.3% | 3.8 saves |
| 187 | Gianluigi Donnarumma | Goalkeeper | Man City | 8 | saves only | - | - | +86.6% | 2.8 saves |
| 188 | Gregor Kobel | Goalkeeper | B. Dortmund | 10 | saves only | - | - | +79.4% | 3.0 saves |
| 189 | Guglielmo Vicario | Goalkeeper | Tottenham | 9 | saves only | - | - | +31.2% | 3.2 saves |
| 190 | Jan Oblak | Goalkeeper | Atleti | 12 | saves only | - | - | +91.3% | 2.6 saves |
| 191 | Joan García | Goalkeeper | Barcelona | 8 | saves only | - | - | +38.5% | 2.2 saves |
| 192 | Kostas Tzolakis | Goalkeeper | Olympiacos | 9 | saves only | - | - | +87.1% | 2.2 saves |
| 193 | Manuel Neuer | Goalkeeper | Bayern München | 11 | saves only | - | - | +81.4% | 3.4 saves |
| 194 | Marco Carnesecchi | Goalkeeper | Atalanta | 10 | saves only | - | - | +55.0% | 3.4 saves |
| 195 | Mateusz Kochalski | Goalkeeper | Qarabağ | 10 | saves only | - | - | +82.2% | 4.5 saves |
| 196 | Matvei Safonov | Goalkeeper | Paris | 11 | saves only | - | - | +73.3% | 3.2 saves |
| 197 | Nick Pope | Goalkeeper | Newcastle | 8 | saves only | - | - | +60.2% | 3.6 saves |
| 198 | Nikita Haikin | Goalkeeper | Bodø/Glimt | 12 | saves only | - | - | +93.3% | 5.7 saves |
| 199 | Philipp Köhn | Goalkeeper | Monaco | 8 | saves only | - | - | +84.5% | 3.6 saves |
| 200 | Rui Silva | Goalkeeper | Sporting CP | 11 | saves only | - | - | +90.0% | 3.1 saves |
| 201 | Thibaut Courtois | Goalkeeper | Real Madrid | 11 | saves only | - | - | +81.5% | 5.4 saves |
| 202 | Unai Simón | Goalkeeper | Athletic Club | 8 | saves only | - | - | +59.9% | 3.1 saves |
| 203 | Uğurcan Çakır | Goalkeeper | Galatasaray | 11 | saves only | - | - | +90.9% | 4.2 saves |
| 204 | Yann Sommer | Goalkeeper | Inter | 10 | saves only | - | - | +75.2% | 2.7 saves |
Starts = matches started. Skill = how much lower our CRPS is than the baseline's on the same matches, in percent, so positive means the model wins. The smaller number next to the score is one standard error. Goalkeepers take no shots, so they carry no score and are measured on saves on their own pages. Tap any column header to sort.
How the score works, and how to read it
A high score does not mean a better player. It means a player whose output our models can call match by match. The score compares two forecasters on the matches a player started: our model, which publishes a full probability distribution for his shots and shots on target once the team sheet is out, and a baseline that knows only his position and how long he is expected to be on the pitch. We measure both with CRPS, a standard score for probabilistic forecasts, and report how much better the model is, in percent. So the score really answers one question: how much does knowing WHO he is add on top of knowing WHAT he plays.
Read the score with the standard error next to it. The skill is a ratio of two small numbers, and it is much noisier for players who barely shoot: across this holdout the spread of the score is roughly three times wider for players under 0.2 shots a match than for those above 1.2. That is why the shots-per-match column sits on this board. A defender at the top of the table is usually a defender our model correctly expects to shoot almost never, which is a real win, but it is not the same measurement as a striker at the top.
The anytime-scorer skill is published alongside and deliberately kept out of the score. On a base rate of a few percent, a single season is too thin to separate players. Everything here is season level and aggregate: these pages report the accuracy of our own forecasts, not a match-by-match statistics feed.
Club title odds and the full league-phase board live on the Champions League simulations page, and how the models work on the methodology page.